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Blogpoll Preseason

This year the blogpoll voting has been handed to yours truly here at Maize n' Brew.  While I am the one who will hit the final submit button, I will post a prelim poll up here before the final one is due so that you, oh faithful reader, can give vicious attacks on my credibility input.  This should be an interactive type exercise, so please, use the comments section.  We'll discuss, then I'll post the final ballot for each week.

I suppose, however, if we're to come to any kind of consensus, we should define how, exactly, I'll be ranking these teams.  A few things:

1)  My poll is meant to be a snapshot of which team is the BEST TEAM in the country at that specific point of time in the season.

This disqualifies the "team A beat team B, so team A must be ranked higher" argument, but obviously given a choice in similar rankings, this will hold true.  To take an example from last season: USC lost to Oregon State but that doesn't mean that I believed OSU was a better team given what I'd seen from them vs. what I'd seen from USC.  USC, week in and week out, is a better football team, and thus, they would still be ranked higher than Oregon State.

2)  I am not a resume zealot. 

Last year, East Carolina came out and beat Virginia Tech (then #17) and then smoked West Virginia (then #8).  Suddenly, the resume of East Carolina - in the patsy-filled college preseason scheduling world we live in - was the strongest of anyone's in the country.  As a result, the resume zealots had to vote them close to #1, if not #1.  Did anyone actually believe that East Carolina was going to win it all?  Again, the goal of my poll is to look at who the best team in the country is at a specific point in time.  Just because East Carolina upset a few ranked opponents doesn't mean they're more impressive than, say, a Florida team who is beating Citadel (or whoever) by 70 points.  Says more about VT and WVU than ECU, if you ask me.

3)  My poll will do its best to ignore the USC/SEC media-inflation

Note: this is not meant to be a shot at any of those teams.  You'll notice that I've ranked SEC teams very highly in my poll.  However, I will try to ignore the "even record, even OOC SOS, give the nod to the SEC team" type stuff.  Sometimes, it's warranted, and I'll do my best to be transparent about this type of situation.  If you want to call me a homer or anti-SEC, go for it.  I'll try to explain.

4)  "Mid Majors" are not title contenders...except when they are!

As a mid-major, you have to prove above and beyond the scope of winning your conference that you belong with the big boys.  This means a mediocre team from a BCS conference will probably be ranked higher than an awesome MAC team, even if that MAC team is undefeated.  Boise State and Utah have earned their way out of this quagmire, but even that only takes them so far.

5)  I am human

If my prelim poll goes up and neglects to mention, say, Texas when Texas was #2 in my previous poll, SAY SOMETHING.  I have fat fingers.  Sometimes they mis-key things.

On with the shew

RankTeam
1 Florida
2 Texas
3 Alabama
4 Southern Cal
5 Oklahoma
6 Ohio State
7 Penn State
8 Virginia Tech
9 LSU
10 Mississippi
11 California
12 Oklahoma State
13 Georgia Tech
14 Georgia
15 Oregon
16 Iowa
17 Boise State
18 Utah
19 TCU
20 Michigan State
21 Miami (Florida)
22 UCLA
23 Notre Dame
24 North Carolina
25 Nebraska

 

1) Florida

There is virtually no one in existence who isn't going to vote Florida #1, and if they aren't it's out of sheer ornerytude rather than actual fact.  Can a case be made for Texas?  Sure.  But Texas doesn't return EVERY SINGLE DEFENSIVE STARTER from last year, the Heisman's (and God's) favorite quarterback, and a schedule that only produces one butterfly inducing road trip to LSU.

2) Texas

If Tebow is 1a, Colt McCoy is 1b.  They return 9 starters on offense, and 7 on defense from a team that went 11-1 only to miss the BXII title game because of a flukey tie-break system. 

3) Alabama

The defense, which was 3rd in the nation last year in yards allowed, returns 9 of 11 starters, including Terrance Cody, who is an absolute terror at nose-tackle.  The question marks surround the offense, but they've got the best receiver in the game (Julio Jones).  The defense should be able to allow the offense some breathing room early while they get their feet under them.  They're toughest game is a road test in October against Mississippi.  A fairly favorable schedule makes Bama the favorites in the SEC West.

4) USC

I would have put them higher, but injuries to Aaron Corp and the stellar play of freshman Matt Barkley have put a question mark on the QB position for the first time...what?  This decade?  I don't expect that to hold them back, especially with Taylor Mays - who I believe to be the best player in NCAA football this year - back.

5) Oklahoma

Offensive line questions are why Oklahoma is dropped a little in my poll compared to the coaches poll.  Sam Bradford is awesome, but Florida proved that he, just like any other quarterback at any other level, becomes mortal if enough pressure is supplied.  Florida did that last year before they lost 4 of their 5 starting O linemen.  The showdown with Texas...

6) Ohio State

Ohio State is, if nothing else, deep (except, oddly, at QB) and talented.  The defense should be reloaded, and the offense will feature Pryor, who will probably have matured and probably be even more awesome than he was last year.  Because that's how it goes.  On paper, which is all we have to go on at this point, I can't move Ohio State lower than this.  However, they are one Pryor knee away from being 2008 Michigan-esque at the QB position. 

The rest of the Poll After the Jump....

Star-divide

7) Penn State

This is probably a bit high for Penn State, who must rebuild their entire offensive line and receiving corp.  However, Clark and Royster return, along with Maybin at DE Latham and Crawford as monster DT's.  As of right now, this slot is occupied by Penn State because I believe they are better than Virginia Tech, who is an ACC team.

8) Virginia tech

Oh, hi there.  I see you're from the ACC.  I am, therefore, loath to put you in the top ten.  Tyrod Taylor could be the next Vick on the football field though, and he has the nickname of T-Mobile.  That  alone gets you into the top ten.  Barely.  Also, per our contract with Frank Beamer:  SPECIAL TEAMS!!!!!

9) LSU

LSU should be much better this year given the experience returning on the offensive line, and in the backfield.  Jerrett Lee was really good at throwing to the other team last year, and finds himself on the bench.  Players and coaches alike are saying that they're going to look to establish the ground game early and often, which should take the pressure off new QB Jordan Jefferson.  A home tilt against Florida and an away game to Alabama will determine the pecking order of SEC teams here.

10) Mississippi

F392286_medium

Jevan Snead via vmedia.rivals.com




This is a risky selection.  However, they beat the tar out of Texas Tech in the bowl game last year (not to mention Florida), they have a very good QB in Jevan Snead, and Houston Nutt seems to have the pieces together for a top-ten finish.  I do not think they will be in contention for an SEC title, but damn, who else should go here?  I'm open to suggestions.

The Rest

I probably have Iowa a bit high, but in looking at their returning strength, I see them as a very viable Big Ten contender.  I might have Georgia Tech low, which would be a real divergence from the coaches poll.  They return a ton of starters though, and have one of those offenses that just beats the hell out of you while scoring 24 points.  You'll see a bunch of mid-majors who probably deserve to be ranked, but aren't ranked higher because they're mid-majors (see point 4 above).  Michigan State is probably ranked too high (as in, ranked at all) given their question marks, but I like their receiving corp and I like their defense.  Finally, can this be the year that Nebraska makes some noise out of the BXII North?  Probably not. 

Next Week

Well, next "week" we'll have games to go on.  And if Michigan beats Western, they're going to be ranked #10 and will probably go to the Rose Bowl.

0 recs  |  Comment 9 comments |

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Comments

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As a Penn State fan...

I feel that it is my duty to point out that Aaron Maybin is currently holding out for a spot on the Buffalo Bills’ roster, and not eligible to play for PSU this fall.

"I thought the kid we were using had the potential to be a good quarterback, and I blew that one." - Joseph V. Paterno

by leeharvey418 on Aug 20, 2009 9:59 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

ah-ha!

Right. I meant Crawford and Latham – the huge DT’s – and just put in the lineman that I remembered last.

See, this is the kind of interaction we’re lookin’ for!

Fixed in the post.

www.maizenbrew.com
Get it?

by Beauford on Aug 20, 2009 10:21 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Man I hate to do this to you again...

but Kevion Latham and Jack (The Ripper) Crawford are our ends. Jared Odrick and Ollie Ogbu are our big returning tackles.

You want interaction? Feel free to come over to BSD and stir the pot. Just don’t be surprised when this place gets overrun with Penn Staters.

"I thought the kid we were using had the potential to be a good quarterback, and I blew that one." - Joseph V. Paterno

by leeharvey418 on Aug 21, 2009 6:44 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

g---d it

Just read this: http://www.maizenbrew.com/2009/7/21/955882/penn-schtate-preview

Defensively, Penn State does return the two tackles, Jarek Odrick – a 6’5" 300+lbs. space eater – and Ollie Ogbu, a slightly shorter but still 300 lbs. monster. Sophomores Jack Crawford and Kevion Latham make up the bookends. Both were middling 3-stars with ok-not-great offers. Odrick and Ogbu – an awesome name pairing aesthetically – are going to have to be brick-wall types to make up for general lack of experience on the ends. My bet is that they will be eating double teams, and probably allowing Latham and Crawford to mess things up in the backfield occasionally. However, there will be plenty of times when Latham and Crawford are eatan alive. Such is life with inexperienced defensive ends.

I swear I know what I’m talking about…except when I don’t…

www.maizenbrew.com
Get it?

by Beauford on Aug 21, 2009 7:58 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

UCLA

Wow, another person with UCLA in the poll.

You know, the Over/Under in Vegas for regular season wins is 6.5. You must like that over if they are in your poll.

Beauford, I will give you the same offer I gave MGoTim. Give me a call, we’ll talk.

I might just own the Internet by the time the season is over.

Otherwise, good looking poll.

by jamiemac on Aug 21, 2009 7:42 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

UCLA

My rationale:

1) 9 returning starters on offense – one of whom will be a backup, leading me to…
2) No more Craft, bring in Prince – the guy who led the comeback against Tennessee
3) 7 returning starters on defense that was middle of the pack last year
4) Pac-10 as a whole isn’t as strong as you think

I think a 7 win regular season is not out of the question, making them a 20-25 type ranked team at the end of the season.

Add into that the fact that I don’t like Florida State this year, am (maybe a bit too) harsh on non-BCS teams (BYU in this case), think Illinois is vastly overrated, and Kansas isn’t going anywhere in the bxii, and you get UCLA. In the top 25.

We’ll know a loooot more about these 15-25 teams when we see real-life games.

www.maizenbrew.com
Get it?

by Beauford on Aug 21, 2009 9:15 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Wolverines' returning starters

Kind of interesting to apply the returning-starters criteria for preseason assessments to U-M, with 10 of 11 returning on offense. The only starter not returning is Threet.

O line: 5 of 5.
O back: 2 of 3.
O wide: 4 of 4. Koger started more games than Massey last year, so let’s count him at whatever we’re calling that position now. With regard to the rest of the receivers, like the offensive line, everyone is back. Unlike the line, however, not all of last year’s starters are going to do so this year. Still, there is depth.

D line: 1 of 4.
D lineback: 3 of 3. [Counting Brown.]
D back: 1 of 4.

So, following the points of your UCLA rationale, I get:

1) 10 returning starters on offense — at least one of whom will be a backup (Stonum) …
2) No more Threet, bring in true freshman
3) 5 returning starters on a defense that was toward the back of the pack last year
4) Big Ten as a whole is stronger than you think [?]

Obviously, relatively big problems at points 2 and 3, but with some good fortune (Forcier or Robinson turns out to be ready; no injuries to key defensive players), things might not be so bad. Seven wins will be tough due largely to point 4 and the fact U-M plays all of the Big Ten’s good teams, but there is reason for cautious optimism.

by Rasmus on Aug 22, 2009 10:17 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

As long as you’re not claiming Michigan should be mentioned in the same breath as preseason top-25. While underachieving last year, UCLA was not the abomination that Michigan was.

However, the amount of returning starters is a good reason for optimism, especially when you think about this: last year every single person was brand new in a brand new system. The leap I (and most other optimists) expect them to make will be far greater than a 3-9 team who just went 3-9 running the same system they’ve always run. In that case, you’re just returning poorly talented players. In our case (again – optimist point of view. Not fact) we’re hopefully returning talented players who couldn’t grasp the new system quickly enough. With another year under their belt, that talent should be allowed to work a little more freely. More wins? Hopefully.

Of course, it could go the opposite direction too…

www.maizenbrew.com
Get it?

by Beauford on Aug 22, 2009 1:11 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Oh, absolutely

UCLA is a bold pick, but a preseason list without one is pretty boring. Picking Michigan would not be the same — like you say, unlike UCLA, there is nothing to build on from last season.

Sometimes I think the question to ask about this coming season has nothing to do with the offense: “Six or seven starters and the coach are gone on an unreliable defense — will that be a good thing or a bad thing?”

BTW, did you all see the “Shoelace” discussion about Robinson from Rod Smith at AnnArbor.com? In my book, that’s a good sign.

by Rasmus on Aug 23, 2009 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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