Just How Good is Iowa's Defense Anyways?

by Beauford on Oct 14, 2010 6:00 AM CDT in Michigan Football

We've all heard from everyone, including Spartan fans that you happened to pass on the street that one time, that the Michigan offensive machine and their key (read: only) cog Denard Robinson was on a collision course with doom when they reached the Big Ten, and "real" defenses. True to the point, Michigan's victories have been thus far over mediocre opposition with borderline-terrible defenses:

Team	Total Defense Nat. Rank
UConn	59
Notre Dame	83
BGSU	119
Indiana	94
MSU (L)	42

FWIW, Umass would be slotted at 109th yielding 440 yards per game. So yeah, that's not good. Iowa comes to Ann Arbor with the #4 ranked defense.

On the flip side of the coin, Michigan enters the game on Saturday with the #3 ranked offense, and with all the "they lost to the first real team they faced" chatter you're hearing, I think it's only fair to put Iowa to the same test. Here is the strength of offense that Iowa's defense has faced to date:

Team	Total Offense Nat. Rank
Iowa State	93
Arizona (L)	26
Ball State	104
Penn State	88

Iowa's 1-AA adventure was to go up against Eastern Illinois, who is averaging 251 yards per game; good enough for 119th if slotted into 1-A.

Caveats, of course, for skewed statistics from having played a nationally dominant defense/offense exist on both sides: these team's rankings would likely be higher if they hadn't had to play Iowa's defense or Michigan's offense depending on what you're looking at. Just for fun, let's average these out, excising 1-aa rankings (even though it would help Michigan's case):

Average Strength of Defense Michigan has Played: 79.4

Average Strength of Offense Iowa has Played: 77.75

The two units have played virtually the same level of competition - weak - and have put together thus far stellar numbers. However, for those inclined to believe that Iowa is going to absolutely lock down the Michigan offense, remember that Iowa hasn't really faced a "real offense" yet either. They held Arizona to 366 total yards, which indeed is down from the 445 YPG they average. Michigan went for 377 against Michigan State, which is up from 336 they usually allow. In both games, turnovers were paramount to the defeat - Arizona returned an INT for a TD (also a kick for a TD), and Michigan State had 2 INT's in the endzone, which for a team leading the nation in redzone effeciency is paramount to giving them 7 points.

So while Iowa fans are cackling with glee (oh, they cackle alright...) at the prospect of their #4 ranked defense taking down an overrated Michigan offense, just remember that their defense, at least based on who they've played, might be just as overrated. Both teams lost when they faced a "real" counterpart; both teams lost primarily because of turnovers and lack of execution. This, of course, means nothing once the game starts. However, for those worried about the Iowa defense, remember that it may be made of just as much smoke and mirrors as they're claiming the Michigan offense is. I wouldn't go around predicting a Michigan win or lose based on this information, but it's certainly something to throw into consideration.

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Number are cool but they don't tell the whole story...

which goes something like this…. over the past few seasons, Iowa has done two things; first they have continued to improve as the season goes on and second they have actually beaten some good teams. Until Michigan can show that they can do either one of those things I have only one word for you – Iowa Pride.

"Have you ever had the Hot Pocket Hot Pocket? It’s Hot Pocket inside a Hot Pocket. Tastes just like a Hot Pocket."

by Kluginator on Oct 14, 2010 7:49 AM CDT reply actions

Oh and cackle.

"Have you ever had the Hot Pocket Hot Pocket? It’s Hot Pocket inside a Hot Pocket. Tastes just like a Hot Pocket."

by Kluginator on Oct 14, 2010 7:50 AM CDT up reply actions

This is definitely a worthwhile question

but I don’t think we have enough data points to really conclude anything here. You definitely have a good offense against a good defense, but there are matchup issues to think about that the overall total o/d numbers don’t address. Iowa’s strength is right up front, and usually a good run defense is able to keep a good run offense in check (where a great pass offense probably beats a great pass defense most of the time). This is all anecdotal, I’ve got no numbers, but perfect passes can’t be defended, and a dline that can’t be moved will stall a run.

And while Iowa definitely has a major edge in the other matchup (Iowa O v Mich D), they also have a tendency to really crumble with momentum at times like they did this year against Arizona and last year against Indiana.

Either way, should be a great game (and really this is a great week of BT football.)

@thefolkist

by KevinHD on Oct 14, 2010 8:30 AM CDT reply actions

While every season in college football results in "new" units on either side of the ball

for the most part, Iowa’s is actually a fairly proven commodity i.e. they only lost 3 players from a defense that did pretty much the same thing last year. For that reason I’m inclined to believe that Iowa’s defensive stats are far closer to the reality than those of Michigan’s offense. The other factor (that you’ve touched on but in a negative fashion) is that the Parker defensive scheme is set up to allow yardage. They key is that it doesn’t allow points; as you pointed out, AZ scored on an INT, kickoff and had an offensive drive start on the Iowa 8 after a blocked punt, which makes the D responsible for 13 points in that game.

Now AZ has a pretty good offense, but let’s say Michigan’s O is significantly better (and I don’t know that they are), what does that translate to in this game? 35 points? 42? I would also point out that Iowa has opened up their offensive playbook exactly once all year (again, at AZ) and it produced 20 points…against a defensive unit that is superior to Michigan’s in every measurable way.

I know statistics can’t always predict the future, especially with so small a sample size, but I maintain that we do already know this Iowa team fairly well…34-24 Iowa.

Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.

by Kyle McCann't on Oct 14, 2010 9:37 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs

Yeah, but those 3 players are OVER HALF THE DEFENSE

Right? Mgomath?

Kyle – that is a very good point and why the comment section is so useful when people actually contribute to the conversation.

The bottom line here, barring crazy turnover issues on both sides, will be whether the Michigan defense can play well enough to allow the Michigan offense to score enough points to win. I don’t know how much that translates to. I think if Michigan scores over 30, then we’re in the game. If they’re held to under 30, then Iowa probably wins by 2 scores. The defense doesn’t have to pitch a shutout, but they do have to (somehow) keep Iowa to around 28-31 to give the offense a chance.

http://maizenbrew.com
Get it?

by Beauford on Oct 14, 2010 9:52 AM CDT up reply actions

I think MSU proved what I had felt the best way to contain Denard was all along;

excellent linebacker play. Sure-tackling, disciplined LBs can neutralize the threat of a running QB and allow the free safety (in this case, the ball-hawking Tyler MF Sash) to play back in coverage. The good news for Michigan is that Iowa lost both of their starting LBs from last year (and they were about as good as it gets). The bad news is that, as has become par for the course, the replacements at that position appear to be every bit as good. The 3rd loss for Iowa is the one that Michigan must exploit if they hope to win; Amari Spivey is the only truly shut-down corner I can ever remember Iowa starting in my lifetime. One could go games without ever hearing his name mentioned because opposing QBs simply couldn’t throw to whomever he was covering. His replacement(s) have been less successful, requiring Sash and SS Brett Greenwood to play in support much more often instead of honing in on the QB or playing center field. If Robinson can exploit the CB deficiency early and often, it will force the safties to hang back and the LBs to play in a pass-supporting role. Then it’s Robinson’s field to run on all day long.

Michigan can absolutely win this game, but I think there’s really only one way to do it…or just pray that Iowa doesn’t show up in the first half a la Tucson and you’ll be up 35 at the intermission.

Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.

by Kyle McCann't on Oct 14, 2010 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions

Do you really believe this?

I mean REALLY?

by sfshilo on Oct 14, 2010 11:21 AM CDT reply actions

Really believe what?

That Michigan could possibly win? That the Iowa defense might not be quite as good as they look on paper? Believe what?

http://maizenbrew.com
Get it?

by Beauford on Oct 14, 2010 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions

No, I can't believe it!

I mean, how could someone be so vague with a comment?!? It just infuriates me…

Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.

by Kyle McCann't on Oct 14, 2010 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions

Yes.

Cackle.

by KinnickNorthHawk on Oct 14, 2010 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions

This!

Cackle!

by Grixxly on Oct 14, 2010 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions

Really?

"Have you ever had the Hot Pocket Hot Pocket? It’s Hot Pocket inside a Hot Pocket. Tastes just like a Hot Pocket."

by Kluginator on Oct 14, 2010 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions

REally?

See what I did there?

And yes, Michigan can win. But implying that the Iowas defense is somehow statistically a paper tiger is waaaaaaay out there.

Could Mich torch Iowa? Hell yes, but it isn’t going to be because the defense is horrible.

Now being on the field all day is a valid arguement, especially if the special teams and offense crap down their leg.

by sfshilo on Oct 14, 2010 4:20 PM CDT up reply actions

Speaking for all Hawkeye fans

I say that Iowa can possibly lose this game but Michigan can’t possibly win it. Actually I didn’t say that, I am paraphrasing SMA from over at BHGP and maybe I don’t actually speak for all Hawkeye fans either but Bob in accounting usually agrees with me. Crinkle.

"Have you ever had the Hot Pocket Hot Pocket? It’s Hot Pocket inside a Hot Pocket. Tastes just like a Hot Pocket."

by Kluginator on Oct 14, 2010 12:53 PM CDT reply actions

Matchups favor Iowa . . .

But “intangibles” favor Michigan. Thus, I’m worried as usual.

Playing at home, with the impetus of proving to the world that despite the MSU game this is not the 2009 season redux, I think Michigan is going to be dangerous.

That said, I have seen nothing, literally nothing, that makes me believe Michigan can stop anyone – let alone a pretty veteran Iowa team – on offense. I mean, UMASS put up nearly 40 points. C’mon.

Spackle.

by Torbee on Oct 14, 2010 2:53 PM CDT reply actions

Our defense is terrible(Well bad but not as bad as we think yet they could barely be worse)

The fact we scored in 45 seconds every time we got the ball against UMASS inflated their numbers because they had 25 possessions in that game.

While this isn’t really all that accurate my point is it hurts our defense stats when we stay on the field for 17 minutes scoring so quickly and give umass and other teams 25% higher number of drives than most offenses get in a normal game.

It’s like a comparison between a vacuum and a black hole. Tulsa is a black hole we’re just a Vacuum… A Dyson perhaps but still a vacuum.

On a positive note I heard that a make a wish kid asked for a UM defense and the UM genetics department is currently wrestling with the legal and moral ramifications of cloning 5 Woodson’s 3 Simpkons and 3 Brandon Grahms to be ready for tOSU game.

by goblue14 on Oct 15, 2010 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions