Gut Reaction: Schedule 2009

by Beauford on May 19, 2009 1:44 PM CDT in Michigan Football Comment 7 comments

Hey, do you remember when going over the Michigan schedule for the upcoming year was a simple matter of trying to decide how many points Michigan should win by? Yeah, I do too. The days were brighter, the grass greener. We could just hang out all summer knowing that Michigan should probably at least win the Big Ten, and often, they did. We would just sit out by the pool, sipping cool refreshing drinks, disparaging Iowa. You know the drill. Then a fucking mountain lion with a terminator head and a jetpack came blazing into our little Wysteria Lane (housewifes, what?) brandishing too many automatic weapons to count screaming 3-9. He tore that shit up. Now we live, barely, huddled around burning compost in a steel drum, trying to figure out what the hell happened, and how we can move back into our nice pad with the pool that the Mountain Lion now lives in. Mocking. Always mocking.

Well, step one in the reacquisition of our standing starts in 2009, and like it or not will be determined by this schedule:

Sat. 09/05/09 Time TBA	Western Michigan
Sat. 09/12/09 Time TBA	Notre Dame
Sat. 09/19/09 Time TBA	Eastern Michigan
Sat. 09/26/09 Time TBA	Indiana
Sat. 10/03/09 Time TBA	at Michigan State
Sat. 10/10/09 7:00 p.m. CT	at Iowa
Sat. 10/17/09 Time TBA	Delaware State
Sat. 10/24/09 Time TBA	Penn State
Sat. 10/31/09 Time TBA	at Illinois
Sat. 11/07/09 Time TBA	Purdue
Sat. 11/14/09 Time TBA	at Wisconsin
Sat. 11/21/09 Time TBA	Ohio State

Six wins gets us back to a bowl game, which is at least the first step to regaining a modicum of respect. Do you see six wins there? I think I do. Let's do some gut-reaction predictions based on flimsy evidence!

Western? Probably a win, although I thought Toledo was "probably a win" too. However, the odds that we're going up against a Utah-esque BCS buster are slim here, especially given that the Broncos will be starting a new QB just like us.

Notre Dame is, on paper, most likely a loss. As has been detailed on this blog, their offensive line is 100% experienced, and Clausen is actually showing signs of "playing quarterback," a condition that until the Hawaii game last year had eluded him. Symptoms inlcude completing passes to your own team, and not dancing in the pocket. Rivalry game, and all that.

Eastern Michigan is probably a win, but again, "Toledo." It will be nice to get Ron English back in the Big House.

The Indiana game is most likely a win. I mean, they're Indiana, right? And its a Big Ten opener, which is the only streak that Michigan still has going thanks to the wondrous comeback against Wisconsin.

At Michigan State will be the first road test, which under Carr would have been "L" but under Rodriguez...um...actually I have no clue. I do think that MSU will be one of the stronger teams in the B10 this year, and road games and freshman and rivalries aren't usually good. Let's call this a loss.

At Iowa might be interesting, if only because Iowa will be missing Shonn Green something terrible, but then again with no new information, I could say that Michigan will be missing that thing called "offense." I'd say this is winnable.

Deleware State has to be a win, right? Haven't we suffered enough at the hands of the 1-aa? Right?

Penn State will probably beat us.

Illinois is getting a ton of hype, and it's a road game...I'd say loss here.

Purdue we should beat. We should have beat them last year. There is no way they come into the Big House and get a W. Actually, there probably is a way, but my flight's about to board. Call it a win.

At Wisconsin is a loss.

Ohio State. Jesus. We have to beat them again at some point, right? I mean, isn't that how it works? Call it a loss.

That gets us to 6 wins, barely, because Iowa is still a toss-up. That's my gut reaction, take it or leave it. What do you guys think? Am I waaay off here? Like I said, a more detailed preview of each team will be available as the summer rolls on, so I reserve the right to change my mind about any of this.

Motor City Bowl Bound? Discuss.

0 recs | Comment 7 comments | Share

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

I agree Michigan will probably barely squeak into a bowl this year, although I would love to see them do much more.
But I think Western still has HIller at QB for the season because he had a medical redshirt a couple of years ago. But I still think Michigan wins that one, WMU will be a good MAC team, but losing Delmas will hurt their defense.

By the way, we also have the longest stretch without being shut out in a game. I think its been since 1984 or something..knock on wood…

by Lostincali on May 19, 2009 5:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Iowa and MSU

I don’t know everything about Iowa, but I view them as very similar to MSU situation wise. They lost a good RB who basically made the offense go, and aren’t particularly experienced at QB, though there is definitely potential. They return most of their other players with a few losses on defense.

I don’t envy Michigan having to make back to back road trips to Spartan Stadium and then Kinnick, since both teams should be pretty good.

Light a man a fire, he'll stay warm for a day.
Light a man afire, he'll be warm for the rest of his life.

by Seer on May 20, 2009 12:59 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

This is the natural tendency of fans......

….we were waayyy too optimistic last year, and now we’re overcompensating this year. The reality of 2008 is two major issues:

(1) if the team had a competent QB, just a competent QB, Michigan would have defeated Utah, Toledo and Northwestern.

(2) The Notre Dame game was a freaky occurrence.

(3) The Purdue game happened because the season had already been lost and Rich Rod and Shafer had their spat. That won’t happen with Robinson, he’s too disciplined.

Flip four games that should NOT have been lost, and the team is coming off a 7-5 year, and I don’t think anyone would be so negative right now.

There’s no reason to be negative. The offense has what will be a competent QB (Tate) and an exciting change of pace QB (Denard). The RBs will be strong and multifaceted, the O-line will be the strength of the team and the wideouts are being restocked with talent.

The defense has two potential All Americans this year (Graham and Warren), a three year starter at LB (Ezeh), a budding star in Mouton, two solid freshmen D-backs in Turner and Emilien, and Stevie Brown may finally be in the position he needs to be in to shine.

And Zoltan is the best punter in America , which will give us the field position advantage.

The schedule looks like this to me:

(1) Western – even with 3 YEAR RETURNING STARTER Hiller back, Michigan will win this game.
(2) Notre Dame – So what if Clausen tore up Hawaii? This is Michigan. WIN.
(3) Eastern – the first 50 point game of the Rich Rod era. WIN.
(4) Indiana – the second 50 point game of the Rich Rod era. WIN.
(5) Little Brother – they aren’t going to be as good as we think they are. Their schedule stunk last year and they lost Ringer. WIN.
(6) Iowa – might be a toss up. But I’ll be there. Night game. LOSS.
(7) Delaware State – third 50 point game of Rich Rod era. WIN.
(8) Penn State – at this point, the offense will be humming. The defense will be settled, and Penn State will still not have any wide receivers or defensive backs. WIN.
(9) Illinois – no one yet has convinced me that Ron Zook can coach. Juice can play, but if JT can cope with Benn, and the offense dominates the suspect Illinois D, why can’t we win this one? WIN.
(10) Purdue – fourth 50 point game of Rich Rod era. WIN.
(11) Wisconsin – we’re in their heads. And we’re better than them. WIN.
(12) Ohio State – I want to say win. I’ll be humble. LOSS.

I see 10-2. Call me rosy-eyed. The defense, if thin on depth, has a lot of talent and a great coach. The offense will be pretty darn good and will control the clock.

by JG2112 on May 20, 2009 5:32 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Ron Zook

When Zook was the defensive coordinator for the NO Saints, he did a pretty good job.

However, like you, I’m not convinced that he should be a head coach. He’s a pretty good Def. Coord. but that’s about it.

I am not a Pirate! I am a Pre-Salvage Engineer. I get things before they get wet.

http://aleks-home.myminicity.com/

by horp the reckless on May 20, 2009 10:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you're about right, Beauford. But...

…I do think that we’ll stumble into a lucky win somewhere along the way. Something like the Wisconsin win last year where we beat at team that we shouldn’t – and also that team turns out to be not as good as everyone thought they were.

Generally, I think pessimism is the right way to go this year. Last year, Wisconsin set us up (me included) to believing the team was better than they were.

A bowl game should be within reach, but not much more. If we miss a bowl, I’ll be furious, but I’m not expecting to be watching any parades in Pasadena or anything.

Road Games

by Reed97 on May 20, 2009 8:55 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs