How Do You Combine Objective Analysis with "Go Blue!"?
by SCM on Jul 9, 2009 12:00 PM CDT
in Michigan Football
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PrintThis vaguely has to do with predictions, expectations, objectivity and fanhood... and I guess semantics... and if it doesn't really, then just suffer my rant for a minute or two. I apologize in advance for the James Joyce stream of consciousness level of organization here... but anyways, onward.
I am not an analyst, I am a fan, a fan who has biases, quirks, beliefs, and expectations. When it comes to fan expectations, there are certainly all kinds. Beauford touched on an element of this a few days ago when talking about things like "winnable" games. I agree with him that using "winnable" in the context of a prediction is a big ol' hedge, but the context is important to keep in mind. It's also a buffer that many rational fans fall back on to not appear to be a "homer" or "pessimist". To me, when I hear someone describing a game as "winnable" there's an element of balance at play: there's the optimistic side that truly believes that "hey, we can win this thing" and there's the objective side that realizes "hey, this one's going to be tough". It's when one of these sides overrides the other that you start to see issues arise. Again context, context, context...
That brings me to the soapbox portion... it seems that there is an increasing number of people within the Michigan fanbase that seem determined to stamp out optimism at any turn, which yes, I get that the "we're MICHIGAN, we MUST go _____" is blindingly idiotic and horrifyingly annoying, but so too is pessimism guised as being "enlightened objectivity". I will offer a quick example... an ongoing theme this offseason has been to look at our defensive secondary as being in dire straits... hardly any depth of any kind... and yet, our two starting corners are actually, well, pretty good. I fully understand that if one goes down, look out, but what's to say both remain healthy? What then? Is it wrong of me to suggest that perhaps our corner play will be better than indicated by the depth chart should we stay healthy? Both points are pretty valid, yet one has been getting major play this offseason, while the other viewpoint... not so much. Listen, I understand the push-back from segments of the fan-base that can't stand "homer" fans... but there's a fine line between striving for objectivity and losing part of what makes being a fan such a hell of a roller coaster ride. Part of it is that there are a lot of us that get horrifyingly angry at people who say things like "Rodriguez is on the hot seat" one year into his tenure... so perhaps the defense mechanism in play is to attack that mindset by trying to temper expectations a bit, thinking that then some of the undeserved heat and negative attention on a coach that many (including yours truly) believe to be the real deal will go away. I get that, and I can understand where it's coming from, but I think in an effort to combat the extreme end of the spectrum, there's a culture now that any approach other than "guarded" is that of a foolish kool-aid drinker. I don't agree with that sort of thinking, I think it's perfectly fine to be excited. There's a difference between excitement and "BCS GAME THIS YEAR OMG!1!".
I'm excited for this season because we're at a stage where there's a lot that's still simply unknown, there's a lot that can be said from any perspective on nearly any game, and there's an opportunity to see this team grow into something in front of our eyes. For every position where we're thin, there's 74 fumbled punts that won't happen this year (they won't, they won't, they won't). For every road game that looks like it will be an impossible challenge, there's that first half performance in State College last year. To give equal time, on the other side of the coin, for all of the returning starters on offense we talk about, there's the complete lack of depth in the secondary and d-line. And of course, for every moment spent talking about the offensive approach there's that nagging part that says "our starter at QB, for the second year in a row, has never taken a collegiate snap".
I'm not excited for this season because we have so many ___ star players from the past four years or because someone else decided to go elsewhere. Rather, I'm excited for the season because I can't wait to see what kind of progress we've made in year two, I'm excited because I think we're starting to build a team that has the "swagger" that we've been lacking more often than not over the past decade, I'm excited because... hey, this Tate kid looks good. I am certain that there will be ups and downs, there always are, but to me, that's part of what makes it so great. It's FUN to be emotionally involved with the team, it's FUN to get excited and have some enjoyment leading up to the year, it's FUN to believe that there's some pieces in place here to do some things. It's fun to think of a game as "winnable".
You simply can't always predict what will happen... one need not look any further back than the years of 2006 and 2007 to know that far too much goes into a football season to be able to stand here in July and point to much with any kind of certainty... but after a year of horrifying outcomes, worse breaks, and the longest offseason since the "one team gets to go to a bowl rabble rabble rabble" rule, I'm ok with trying to have the "glass-half-full" approach to trying to get a grip on the unpredictable.
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Yeah yeah yeah
I still say Tate gets concussed and we win 4 games.
But, I could be wrong.
On negativity
I think there are two kinds — one is a sort of Power-of-Negative-Thinking superstition, that is, fans who aren’t comfortable being optimistic. I’ve got no problem with that — it’s like saying “He’s going to strike out” when you’re hoping for a home run.
But there is another type of negativity around these days — people who genuinely want Rodriguez to fail. I don’t know if it’s nostalgia for the past, or for what might have been with Les Miles, but it’s just wrong. There are plenty of things to improve about the coaching last season, that’s for sure. But these people seem to cross the line from criticism to hoping for failure. I don’t get it.
I think...
I think a good portion of the “genuinely wanted RR to fail” mindset just has more to do with wanting to be right than anything else. Not the best metric to use, I understand, but Ohio State and Michigan State fans remain convinced that Rich Rod’s “gimmick” offense will fail in the Big Ten and that his hiring will set UM back even further into the morass that Notre Dame has been in over most of the past decade. I don’t believe this, but so far there is little evidence other than historical evidence that would suggest they’re wrong. The opinion remains valid.
I think there is a very small portion of Wolverine fans – generally older generation and generally not reading blogs – who feel the same way; that somehow the Bo lineage was broken with Rodriguez. My guess is that when we start shredding 60 yard TD runs, all will be forgiven, but Bo, Gary, Carr were all three-yards-cloud-of-dust type coaches. They competed with Woody, Cooper, and Tressel, all three professors of the aforementioned strategy. That was how it was, and Rodriguez is changing that. They want him to fail because they’ve already professed that the hire was a “bad hire” and that he would fail. They just want to be right.
Currently, the “believers” – a stupid internet meme for somebody willing to give the coach more than 1 season – have no ammunition against such thoughts. Rodriguez’s team was BAD his first year. That doesn’t mean he can’t get better, but currently, them’s the breaks. The believers are just going to have to sit tight and wait for what we’re all pretty sure is coming; a team capable of shutting up those who are hoping for failure.
Like an old man trying to send back soup at a deli.
2006 and 2007 seasons
One thing a lot of the outsiders don’t get is just how intense the roller-coaster was from the death of Bo on the eve of the 1 vs. 2 Ohio State loss, to the Rose Bowl second-half collapse against Southern Cal and then the Appalachian State loss and Oregon blowout. Then crushing ND and winning 8 straight only to lose to Wisconsin and the Buckeyes. Then Carr retires and outclasses Florida, the defending champion who beat Ohio State the year before.
That has to be one of the freakier rides in the history of the game. I cut Rodriguez a lot of slack following those two years. But I guess, as you say, there are a few who don’t feel that way — they think that, not only has an era come to an end, but some sort of core value of Michigan football has been lost.
To them I’d say the option-spread that Coach Rod runs is, in many ways, the new “three-yards-and-cloud-of-dust” philosophy. This is a running offense — what is missing is drop-back passing game. The option to run stays alive much longer, but to work well, the option to throw has to be real. The latter is what was missing last year.
A Buckeye is still a hairless nut, and always will be.
Well....
Am not a RR hater…but am trying to be realistic. I think the spring game puffed up a lot of fans due to Tate’s performance—but I wasn’t sold. You can’t judge a player when he can’t be hit by anyone. I know he’s the second coming and all, but no one knows if he can survive a D1 hit. Probably can. maybe can. Hope he can. But if he gets broke in two, I won’t be surprized. Yeah, and Denard is all that and a bag of chips, but he has a lot to learn and not a lot of time to learn it—and we have to see if he can sustain a hit, as well.
You can judge...
How he throws the football, and that was a definitive and authoritative two thumbs up, he made throws we simply didn’t have available to us last year.
Whether or not he can survive a D1 hit? This is football right? I think the kid’s played the game, particularly in this system, enough to know how to get hit.
GO BLUE! http://www.maizenbrew.com/
Pessimists like football too
Pessimists are more often pleasantly surprised than those with higher expectations. A pessimistic person rarely places their faith in things that are out of their control, or unproven. From the pessimist’s view, the Wolverines are a double whammy for the next few years.
When you step back and take a look at posts from various forums you see the homers (10+ wins), the pessimists (5 wins), and the haters (3 wins). Right down the middle seems about right… I’ll set my line at 7 and adjust my attitude from there.
Thanks for the post!
"...the team, the team, the team..."
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