That Blue and White Kool-Aid Tastes Kinda Funny
by Maize n Brew Dave on Oct 15, 2008 11:30 AM CDT
in Michigan Football
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PrintLong time friend of the 'Brew and proprietor of Black Shoe Diaries, the alpha dog of all Penn State Blogs, Mike is getting excited about this weekend's game against Michigan. In fact someone better get him a towel.
I'm sorry Michigan, but you don't stand a chance in this game. Penn State is not looking past you. Your defense will not hold up against the Penn State juggernaut. There is only one coach that has successfully taken the Big Ten by storm with the Spread, and his initials are not R.R.
Not to point out the obvious, but I wouldn't suggest that the initials behind the "spread" are J.P. either. Jay/Joe Paterno aren't responsible for this. Darryll Clark is. Just as Michael Robinson was in 2005. Jay Pa's incompetence has been well chronicled by BSD over the years. Even a moron can catch lightning in a bottle from time to time (Ex. A - Moeller, Andy: coaching Jake Long). So I'm not going to let the "spread" comment go unchallenged, especially when Rodriguez is the guy that is credited with inventing the spread. Jay Pa's still the worst position coach in the Big Ten. If you wish to argue this point, I present the following evidence.
I'm just saying.
But, in all fairness, Mike is probably right. Michigan is terrible this year. The offense is a mess. They're unranked. The Defense believes third and long means nap time. Stevie Brown and Charles Stewart are our safeties. Our offensive line hasn't started in the same alignment all year. Steven Threet hurt his elbow and Nick Sherridan couldn't hit the ground if he fell off a cliff. Our defensive coordinator likes to blitz on every possible down, except those downs where pressure makes sense. Our offensive coordinator thinks touchdowns are scored sideline to sideline rather than endzone to endzone. Sky falls. Seas boil. Moon as blood. yada yada yada.
On paper, yeah, Penn State is a much better team than Michigan.
People can point to the winning streak as evidence that Michigan will win. I'm in the camp that thinks winning streaks may have a psychological edge going into a game, or maybe even in a close game, but for the most part don't mean jack. I'll second Mike on this one:
Look, you have a nine game winning streak going and that's all. The events of eight years ago have no bearing on this Saturday. You could say your defensive line owned Anthony Morelli or that Mike Hart owned our defensive line, but those guys are gone now.
True. The team is brand new. This is a new group with new strengths and mostly flaws at this point. Michigan, on paper, shouldn't win this game. But stranger things have happened, a few of which I've borne witness to personally.
Colorado v. Michigan, 1994 - How many times does a hail mary pass work? If you're lucky you'll see one of them live. In your life time. I saw mine from the wrong end of a 27-26 Colorado win during my freshman year. Sucked the air and life out of the whole damn place. The only solace was watching the two Colorado fans dumb enough to rush the field get the holy hell pounded out of them my the State Police.
Stanford v. USC, 2007 - Ohhhh, I couldn't look away from this one. It was just so beautifully ugly. Stanford was and is the worst team in the PAC-10. USC the gold standard. The largest point spread in NCAA history. So what happens? Stanford upsets the #2 ranked Trojans 24-23 in the Coliseum.
Appalachian State v. Michigan, 2007 - obv.
Louisiana-Monroe v. Alabama, 2007 - Saban seems to have recovered from losing to a 24 1/2 point dog, at home. But still, this loss stung the Tide faithful even more than losing seasons under Shula.
Vanderbilt v. Georgia, 2006 - Homecoming for the Dawgs, the Jocks were supposed to stomp on the Commodores and reclaim their spot on the Greek Counsel. Yeah, not so much. The Nerds ruined homecoming, got the girl, and sent No. 16 Georgia eventually into the Chick-fil-A bowl, which despite being absolutely delicious, is not where the Dawgs wanted to be.
Notre Dame v. Boston College - Pick a game, really.
Something else is missing...
what was that game?
oh yeah....
Penn State v. Michigan, 2005 - Something about a #8 ranked team, undefeated, supposed to steam roll a crappy young Michigan team, National Championship train w000000000000t!1!!!11!! PSU had the spread offense all up in this biatch, Michigan had a young mistake prone robot quarterback, underachieving defense, and Michigan had just lost to Minnesota, Wisconsin, a bad Notre Dame team and could've easily been 2-4. Michigan was supposed to get blasted. How'd that end again?
via lh3.ggpht.com
Now do I think Michigan's going to repeat it's 2005 performance? Probably not. There are too many things that have gone wrong this year. And frankly, the coaching hasn't been that good. But Michigan's shown the ability to string together quarters of competency before. And if this just happens to be the game they do it for four of them, well, then you never know.
Confidence can be both a blessing and a curse. Sometimes it leads you to new heights, as it did when Michigan thumped Florida in the Citrus Bowl or to new depths when a small school from North Carolina punked the Wolerines in their own house. It's a dangerous thing.
Bad or not, never take a talented team lightly. Michigan may be bad right now, but I'd have to believe the Kool-Aid is spiked with some kind of hallucinogen if anyone's going to claim this team doesn't have talent. If you're looking for further evidence that anything can happen, ask Peter over at Burnt Orange Nation about those losses to A&M, Rock M Nation about losing to Oklahoma State, or any MSU fan about the Spartans' bizzarre pattern of swapping wins and losses with Northwestern.
It's not out of the realm of possibility, is it? So, before you take too long a drag on that Kool-Aid, just consider the alternative.
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By the 3rd quarter on Saturday
You Wolf fans will be wishing it was only as bad as the Toledo game.
Awesome.
Write more.
"I honestly think the "Spread HD" is going to work pretty well, and we’ll be just fine this year". - 8-27-2008
Can we just put this on BSD
to save leaving the site?
"I honestly think the "Spread HD" is going to work pretty well, and we’ll be just fine this year". - 8-27-2008
Huh?
“Something about a #8 ranked team, undefeated, supposed to steam roll a crappy young Michigan team, National Championship train”
Penn State finished ranked #3. Michigan finished ranked just outside the top 25, and before the bowl game choke, they were ranked #20. #20 beating #3 on a last-second score, at home (for the #20 team), is not that crazy. Michigan should’ve been ranked higher when they played Penn State – by the end of the year, their losses didn’t look too bad. Anyone who thought that Penn State was going to “steamroll” Michigan in 2005 was delusional.
This isn’t 2005. In 2005, Michigan lost to Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Notre Dame before playing Penn State. All of those teams would end up being known to be decent teams by year’s end, and the losses suddenly don’t look that bad.
Nothing will make the Toledo loss “not look bad.”
But most importantly: this game is at home for Penn State. If it had been in Happy Valley in 2005, Penn State would’ve won then, too.
by Bleed Blue 'n White on Oct 15, 2008 3:19 PM CDT reply actions
A couple of things you're missing
First – In 2005 Michigan was unranked. PSU was ranked #8 and undefeated. And as for the point spread, PSU was giving points that game and expected to make a run as the Big Ten’s title contender. So, yes, I think it’s fair to say Penn State was expected to steamroll a mistake prone Michigan team that couldn’t defend against the spread offense PSU was running at the time.
Second – How the season plays out is anyone’s guess. PSU could drop a couple of games and end up on the outside looking in. Michigan could win a few games and all of sudden be respectable.
Is that going to happen? Probably not. The point was, it’s possible.
Third – I seem to recall Joe Pa getting time put back on the board during the 2005 game as well. Blame him too. Either that or blame your corners for giving up the inside. That’s what we’ve been doing.
Fourth – Penn State lost to Toledo too. And Rutgers before they even had a football program (1988). Both teams have had bad losses. App State and Toledo are ours. No one’s polishing the turd Michigan left against the Rockets. I’m just suggesting they’re too talented to suck that bad for two full games in a row. A talented team is always a dangerous team, no matter how bad they played the game before. That’s why I pointed to A&M, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Ole Miss, Oregon State, etc. Talent is scary when it works, and Michigan’s got plenty of it. Whether they can get it to work (not likely) is the big question.
by Maize n Brew Dave on Oct 15, 2008 3:54 PM CDT up reply actions
“First – In 2005 Michigan was unranked. PSU was ranked #8 and undefeated.”
Michigan was unranked because they lost to Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Notre Dame. Everyone thought Notre Dame sucked that year, so the loss was a big deal. People weren’t too keen on Wisconsin or Minnesota either, so it looked bad. This was, however, stupid – as Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame all looked half-decent at the time, but people were still hung-up on preseason expectations.
For an unbiased look at it, at the time, that week, Michigan was ranked #43 in Colley’s rankings. That’s unranked, obviously, but it’s still an “average-to-good” team.
Michigan, this year, right now, is ranked #88. Michigan was unranked in 2005, but they were miles better than this year’s Michigan. I’m not trying to insult Michigan this year. I just think it’s insulting to Michigan, in 2005, to suggest that because they beat Penn State that this team can beat Penn State. Michigan in 2005 was not a bad team.
“Third – I seem to recall Joe Pa getting time put back on the board during the 2005 game as well.”
Psst – you brought this up. I didn’t. I don’t have a bug up my rear about this. I don’t care. There was no problem with what Carr did there. It was intelligent, and perfectly legal.. I spent the weeks after this game telling other Penn State blogs to shut the heck up about it. It was a close game the entire way that the home team won. Not that surprising, considering we had been playing close games all year on the road.
If you’re responding to someone else, please reply to them, or indicate that it’s to other people. I don’t appreciate being lumped in with other Penn State fans who think the world is out to get them.
“Fourth – Penn State lost to Toledo too.”
Penn State, in 2008, did not lose to Toledo, in 2008. That’s all that matters. Toledo, this year, is not a good team. They’re not even close to being a respectable team. That’s the point – in 2005, Michigan lost to respectable teams. They may have been unranked, but it would be the height of stupidity to believe they would be steamrolled, at home. In 2008, Michigan lost to a bad team. And it’s not crazy to think they’ll be steamrolled on the road, against a very good team.
“I’m just suggesting they’re too talented to suck that bad for two full games in a row.”
They may have some talent, but they’re not experienced. And experience is what you need in order to avoid complete and utter Yakity Sax hilarity when facing the largest home crowd in college football.
I’d also point out that they don’t have that much talent at linebacker, which is the one position you really, really need speed at in order to deal with most of the plays Penn State runs – traditional screens, bubble screens, end arounds, and option runs.
by Bleed Blue 'n White on Oct 15, 2008 6:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Look up! There goes the point, right over your head!
The point being that anything is possible, albeit highly unlikely. How unlikely was it that App St beat Michigan last year? Or that Stanford beat USC? Or that Syracuse beat ANY team? But they all happened. Michigan beating PSU is not out of the realm of possibility, although it probably ain’t happening.
Look up! There goes the point of the response, right over your head!
The point being that Michigan’s victory in 2005 was sooo much more likely than the possibility of Michigan winning in 2008 that it’s not even funny.
by Bleed Blue 'n White on Oct 15, 2008 8:41 PM CDT up reply actions
um... dude....
you just proved my point.
by Maize n Brew Dave on Oct 15, 2008 11:23 PM CDT up reply actions
I think we’re just taking “anything is possible” and “2005 upset is more likely than 2008 upset” and looking at them with different perspectives.
In reality, the 2005 upset was more likely. What we have to consider here is the degree of just how possible each upset is.
I think we can all agree that UM doesn’t look quite as good as their 2005 counterpart.
Thus, the possibility of upsetting a ranked PSU team (that is arguably better than the 2005 team) at Happy Valley is much smaller, however possible.
And by "arguably better than the 2005 team"
I’m referring to the PSU squad.
For the record
We lost to Rutgers in ‘88 b/c Tom Bill got hurt and we had to put in Tony Sacca. Please do not dredge that really, super, horrible memory up. Let’s just talk about these two teams this year. Tom Bill is a recovering alcoholic who is now a teacher, husband and father and doing very well. God knows where Tony Sacca is. And who cares?
That's how the 2005 game ended?
I seem to remember it ending with a bribe from Lloyd Carr to Dave Witvoet, to somehow elongate the clock. I seem to remember the biggest sham in college sports. But hey, that’s just how I remember those dirty bunch of Michigan scumbags stealing a win.
So...
Did JoePa bribe him 2 minutes before Lloyd Carr? Dude must’ve made out like a bandit. So much success so far this season and PSU fans are still crying over spilled milk. Get over it…
huh?
I never heard of anyone expecting the 2005 team to “steamroll” the Wolverines considering we barely eeked by Northwestern had it not been for a DWill touchdown to seal the game for us. But this year, yes, we expect to “steamroll” the Wolverines into the ground. I wouldn’t be surprised if Joe Pa kept passing into the end zone in the fourth quarter.
by NittanyWhiteOut.com on Oct 15, 2008 3:24 PM CDT reply actions
How many batteries does it take to beat Michigan?
I-AA
by Stately NOVA Lion on Oct 16, 2008 9:12 AM CDT reply actions
hur hur
Must’ve sucked to lose to Michigan in 2007, huh? Especially since we were starting a freshman at quarterback and lost to a 1-AA team a couple of weeks earlier. Must be frustrating to know that they were able to do what Penn State couldn’t.
by Maize n Brew Dave on Oct 16, 2008 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions
yea a freshman quarterback who LEFT scUM...
because that Snake-in-the-Grass of a coach left his alma mater to come to scUM to sell snake oil. But hey….I guess Threet is a real viable option to Mallett. Also, DickRod’s such a good guy that you had a lineman leave to play for OHIO STATE because of lack of “family values”……that hasn’t happened since WWII.
by Stately NOVA Lion on Oct 16, 2008 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions
The 2005 Comparisons
In 2005 Michigan lost to Notre Dame (9-3, including losses to USC and Ohio State), Wisconsin (10-3, won the Cap. One Bowl), Ohio State (10-2, PSU and Texas, won a BCS game) and Minnesota (a decent 7-5). That’s the whole regular season now mind you.
In 2008, Michigan has lost to Utah, Notre Dame, Toledo and Illinois, so far.
In 2005 your quarterback was Chad Henne, one of the most sought after recruits in the country, Mario Manningham was the third best reciever on your team and you had Mike Hart.
I think looking back at 2005 is grasping at the last straw.
"I honestly think the "Spread HD" is going to work pretty well, and we’ll be just fine this year". - 8-27-2008
Welllllll.....
Utah is undefeated this year. Wisconsin is 3-3. Illinois is 3-3. Toledo is 2-4. It ain’t a stellar set of records, but it is what it is. Utah, Wisconsin and Illinois should all go bowling this year, so the argument that one schedule better prepared michigan for the 2005 game than the 2008 game doesn’t hold a lot of water. The point that Michigan was better in 2005 than its record isn’t lost on me either. I’m saying that Michigan is better than it’s 2008 record as well.
In terms of QB situation, Henne was a more sought after recruit but it’s not like Threet’s a walk on (that’s Sherridan). Threet was an Elite 11 quarterback with a solid set of offers. Based on what I’ve seen from both, this early in their careers the only difference between the two is the fact that Henne’s freshman and sophomore years had simply outstanding receivers who covered up a lot of his mistakes. Henne was brutal the first half of the 2005 season. Manningham was a freshman (and I’d say he and Junior Hemmingway are about the same at this point in their careers), steve breaston couldn’t run routes worth a damn (and was basically a taller Martaveous Odoms) and Jason Avant was basically Greg Matthews with better hands. And Mike Hart was a sophomore and has basically been replaced by Sam McGuffie. There’s really no difference skill position wise at this point. The difference is on the O-Line and in execution.
No one’s grasping at straws. I use the 2005 game as evidence that upsets happen, especially when a good team is taking on a bad, but talented team.
Is Penn State better this year than in 2005? Probably. Is Michigan worse today than in 2005? Definitely, but the margins on that “worseness” are pretty slim.
If Michigan plays to its talent, they can make this a game. If PSU plays down, streak be damned, they’re going to be in trouble. But if it’s PSU’s best against Michigan’s best at this point, PSU wins. If Michigan plays bad, PSU wins. But if Michigan plays well and PSU doesn’t, this could be interesting.
That’s been my point all along.
by Maize n Brew Dave on Oct 16, 2008 10:36 AM CDT up reply actions
Is Michigan worse today than in 2005? Definitely, but the margins on that "worseness" are pretty slim. You’re dreaming. Seriously, that’s denial talking.
The difference is on the O-Line That’s a pretty big difference.
Mike Hart has basically been replaced by Sam McGuffie? Are you serious? Come on man.
My point was that Michigan had lost to three good teams by 7 (ND) points and 3 (Wisconsin and Minnesota) points. So far this year your guys have been spanked by Utah, Notre Dame & Illinois and were upset by Toledo. That might not have been a great Michigan team in 2005 but it was a good team. This team is just not that good.
It’s not that you can’t see the difference between the two teams, I think it’s that you don’t want to.
"I honestly think the "Spread HD" is going to work pretty well, and we’ll be just fine this year". - 8-27-2008
WTF?
“Is Michigan worse today than in 2005? Definitely, but the margins on that "worseness" are pretty slim.”
I can’t tell if this is delusional belief that Michigan doesn’t suck this year, or insane disloyalty to the 2005 Michigan team.
Michigan in 2005 was a good team. They would have demolished this year’s Toledo. They would’ve crushed this year’s Notre Dame. They certainly would’ve put up a better fight against Illinois.
Just look at the statistical rankings for an idea: like I said, Michigan ranked #43 in Colley’s rankings at the time in 2005. They rank #88 now.
The margins of “worseness” are slim? They’re a third of the league! Michigan in 2005 was basically in the top 3rd of college football (or very close). Michigan in 2008 is in the bottom 3rd (or very close) of college football.
by Bleed Blue 'n White on Oct 16, 2008 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions
I could be wrong here....
but I think the comparison as far as “worseness” goes, is based on the talent on the team. I think if the same group of players we have right now were running the offense Debord and Carr had in place last year, the record would be different. Would they still be having problems..yes, but not as many. I am not going to say Michigan is a good team, but the talent is better than their record.
The margin between Chad Henne as a sophomore and Threet/Sheridan this year is “slim”? Really?
Michigan’s wide receivers are also a serious step down (not that they’re bad, but Avant and Manningham were very good and had a lot more experience), but honestly, the QB difference is enough.
It’s also not just the offense, either.
by Bleed Blue 'n White on Oct 16, 2008 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Again...
from a pure talent stand point.. I don’t think it is as big as you want it to be. Experience is not the same as talent.
True Avant and Mannigham were better, but if memory serves me Avant was a senior (at least a junior that year) so he had a lot more time in his system. Manningham was better, but he was also getting passes from a quarterback that was better suited for the system they were playing.
And I will agree its not just the offense. Our special teams are terrible this year(I really miss Breaston there) but I won’t sell out our defense. Considering they have played 3 times as long as our offense has this year I’ll give them a crappy game (or season).
“Experience is not the same as talent.”
Well, yeah, but unless they’ve invented a time machine I’m unaware of, you can’t fix a lack of experience, either. If a team had talent, and experience, and was just struggling to learn a new system, to adapt to new coaches – then you could believe they’d pull it together and win when they weren’t expected to. But that’s not Michigan this year.
"but I won’t sell out our defense. "
Really? Because the linebackers look pretty poor at play recognition.
by Bleed Blue 'n White on Oct 16, 2008 6:11 PM CDT up reply actions
If you are going to quote,
do so the right way, I said
“but I won’t sell out our defense. Considering they have played 3 times as long as our offense has this year”
I didn’t say they were great or even good (which seems to be what you are implying) I meant its hard to really give an honest critique considering how long they are on the field.
nor have I at any point argued that we were going to win this weekend, I was just stating that the talent levels are nearly the same. I believe the original poster was the one saying that there was still enough talent on the team to pull out a win.
I don’t like quoting long swaths of text. I should’ve been more pointed in my response, though – I mentioned the linebackers and play recognition because I don’t think that really goes down as the players are on the field longer. That, and they were pretty bad early on in the games, too.
“nor have I at any point argued that we were going to win this weekend, I was just stating that the talent levels are nearly the same.”
I still don’t agree there. Just at QB alone, Threet/Sheridan aren’t even really close to Henne in terms of talent. Henne was the 3rd highest ranked QB in the nation, Threet was more like 9th or so – while that might not seem a lot, the talent distribution is steep, and so realistically, there’s much more difference between #3 and #9 than #9 and #15, or even #21.
On the offensive line, I don’t think the talent levels are even close.
by Bleed Blue 'n White on Oct 16, 2008 10:12 PM CDT up reply actions
I would agree
With the offensive line statement, i think that is the probably the biggest problem with the offense. Granted there have been lots of mistakes just about everywhere, I still think if Threet and company had more time they might be doing a little better.
It’s pretty much a universal truth in college football, and it gets overlooked way too often. Wide receivers pretty much don’t matter. Running backs don’t matter that much, either. Fast guys (as in, faster than the opponent’s defenders) are common, if you’re looking for them (which prior to 2005, Penn State wasn’t, which was a mistake). Big guys, however, are rare. It’s true in the NFL, and it’s even more true in college football.
You need two things in college football for an offense to succeed – a quarterback and an offensive line, and the offensive line is probably way more important in college (though dumbass quarterbacks can kill you).
That’s why I really don’t get the “Michigan has talent” thing. No offense, really – McGuffie’s a serious talent, the WRs are easily good enough, but Threet and the offensive line would be backups on the 2005 Michigan team. Some might not make the team.
The game entirely comes down to Michigan’s defense versus Penn State’s offense, and that game, I think, comes entirely down to Michigan’s linebackers.
by Bleed Blue 'n White on Oct 17, 2008 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions
by the way...
I was reading bowl projections on SI.com earlier today and one of the writers picked Penn State and Texas….how sweet would that be for Paterno to get Texas in the NC game(for history’s sake that is)
Here it is
Michigan’s defense is tough. Good enough for them to beat almost any team on their schedule, if their offense will cooperate. Penn State once went 3-8 with one of the best defenses in the country.
They have talent on their offense, but it’s green. Penn State has grown men everyewhere on the field, Michigan really doesn’t. You take an 18 year old talent, and I’ll take a 21 year old man, and I win most every time. Are there exceptions, sure, but thus far Michigan has been seeing the rule, not the exception to it (Pat White being the exception).
If they had kept Lloyd Carr, they would be no worse than 4-2 right now, maybe even 6-0. The coaching switch (for whatever reason) cost them both skill guys and offensive line guys in addition to the all the guys they lost anyway, which was a preseason top five team based upon how experienced it was. That’s the difference between 2005 and 2008.
"I honestly think the "Spread HD" is going to work pretty well, and we’ll be just fine this year". - 8-27-2008
Yes...
I agree with everything you said and wish I could have said it as succinctly as you did. Thank you.
2005 to 2008 PSU Comparisons
2008 team has a significantly better O-line, not that 2005 was a bad one but this line is likely the best in the Big 10 if not the country.
2005 team started 3 freshman receivers, 2008 team has 4 senior receivers.
Clark has yet to show any inconsistencies. MRob was great but had some moments of poor judgment.
I would say the 2005 defense was better than 2008 but I’m not sure. The LB may not be as good but the D-line is phenomenal. Maybin and Evans are All-American caliber D-ends
To-date this has shown to be the most complete team for PSU since 1994.
As far as upsets you mention, most of those fall in the category of superior team overlooking, not prepared for, not pumped for inferior team. With most of the PSU fans and players sick of hearing about Michigan always winning, I just don’t see that happening here.
Best argument so far
“2005 team started 3 freshman receivers, 2008 team has 4 senior receivers.”
a tip of the hat to you sir.
I’d argue the 2005 Defense was better, but I agree the 2008 O-Line is probably the best in the conference right now.
by Maize n Brew Dave on Oct 16, 2008 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions
WRs
And although it’s the same guys from 05 to 08, the chemistry between them and Clark is way better than it ever was with Mrob & Morelli
Really the play of Clark and development of him as a leader is the biggest positive surprise and the reason PSU is where it is.
The best argument regarding Michigan’s chances versus Michigan’s 2005 chances is this:
This game is at home for Penn State.
That, alone, makes any comparison to 2005 completely pointless.
by Bleed Blue 'n White on Oct 16, 2008 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions
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