Thoughts on Indiana
by Remember Bo on Oct 4, 2010 10:41 AM CDT
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Print[Bumped, says what we're all thinking - MnB Dave]
Just a few quick observations on the Indiana game, from offense to defense.
Offensively, we've been waiting for the kind of output from RichRod's spread he had at West Virginia, and through the first week of Big Ten football, it's pretty clear that this has arrived, and then some. Denard was electric again on Saturday, but what I also liked was the depth of his offensive repertoire. ESPN showed some kind of ridiculous graph that showed all the tools in his arsenal - shockingly, his options are to pass it, run it, option it, or hand it off. This dreadfully shallow analysis aside, I really liked the way he's setting up his passes with his own run fakes - starting early in the first quarter on a long drive and continuing throughout the game with some nice, pinpoint passes. By my count, there were two or three long passes where the receiver was open or would have been open on his long bombs, but I'm confident that his misfires will decrease as the season wears on.
For players not named Denard, it was nice to see Vinny Smith averaging just shy of nine yards per carry. Though he had a long one, inflating his numbers a bit, that kind of home run speed was lacking earlier in the season, and he filled in well for Michael Shaw. Also nice to see that defenses can't completely sell out to stop Denard. Roundtree turned in another admirable performance, turning only five catches into 126 yards and a score. As I mentioned in SHH, Hemingway also came through in the clutch, providing Denard with a deep threat lacking with Stonum's noticeably quiet day.
Defensively, I'm not going to recap what you all saw and every pundit in America is saying, but Chappell threw for 480 yards. The statements right now from most experts are "Denard will be in New York, but the defense won't get him to Pasadena". At this point in the season, I tend to agree, but since the offense hasn't really been stopped yet, I'm still positive about the outcome of the season. Sure, it's easy to say when M is 5-0, but GERG has always operated a "bend but don't break" system hinging on the linebackers, so as long as Mouton and Ezeh have at least fairly decent games, we should be just fine. That said, the defense broke a few times on Saturday. The 19-yard touchdown on a 4th and 5 was inexcuseable. A championship team makes that stop. On the flip side, Mike Martin killed a few drives a la BG a year ago. Why did GERG only rush three so often? This has befuddled me throughout the season. It is absolutely essential with a young secondary to ease their load by making the QB throw in a hurry. I'm not advocating leaving the corners on an island, but let's at least see some disguised coverage and more five-six man pressues, especially against bigger/running formations. When there's a running back in the backfield, you rush at least four every time, otherwise even a porous O-line has a huge advantage and can create opportunities.
Looking forward to MSU. A game M should have won last year returns to Ann Arbor in a pretty much must-win game for Rodriguez's crew. Here's hoping for big things and stable knees.
One win till bowl elgibility.
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Is Denard calling his own number too often?
After the BG game, it seems like we have real depth in the backfield besides Denard. Given that there is a literal stable of backs who can block and run, I am starting to wonder if Denard is overusing his own feet. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a young, fast QB rely too much on his feet relative to his arm. Denard definitely doesn’t seem to be doing that. In fact, as you point out, he seems to be using his speed to pull defenses forward, and creating a lot of space over the middle. It is starting to strike me though, that he doesn’t put the ball in the hands of a back enough. If he’s going to survive conference play, he’s going to need to let the RBs take some of the beating. Penn State, Iowa and Wisconsin look like opponents who’s defenses could do more than knock Denard out for a few series or even a few games.
At this point, Denard has a real chance to win the Heisman. The only thing that will kill that is if he’s injured the last 4 games.
by David Mieczkowski on Oct 4, 2010 4:32 PM CDT reply actions
I don't think he's calling his own number too much
He only ran the ball 19 times last game, and had Michigan gone up 21-7 I suspect we would’ve seen fewer carries. IMHO, I don’t think PSU or Wisconsin’s defenses look more intimidating or “knock-out”-ish than MSU’s defense does. We can worry about Denard getting hurt, but it’s not going to change that the offense runs through him and he has to run for the system to work.
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by Maize n Brew Dave on Oct 4, 2010 4:38 PM CDT up reply actions
But is he doing the zone read well?
It’s not so much a question of is he running to much and will get injured, though this is a bit of a concern, but is his speed letting him get away with some zone mis-reads? Sure, I love watching him break off 72 yard runs, but the RBs have shown an ability to bust open some big gains themselves. Not being that familiar with the zone read, I’m not able to tell if he’s making the right read all the time, or if he’s just so fast that he’s able to make a poor read and get away with it.
Don’t get me wrong, I’ve been extremely impressed by his ability to throw, and that he’s aware enough to take advantage of defenses that try to cheat the run. I’ve been absolutely amazed at how patient he is in waiting for a crease to open up. That said, I’ve just read a lot of “one man show” type of commentary regarding Denard and it just doesn’t jive with the talent that the RB pool seems to have shown. There may be no Steve Slaton in this group, but the WVU spread option seemed to have more balance between the QB running vs the RB running, at least when looking at season cummulative statistics. Take away the BG game, and it seems like Denard is keeping the ball 3 or 4 to 1. With the exception of UConn, teams have not been secretive about who any unblocked defenders are likely to go after, and it’s not the RB. With all that, I just wondered if maybe he was keeping it more than he should, strictly speaking, or if RR was just calling in a lot of designed QB runs knowing that a Denard is his golden goose, so to speak.
by David Mieczkowski on Oct 4, 2010 7:42 PM CDT up reply actions
It's tough to tell
Obviously, no one can predict when a QB gets hurt – and I know none of these are Denard, but our neighbors at MGoBlog have discussed it extensively in this post. Except for one year, the “level 2” QBs a la Tate have gotten hurt the most, because they’re taking hits head-on from the hardest hitters on the team. Pocket QBs get hurt less, and to be honest, Denard hasn’t been touched a lot, but I’d love to see him run out of bounds more (remember that injury vs BGSU?) I really didn’t like the fumbled snap this past week because he was at the bottom of lots of big bodies, and I didn’t like a couple of his runs right up the middle and the TD run. Every time he gets hit, I get scared, but football is a contact sport.
At the end of the day, though, M can’t change its gameplan at this point to “protect” Denard. My favorite play of the IU game was the run fake he made – from the shotgun, he ran a few yards toward the LOS, then passed to Roundtree. He’s done ths a few times, and it’s essential that he runs to set up those fakes.
I don’t want to see the ball in the hands of a back too much – I’d much rather see those swing passes out wide and let the WRs get outside and down the field. That’s a RichRod offense, not one that sees a RB get 30 carries in a game.
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