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Winnable Is a Stupid Way to Say "I Don't Know"


I eat my fingers.  I'm not really sure how it happened, or why it started, but somehow I've gone way beyond biting my nails to pretty much consuming the entire ends of each of my digits.  It's repulsive, and probably fairly unhygienic.  I use it as my reason why I never get sick.  I'm constantly putting all this disgusting crap into my system, so I've got antibodies for shit like potted plant dirt, never mind Swine Flu.  I got immunity from Swine Flu like 3 years ago after a particular nerve wrecking trip to the hog processing plant.  Mrs. Bixel hates it, with good reason I may add, so I'm trying to quit.  Let me tell you something about biting your fingers: that shit don't quit.  I quit a pack-a-day smoking habit easier than I'm kicking this thing.  About a week ago, upon returning to the United States and thus real life, I thought I had this thing kicked.  My nails were long and beautiful.  They clicked off the keyboard when I typed.

God I wish I could say that it were something different, something more meaningful that had me back to biting my fingers.  Like Cancer, or something.  I think Cancer would be nail-bite inducing enough to where people would see me at my desk gnawing my fingers and say "that's ok, it's cancer..." and the folks they were with would be all like "awww" instead of repulsed and determined not to shake my hand.  Instead, I took a look at Michigan's 2009 schedule.  That was all it took.  Now my fingers are essentially stumps again.  Thanks a lot, Michigan Football.

Star-divide

 

What I'm most interested in when I look at our 2009 schedule is this concept of  "winnable games."  I hear it all the time on message boards mostly, and I'm left wondering what, exactly, is meant by "winnable."  There could be several definitions:

  • Coach:  "Every game is winnable if you execute our plan you will not fail"
  • Fan 1:  "We're Michigan, we should be in position to win each game on talent alone
  • Fan 2:  "I study the rosters, the coach's history and tendencies, know a little about the depth chart situation, and deem that Michigan will have a shot in games XYZ"

The answer as to which is correct, I believe, lies somewhere in the middle.  In theory, the coach is correct.  Every game is winnable, which is why you have USA over Spain, or the inevitable mid-level PAC-10 team over USC (pick a year).  But for us here in fanhood land, this very clearly isn't the case.  No Purdue fan this year is going to look at the schedule and say "yep, 13-0, here we come!"  And, as we adjust to life under 3-9, neither is any Michigan fan.  Originally, I had labeled "fan 1" above as "homer fan" unti

l I realized that really that's not too far of an assumption to make.  Michigan, as a football playing school, should be in position to win every game on talent alone.  We have the resources, the history, and the staff to get top-tier recruits.  We should be in that position, but god knows (again, 3-9) we're definitely not.  Fan 2 was obviously what I wanted to be the correct definition, but even then, I think that's short changing the whole randomness/USA vs. Spain aspect of college football. 

I think the problem lies in the original phrase.  Predicting the college football season is the type of activity that will lead you to be chewing the ends of your fingers until they bleed.  If you're going to make predictions, just make the stupid prediction, don't hedge on what is "winnable."  Michigan vs. Colts is "winnable."  Michigan vs. Spacemen from the Moon is "winnable."  If you're going to do something as stupid as try to predict the outcomes of football games, at least be a man about it, because saying "winnable" is paramount to saying "maybe."  It's like you count Ohio State as a loss because it's unwinnable, but shrug your shoulders at the rest of it.  I'll be stupid enough to make predictions this year, and you'd damn well better believe I'll be predicting wins and losses.  And eating my fingers.  Make your predictions below, and I'll get back to you tomorrow:

Michigan Wolverines schedule

Date Opponent
Sep. 5 Western Michigan 3:30pm  
Sep. 12  Notre Dame 3:30pm  
Sep. 19  Eastern Michigan 12:00pm  
Sep. 26  Indiana 12:00pm  
Oct. 3 at Michigan State TBA  
Oct. 10 at Iowa 8:00pm  
Oct. 17 Delaware St. TBA  
Oct. 24 Penn State TBA  
Oct. 31 at Illinois 3:30pm  
Nov. 7 Purdue TBA  
Nov. 14 at Wisconsin TBA  
Nov. 21 Ohio State TBA

0 recs  |  Comment 4 comments |

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As a fan, I never

approach any given game with the “we’re going to lose” superstition. I fully believe the team can win. So I’m with the coach on game day, no question.

I avoid Fan 1’s attitude, mostly because I think it’s a poor way to approach anything in life. It’s bullshit anyway, because recruiting is largely a crap-shoot, there being far too much disparity between (and within) competition levels in high school to consistently evaluate performance on a national basis. The premier programs are better because they can recruit speed, size, and a few other rarer tangibles like throwing ability, but it’s still all about the coaches teaching making good decisions with regard to performance (i.e., learning) and a great university than can help these kids to mature and grow in ways that lesser schools just can’t.

In the off-season, and in assessing the season as it unfolds (i.e., on the way home from the game), I’m Fan 2. This season has three sets of back-to-back games that look like they’ll take a toll: MSU/Iowa; PSU/Illinois; Wisconsin/OSU. It’s scary because it’s not at all inconceivable that this team could start 6-1 but still finish at 7-5. The ND game is the litmus test — win and I start hoping for 8-4 while secretly dreaming of 9-3. Lose and, well, I stop thinking about anything but the next game.

PS: Since you’ve got Editor status, I’ll be a weenie and point out that the common phrase is nerve- “racking” or “wracking” not “wrecking.” And in your other post today, it’s “chock full” not “chalk full.”

by Rasmus on Jul 7, 2009 8:12 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Let's see what we have here ...

Hey … very new here but I would like to give this one a shot. I would want to consider myself like Fan #2 but lacking the entire pile of information out there really makes my mathematical analysis of the outcomes pretty useless and based more on planet configurations than any sort of solid statistics.

Sep. 5 Western Michigan – W – we got this. I just have to believe.
Sep. 12 Notre Dame – W – This game is warming back up to the clashes of old but we are about a step ahead.
Sep. 19 Eastern Michigan – W – rolling on two wins … feeling pretty good.
Sep. 26 Indiana – W – Big Ten opener … win big at home for four in a row.
Oct. 3 at Michigan State – L – 1st road game in hostile territory trips up young team
Oct. 10 at Iowa – L – Iowa is licking thier chops about this one … heads up!
Oct. 17 Delaware St. – W – Back home and back to our winning ways
Oct. 24 Penn State – W – PSU struggles this year and 3/4 of the way through a tough year, drops one on the road.
Oct. 31 at Illinois – W – Looking for our first road win … Illinois gets caught looking ahead.
Nov. 7 Purdue – W – Just sit back and watch the trainwreck that will be Purdue football under a new coach.
Nov. 14 at Wisconsin – L – The first Big Game late in the season proves too much for young team.
Nov. 21 Ohio State – L – Get caught kicking ourselves in the ass. This one will be competitive but not too close.

8-4 … hello Outback Bowl. RichRod praised for bringing Michigan football back. Oh and just for the kicks … lets say UM meets Spurrier and his South Carolina Gamecoks in the Outback Bowl. UM-35 SC-14 W.

by IowaLion on Jul 7, 2009 9:32 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Hey IowaLion

Good to have you aboard. I don’t think it’s inconceivable we start 4-0, which is exciting…

Like an old man trying to send back soup at a deli.

by Beauford on Jul 7, 2009 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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