Fun With Numbers: Michigan's 2009 Red Zone Offense
by SCM on May 18, 2010 11:45 AM CDT
in Michigan Football
Email
PrintSome statistics in this wonderful game of ours probably get a little too much "play" in terms of how much of a role they play in success on the gridiron, for example time of possession, but there are others that do seem to carry some weight. I'd argue that this is the case with Red Zone Offense, particularly when you're the University of Michigan Football team who managed to finish... wait for it....
116th in the nation in Red Zone Offense last year
The other statistics involved in that ranking are as infuriating as Michigan's inability to punch the ball in from the one yard line against Illinois last fall (where the season officially fell apart by the way).
- 66.7% conversion percentage inside the red zone, absolute worst in the nation was 61%
- 25 TDs (19 rushing, 6 passing) and 7 field goals in 48 possessions inside the 20... this means that every time Michigan went inside the 20, it had a slightly better chance than a coin-flip at scoring a TD (52%)
- Teams the Wolverines were more effective than in the red zone? Hawaii, Rice, Akron, and Kent State
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO via www.illinoisloyalty.com
This somehow makes Michigan's 41st ranked scoring offense seem a little more impressive than I would've originally given it credit for. This also means that of the Maize and Blue's 48 touchdowns last season, a whopping 47.9% came from outside the 20 yard line. Where the statistic of "red zone offense" somehow falls short is that it essentially treats any score in the red zone as equal, which of course they are not, 7 points tends to be more than 3 points, etc, etc. So the statistic leaves out one of the old "truisms" of football where settling for field goals tends to be a recipe for disaster (see Michigan v Texas in the Rose Bowl or Michigan v ND in '04... arrrrrrrrrrrg), I mean who cares if you score 96% of the time you're inside the 20 if 80% of those scores are for 3 points? So, what if we examined TD's only? We'll call the stat RZTD% just for the heck of it, the number in parenthesis is the team's national rank in overall red zone offense, [EDIT: I failed to mention that these numbers are gleamed from the NCAA statistics site, my apologies] :
- Wisconsin (T3rd), 42 TDs in 56 trips: 75% RZTD
- Purdue (T20th), 25 TDs in 34 trips: 73.5% RZTD
- Illinois (T56th), 25 TDs in 38 trips: 65.7% RZTD
- Penn State (T20th), 29 TDs in 49 trips: 59.1% RZTD
- MSU (T27th), 25 TDs in 44 trips: 56.8% RZTD
- Northwestern (T77th), 25 TDs in 45 trips: 55.5% RZTD
- Iowa (T41st), 20 TDs in 37 trips: 54% RZTD
- Ohio State (T84th), 25 TDs in 47 trips: 53.2% RZTD
- Minnesota (T77th), 23 TDs in 44 trips: 52.3% RZTD
- Michigan (T116th), 25 TDs in 48 trips: 52.1% RZTD
- Indiana (T93rd), 22 TDs in 43 trips: 51.2% RZTD
- Ohio State, 1 for 3 (TD)... 1 turnover (int)
- Wisconsin, 2 for 3 (TD, FG)
- Purdue, 2 for 3 (2 TDs)... 1 turnover on downs
- Illinois, 3 for 7 (TD, 2 FGs)... 2 turnovers on downs, one fumble, and another fumble on the 21...
- Penn State, 2 for 4 (TD, FG)
- Iowa, 3 for 3 (3 TDs)
- Michigan State, 2 for 4 (TD, FG)... 2 turnovers (int, fumble)
4 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Great analysis!
Yeah, hold on to the damn ball guys. There are a lot of people who think that running spread sets down inside the 20 are counterproductive due to the short field, etc. RR likes to use I-formation at times by the goal line. With the right QB in spread formations, you can really have defensive heads on a swivel down there.
Still, there’s something to note about Wisconsin’s approach down there in the end zone. They know exactly what they’re going to do. Everyone in the stadium and TV knows what they’re going to do. And there isn’t a damn thing anyone can do about it.
I sort of wish Michigan would get back to that mentality – the inglourious bastard fullback off tackle play, Rob Lytle- and Jarrod Bunch-style. You know, where their helmets are so scratched up, you can barely make out the wings and stripes that are on it.
Touchdown Michigan!
Go Blue!
Thanks!
You’re exactly right Markus on both points there. I would argue that you don’t change your offensive approach down inside the 20, if you run the spread, keep the team wide and give the QB the option of running or passing and let it fly, you also have nice wide lanes if you decide to put it in your RBs hands… seemed to work out ok for Vince Young and Co. Like you said, there’s so many options available to the QB that I don’t think you should suddenly try to jam a square peg into a round hole and completely change your approach.
That said, it’s inside the 20 where I dearly miss old-school Michigan football, there we exactly two plays (I’m exaggerating… kind of) the fade and the straight ahead blast. We threw rock damnit and you weren’t going to stop us from doing so. That tradition was carried on with Thomas, Perry, and Hart, and it’s a pretty easy equation: beast tackle, beast running back, give ball to running back, run forward. Two of my all time favorite TD’s are Chris Perry’s overtime winner against Penn State in ‘02 and Mike Hart’s TD to clinch it against a top 10 Penn State team in ‘05, both of which are perfect examples of the “throw rock” philosophy. Those were straight ahead, you’re not stopping this, just try type of runs… sigh, I miss it. If only Minor could’ve been healthy….
GO BLUE! http://www.maizenbrew.com/
Love the article
Great things to think about and nice analysis. Although you didn’t state it explicitly in the post, the implication is, of course, that Michigan did much better inside the redzone (overall and RZTD%) in their 5 wins.
Rob Lytle and Jarrod Bunch were before my time as a Michigan fan – I grew up in Georgia (Dawgs fan) and started at UM in 1994, so wasn’t keenly aware of the history and players, in particular. However, I did love that ability to get deep in the red zone and have it be a foregone conclusion that we’d rush it in for a score on the backs of guys like Chris Floyd.
Finally, funny how so many mgoblogisms have penetrated the Michigan blogosphere – throw rock, for instance. Love it…
Yeah, the "throwing rock" was an all time favorite of mine
Because it so perfectly encapsulated DeBord in all possible ways. All time rock throwing game? That Michigan Penn State game in ’07… I still cannot believe they came in and tried to run on us when Oregon and App State had shown how to shred our defense to pieces through the air.
GO BLUE! http://www.maizenbrew.com/
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
