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2009 Michigan Football Season Predictions! In May!

As you've probably gathered, things are a might bit quiet right now. So in an effort to bring you something worth discussing, the Maize n Brew football staff decided to take a look at the schedule and give you our own takes on how the season breaks down. I'm up today, and SCM will follow tomorrow with what will undoubtedly be his bold prediction for a 13-0 magical MNC run wherein Tate Forcier secures the first of his 5 Heismans. You'll note that I declared certain games "toss-ups." Well the reason for that is we're going to delve into those particular games next week and try to break them down a little better based on what little information we have in our possession and our own faulty reasoning skills. Feel free to tell us we're idiots. We'll live. But if you've got a different take lets hear it!

2009 Michigan Football Season Predictions

Sept. 5: Western Michigan

Stupid Comments: Normally, I'd say "Yea! A MAC team!" but I can't anymore. Dammit. Stupid Toledo. I especially can't say "Yea! A MAC team!" when the MAC team in question was 9-4 last year and returns a quarterback that accounted for 36 touchdowns last year and most of its offensive line. Howeva, WMU doesn't have as potent a running attack as last year, Stevie Brown WILL NOT BE A SAFETY, DEATH is not our quarterback (and neither is Steven Threet), and our offensive line should be much improved against a horrid WMU defense. Michigan should roll. But then again, God Hates Us. Therefore expect WMU to put up some points on a rebuilding GERG defense. Things will be better offensively, so Michigan should put up 38 points. Subtract two touchdowns for God Hates Us, and you get 24-17. Howeva (Part II), because God Hates Us, it's just as probable that my 24-17 prediction could be reversed simply because it's our opener.

Final Prediction Based on Flimsy Little No Evidence: Michigan 24, Western Michigan 17 (1-0)

Sept. 12: Notre Dame

Stupid Comments: Normally, I'd say "Yea! A MAC team!" (I keed, I keed). Notre Dame, at least on paper, is supposed to be decent this year. Piles of returning starters on both sides of the ball. An offensive line coach who is actually competent. A stable of receivers, running backs, and a decent QB. Let's face it, on experience, starts, and games played, Notre Dame is better than Michigan. They've got ten returning starters on offense for pete's sake. But this is Michigan Notre Dame. The better team never wins. When either school isn't in the middle of its worst season in history, the rebuilding team or the underdog team is a 50/50 shot to pull off the upset. I think Warren and BooBoo cover up ND's receivers. Stevie Brown WILL NOT BE A SAFETY. And I don't think we're going to spot Notre Dame 21 points on fumbles inside our 20. I think Michigan's got a good chance to win this, but that could just be blind optimism talking. Michigan's going to have trouble is at safety (shocker, I know) and at Defensive Tackle. Tenuta's defense will blitz the ever living hell out of Forcier or Robinson and create a couple of turnovers. All that said, Notre Dame is still coached by Charlie Weis. Whether he's calling the plays or not doesn't matter. It's because of him that God has forsaken Notre Dame and is currently a Boston College fan. The Wolverines play inspired and the Spread does to Notre Dame what the spread used to do to Michigan. It's a toss up, but Michigan wins. By the slimmest of margins.

Final Prediction Based on Flimsy Little No Evidence: Michigan 21, Notre Dame 20 (2-0)

Sept. 19: Eastern Michigan

Stupid Comments: Ron English will be in attendance as EMU's coach. English's defense will give up a gazillion points because we're running the spread.  On the flip side, we'll give up 21 points. That's just how we roll.

Final Prediction Based on Flimsy Little No Evidence: Michigan 40, Eastern Michigan 21 (3-0)

Sept. 26: Indiana

Stupid Comments: Beatdown. Indiana is a train wreck this year. Even worse than we were last year (zing!). Both offenses do their best to spear themselves in the first half. But the offense wakes up in the second half and Michigan piles it on in the third quarter. Michigan is looking good (relatively speaking). Everyone starts waking up the echoes, drinking the Kool-Aide, talking like idiots because we're 4-0. Woo! Why aren't we ranked? MNC bitches! Woo! Craziness!

Final Prediction Based on Flimsy Little No Evidence: Michigan 26, Indiana 6  (4-0) Woo!

Oct. 3: at Michigan State

Stupid Comments: Regardless whether Michigan is 1-3, 2-2, 3-1 or 4-0, Michigan fans expect to win this game. There's a pretty good reason for that. Michigan had its worst team, well, ever, last season and held their own against a 9-4 Spartan team.  And this season the driving forces behind that win, Javon Ringer and Brian Hoyer are gone. No one in college football meant more to his team than Ringer. He was like Ron Dayne, except good. Without Ringer to steady the ship and hork 37 carries a game, there's not enough in this offense to be successful. I'm sure quarterbacks Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol showed enough in the spring game to impress the media, but I'm skeptical. State's pass rush was mediocre last year and this year their secondary is questionable. My bet is State struggles out of the gate offensively this season and the defense isn't as good as advertised. I think they're capable of 8 wins based on their schedule, but 9 is the upside of this team.  That said, we're playing at MSU, we're really not that good, and a 3-1 or 4-0 record is going to delude fans into thinking we're good before heading into the East Lansing. The difference this year is that MSU expects to win this game and it's on their turf. For purposes of discussion, this is a toss up, but the Spartans win.

Final Prediction Based on Flimsy Little No Evidence: Michigan State 27, Michigan 13 (4-1)


Oct. 10: at Iowa

Stupid Comments: A win at Michigan State (regardless of our record) and everyone on the Maize n Blue bandwagon will be going out of their mind. We'll overlook all kinds of problems and flaws, because we won, and because of that we'll now expect to beat anyone on our schedule. Conversely, a loss at Michigan State and everyone will expect this to be the big rebound game, despite the fact it's AT Iowa. Sure you can point out that Shonn Greene and (DT) Mitch King are gone. The more important of that pairing is Greene, as he was a close second to Ringer in the "Guy Upon whom a season rests" list from last year. Without him Iowa won't be nearly as productive on the ground, even with talented sophomore Jewel Hampton in the backfield. That should give Michigan a chance to prevail. Right? No way. Stanzi is the Manzi. He loses only one of his top five pass catchers. The Offensive line looks solid. Further, most of a pretty good defense returns, you know, the defense that beat Penn State. I think Michigan gets thumped. It's an 8 p.m. start. It's at Kinnick. More importantly, the BHGP tailgate will be having their tailgate. We have no hope.

Final Prediction Based on Flimsy Little No Evidence: Iowa 38, Michigan 19 (4-2)

Oct. 17: Delaware State

Stupid Comment: I'm writing nothing about this. If we win I'm only counting it as half a game.


Final Prediction Based on Flimsy Little No Evidence: Michigan 45, Delaware State 10 (4.5-2)

Oct. 24: Penn State

Stupid Comments: This game really, really, intrigues me. Despite the fact that Penn State has QB Daryll Clark and RB Evan Royster back, this team doesn't scare me this year. Royster's coming off of off-season ankle surgery (never good), and the Lions lose their entire starting receiving corps (even worse). Certainly there's talent in the wings, but Clark reminds me a tad bit of Chad Henne (circa 2004) in the sense that a number of mistakes he threw were covered up by good receivers. All those ducks aren't going to find experienced hands this year. Additionally, it's not like Clark's going to have a lot of time to throw. The Offensive line is being totally rebuilt, and returns just two starters with one switching to center (the switch isn't a big deal unless it becomes one). Defensively, Penn State is in trouble. They lose six of their top ten tacklers to graduation, have to rebuild their defensive line, have to rebuild their secondary, and have the potential to lose leading tackler Navaro Bowman to his own stupidity after getting slapped with one year's probation for smoking the heezee and failing two drug tests last season. So to sum up, bad lines, no receivers, bad secondary, a linebacker on one leg, and another that's been stoned to the bejeezus belt most of the offseason. Penn State should be fine and go to a decent bowl, but right now everyone putting them in the top 15 reeks of "Well, we've gotta put somebody there." Hell Mark Schlabach admits as much:

The defending Big Ten champions have to replace their entire starting receiver corps and rebuild both of their lines, but they still seem to be the second-best team in what will probably again be a watered-down league.

Hey! Let's rank Auburn 5th! Woo! Sorry, Staters, this has all the makings of a "AAAAAAGGGRR!!! Godammit MICHIGAN AGAIN!?!?!?!" game for Penn State.

Clark's low on receivers and a line, and the Michigan team that controlled the first half at Happy Valley last year is back basically intact, healthy and with a quarterback that can throw the ball more than five feet and doesn't move like a cement block. Still, Penn State should win this one. Linebacker play is key against the spread and Penn State has that in spades, as I expect Lee and Bowman to play, and play well. Clark's mobility should provide enough firepower, and the Lions should take a second straight win over Michigan in yet another toss-up game.

Final Prediction Based on Flimsy Little No Evidence: Penn State 24, Michigan 17 (4.5-3)

Oct. 31: at Illinois

Stupid Comments: Last season Juice Williams set an all purpose yardage record at the Big House as the Illini pounded a Michigan team that was in the process of coming apart at the seams. In spite of that inspired beatdown, the Illini proceeded to stumble to a 5-7 season losing five of their last seven games. Seriously, WTF? This year isn't going to get any easier for the Illini as they're looking at an all offense and no defense kind of year. Williams returns for his a senior season, and if he's ever going to build upon his 2007 Ohio State game it'd better be early into the 2009 campaign. He will have help. Arrelious Benn and score of talented pass-catchers on the wings. Senior Daniel Dufrene and Jason Ford provide plenty of pop out of the backfield to keep defenses from keying on Benn's running. But on defense the Illini are inexperienced, thin at key positions, and weak in the secondary. I think this has the possibility to be the most entertaining game of the year in the Big Ten. Not because it's going to be great football, but because I don't think either defense is going to be able to stop the opposing offense. Williams and Forcier/Robinson run wild. Long TD runs, passes. He who scores last wins. Another toss-up, but for giggles I'm picking Michigan to return the favor from last year.

 Final Prediction Based on Flimsy Little No Evidence: Michigan 37, Illinois 33 (5.5-3)

Nov. 7: Purdue

Stupid Comments:  Boned. Purdue is road kill by this point. Diabeetus or no Diabeetus. Michigan plays down to Purdue but wins anyway.

Final Prediction Based on Flimsy Little No Evidence: Michigan 28, Purdue 10 (6.5-3)

Nov. 14: at Wisconsin

Stupid Comments: As a coach with a defensive background, Bielema finds himself in an awkward position as his best assets are on offense. Sadly, that's not much of a consolation when you still don't have a starting quarterback. Wisconsin's storied history of noodle armed white guys at quarterback who like to roll into sacks should be able to pen another chapter this season regardless of whether Dustin Sherer and Curt Phillips is under center. But, if either of these guys shows an promise, Wisconsin should be in business on offense. There are some serious weapons on the wings in Nick Toon and Garrett Graham. Further, John Clay is a horse at tailback that I'm legitimately afraid of. There is the potential for a very good offense out there, but Bielema's gotta show he can coach offensive football. Jury's still out of that. On the defensive side the Badgers are a mess. Linebacker play was abysmal last year and is unlikely to improve. The secondary is rebuilding. The DLine is made of cheese curds. Michigan should be able to hang with the Badgers and maybe sneak a victory here, but I don't see it happening. Like Kinnick, Madison is an damn near impossible place to play. The students are right on top of you. It's loud. And if Michigan's played as well as I'm anticipating, they're looking ahead at Ohio State. Michigan has the horses to win, so I'll call it a toss-up, but in the end I think the Badgers take it to the Wolverines in Mad Town.

Final Prediction Based on Flimsy Little No Evidence: Wisconsin 27, Michigan 17 (6.5-4)

Nov. 21: Ohio State


Stupid Comments:
Blah, blah, blah. OSU lost players X, Y, and Z. Terrelle Pryor's a head case. Blah, blah, blah. Sorry folks, OSU's better than Michigan right now. Pryor is the most dynamic quarterback in the Big Ten at this time, the offensive line will be very good, they replace Wells with two other former five star backs, and Tressel's still the coach. Unlike the rest of the Big Ten, when Ohio State's defense graduates half its best players, it doesn't fall off. Usually it gets better. Barring an injury to Pryor, I don't see Michigan winning this game right now. Unless Ohio State's defense just collapses, the lines and secondary are good enough to cover for any gaps the reloading linebacker corps has to deal with. Tate/Denard play well, Michigan plays well in this game, but comes up short.


Final Prediction Based on Flimsy Little No Evidence: Ohio State 34, Michigan 26 (6.5-5)

Projected Regular Season finish: 6.5-5 overall, 4-4 Big Ten and a Bowl Bid.

Poll
How's Michigan going to fair this year?
13-0! MNC Baby!
29 votes
12-1! Ohhhh! So close! Rose Bowl!
4 votes
11-2! New Years day Bowl, Jubulence!
9 votes
10-3! Ditto!
32 votes
9-4! Great season, better than we should've been!
100 votes
8-5! Great season, better than we should've been!
199 votes
7-6. Motor City Bowl. Right where we ought to be.
200 votes
6-7. Ditto. But I would've liked to have won it.
38 votes
6-6. We're staying home out of pride.
49 votes
5-7. Crap. We should've made a bowl. Next year looks good though.
73 votes
4-8. WTF? One game better! Gaaaah!
37 votes
3-9. Where's the tallest building in town?
38 votes

808 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 4 comments |

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2009 Predictions

Great summary! And I agree with most of what you guys have put together here.
The only thing I would add is that we should probably consider UM’s opponents and their own mindset heading into games with Michigan this year. Sometimes I think UM opponents just don’t respect Michigan any more, which could be advantageous in some situations to Michigan. Every season has ups and downs as it progresses, and UM’s opponents are affected by this also.

NOTRE STAIN
You mention that Notre Dame is just a better team than Michigan on paper. I agree with this 100%. But prior to playing Michigan, Notre Dame faces what I consider a pretty tough Nevada football team that has all the skills to catch the Irish taking a Guinness-induced nap. Under Weis Notre Dame has played quite poorly in season openers: 2006 vs. Ga Tech W14-10, 2007 vs GaTech L 3-33, 2008 vs SDSt W 21-13. This might be Chris Ault’s finest Nevada team with a talented defense plus 1000 yrd rushers in QB Coline Kaepernick and TB Vai Taua. Luke Lippincott is also back. I’m just saying a loss or just another poor showing vs. Nevada could be a strike against the Irish, or a wake-up call for the UM game in Ann Arbor a week later. I like Michigan’s chances to not only upset Notre Dame in this one, but win the game more decisively than predicted.

MICHIGAN STATE
Spartans have 13 starters back from 2008, but must replace 90% of their offensive production with graduating QB and TB. Cunningham and White are the best returning receivers. Spartans should beat Michigan this year in Spartan Stadium, but prior MSU games are tough ones vs. CMU, at ND and then at Wiscy. If MSU is unbeaten entering UM game, then they may steamroll the Wolverines as you predict. But if the Spartans lose some of their preceding games, then Sparty’s confidence may not be the same, in which case I like UM’s chances more and more to spoil Sparty’s return home.

IOWA
Hawkeyes have 15 team starters back of 22. They’ll have one of the best offenses in the Big Ten as well. Stanzi is the best Iowa passing QB since Chuck Long, but with better wideouts. Defensively the biggest loss is leading tackler Matt Kroul. Looking at the roster, yes, the OL is experienced, but Greene made them look outstanding last year. There’s only Hampton and O’Meara now and they won’t do the OL the same favor. After those two, Iowa has no one to run the ball effectively. Iowa may win this game vs. Michigan, but it will be much tougher than advertised. Hawkeyes could win the Big Ten this year if it wasn’t for that gauntlet of a road schedule: at Penn State, at Wisconsin, at Michigan State and at Ohio State. Hawkeyes opponent prior to UM game? Arkansas State! Uh-oh!

So while I think UM has real shots at Notre Dame (at home) and MSU (away), the game I don’t like at all is the game at Illinois.

ILLINOIS
The Illini have everyone back that produced last year: QB Williams, TB Dufrene, a cast of outstanding receivers, and their leading tackler LB Martez Wilson. Game is in Champaign and likely to be played during the evening hours. Illinois normally finds ways to stink up the joint vs. teams they should beat on paper. The one thing that gives UM a shot is Illinois, with all their offensive talent and spread offense, is that the Illini had a hell of a time scoring when it mattered most last fall. Illini opponents prior to Michigan? At Indiana and at Purdue. Illinois will be on a 2 game win streak, which could be good or bad for UM.

Positives for UM in 2009:

1. deeper, more experienced offensive line
2. deep stable of running backs
3. deep roster of talented, experienced receivers and slots
4. a mobile QB who can throw accurately
5. a 27% 3rd down conversion rate that is unlikely to be repeated. Ever.

Biggest Strikes Against UM in 2009

1. Only 5 starters on defense
2. Poor defensive depth
3. 4th Defensive Coordinator in 5 years
4. Schedule is again one of the Big Ten’s toughest in total.

Go Blue!

by markusr2007 on May 20, 2009 12:59 PM CDT reply actions  

agree with most of that...

…just can’t shake the feeling that somehow, someway, Michigan will find a way to blow one of the first 4 games. If it’s against Notre Dame, so be it, but….I fear a Western Michigan upset, or something crazy, now that the MAC dam has burst….

So here’s a question, if Michigan goes 6-6 or 7-5, are you happy to be going to, say, the Poulon Weed Eater Blue Turf Emerald Bowl?

Gonna have to find me a friendly scalper for that Wisconsin game, looking forward to strapping on the maize and blue and wading into the drunken students again…

by ahtrap on May 20, 2009 4:04 PM CDT reply actions  

Early season dread...

Yeah, you have to anticipate an early season stumble, and either WMU or ND could bite us. But between the two, ND is the more potent team. In some strange way maybe the Toledo game can be a reminder to these kids that nothing is guaranteed, and they’d better bring their best every game.

We’ll see. I think this is going to be a very screwy, exciting year. Get your pacemakers ready.

BTW, Markus – Wow. Great stuff.

Maize n Brew
Because Football is Better with Beer

by Maize n Brew Dave on May 20, 2009 4:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

The distribution of responses is interesting to say the least.

10-3 or 9-4 folks… I don’t get it. But ok.

I’ll throw it out there that I’m guessing 4-8 because I’m a pessimist. Even my most optimistic whim can’t justify 8 wins without seeing something on the field first.

by formerlyanonymous on May 20, 2009 5:05 PM CDT reply actions  

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