Wins and Losses Will Determine Rodriguez' Fate, Nothing Else
The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the inequities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who, in the name of charity and good will, shepherds the weak through the valley of the darkness. For he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost children. And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempt to poison and destroy my brothers.
And you will know my name is the Lord when I lay my vengeance upon you. - Jules Winnfield
As the off-season drags into it's sixth month we've finally hit the point where the only thing left to talk about is the job security of the nation's high profile college coaches. And for Michigan fans, that means yet another nauseating round of unsupported speculation about Rich Rodriguez's future at Michigan. We know how it will go down. It will be mean spirited. It will focus solely on the negative aspects of Rodriguez's short tenure at Michigan. It will talk about his messy departure from Morgantown. They'll probably be a mention or two about how he isn't a "Michigan Man". As you can see, this ain't our first rodeo.
So it's probably not a surprise Rodriguez's supporters are ready to go all Jules Winnfield on people outside the program speculating in print about Rodriguez's future. Just like with all the talk about Big Ten Expansion, no one outside of Dave Brandon's office has a clue what awaits Rodriguez after this season, but it won't stop the rumor mill from churning.
Ever since the conclusion of the 2009 season all Michigan fans have gotten to listen about from the media is wild speculation about the future of their head coach. Will this be his final season? Will the Wolverines hire Harbaugh, Miles, raise Bo from the grave, or use all that state funding to clone a combination of Yost, Crisler and Bo to lead the Wolverines out of their doldrums?
But no one has facts. The only support for everyone's assertions are conclusory and self serving statements like: "And Michigan Fans won't take much more of this," or "After decades of winning this could be it." Despite repeated responses from the Michigan Athletic Department, the media refuses to believe what it is told over and over again: Rodriguez isn't going anywhere. It's as if they think there's a darker secret waiting underneath David Brandon's statements.
What gets to Wolverine fans more than the losing is the Detroit and national media's seeming obsession with creating problems where none exist. Heaping on made up problems where the situation at hand doesn't warrant them. We're actually doing all right here in Ann Arbor, and most of us really like the guy wearing the head set. We're just tired of people trying to tear him down for no reason.
We know there's so much more to Rodriguez than he's given credit for. Sadly, we also know those things will never see the front page of a newspaper because it doesn't serve the purpose of tearing him down. No one talks about the fact that it was Rodriguez and his wife that approached the Athletic Department about turning the Spring Game into a fundraiser for a local hospital. Working with the athletic department the Spring Game raised over $300,000 dollars for charity. Oh, and if you're wondering what my source is for that, it's David Brandon. See what I did there? I directly attributed information that I used in an article to support my position. Imagine that.
Everyone wants to focus on the negative things that have been said about Rodriguez, but no one pays much attention to the support he gets from his players. For every Morgan Trent there's a Brandon Graham. For every Justin Boren there's an Elliot Mealer and his brother Brock. No one in the Detroit media talks about how Rodriguez staff work with Brock to help him regain his ability to walk, and how Brock will lead Michigan out of the tunnel when the Wolverines start their season against UConn. But it's out there. And as Michigan fans we're proud of our coach for that.
What it all comes down to for Rodriguez are wins and loses. This is year three. These are his players. This is his system. Unless improvement is shown, and god forbid a regression occurs, he will be on the hot seat but only to the extent his on-field performance has been sub par. All this extraneous nonsense, the ancillary speculation, the mean spirited "investigations"... we've had enough.
As much as Michigan fans hate to lose, I doubt anyone within or without this program hates losing more than Rich Rodriguez. He is not a coach accustomed to losing. Lost in all the speculation about his job is the fact he is a hell of a football coach. He didn't return West Virginia to prominence by accident. Those Mountaineer teams weren't winning BCS games by luck. They were dominant. Look further back and you'll see his success at Clemson and before that at Tulane.
Rodriguez won five games last year (and lost three games by six points or less) with two freshmen quarterbacks, a young offensive line missing it's best player, and a defense struggling to fill gargantuan holes left by substandard recruiting before Rodriguez arrived. While it's true the pressure is on him to win, it's not like the pressure would be any less had Michigan won 6 or 7 games last year. The pressure is always there.
Rodriguez recruiting to Michigan has been stellar. His football players are doing better in school than they have in 20 years. If there is pressure to win in 2010, it is because he now has an experienced offense to work with. The defense, while improving, is still a work in progress. But it should be capable of making enough stops to keep Michigan in games. So the pieces are there for Rodriguez to silence his critics for at least another year.
As the discussion rolls on, people will point to the pending NCAA investigation and the pending announcement of self-sanctions on the program as a reason Rodriguez is on shaky ground. To an extent, they would be right. No one who gets their program sanctioned in any way can be considered indispensable. But if the infractions were that bad, Rodriguez would be long gone by now. If the athletic department felt he was in the least bit culpable for significant violations of NCAA code, he'd have been fired. That's how it works at Michigan. The fact he remains the head coach speaks volumes about the NCAA investigation and about the faith this administration has in him.
Another thing that plays in Rodriguez favor is that Michigan does not want to go through another transition on the field. The present transition has been rough enough, and the prospect of changing systems again will likely set the program back another three to four years. Also lost in the local media clamor for a coaching change is how outsiders will look at the Michigan job. Prior to coming to Michigan, Rodriguez was one of the most respected and desirable coaches in all of Division 1. He had a sterling record, a history of charity work, a great recruiting prowess, and the list goes on. What coach in their right mind would take this job if someone like Rodriguez is run out of town on a rail after only three years? What happens to that coach if the local media takes a dislike to him, the way they did with Rodriguez? It's a fair pair of questions and ones David Brandon will have to address before any thing happens with Rodriguez's future.
Rodriguez did not get this job by accident or mistake. He was the best available coach in the country at the time of his hiring. He is also the best coach to lead Michigan back to prominence. If his future is in doubt, it is because Michigan has losing seasons two straight years and a third straight losing season is unheard of at Michigan. But that future hasn't been written. And as far as we're concerned, as long as this team continues to improve, Rodriguez job is safe. If it doesn't, then it's not.
So please, media people, stick to the facts. Don't drag things through the mud. Just look at the bottom line. Wins and losses. And by the end of this year, you'll have your answer.
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"...left by substandard recruiting before Rodriguez arrived."
Buckeye fan here…trying to understand this all too familiar rant on this and other UM blogs. I just went to Rivals to look at UM vs OSU recruiting class rankings and cannot fathom how this is the case. Perhaps on a position by position basis, one can make that claim, but overall, Michigan did a slightly better job of recruiting than OSU. During the years 2005-2008 (the last 4 years of Carr’s recruiting), UM vs OSU rankings were:
05 — 6 vs 12 – UM
06 — 13 vs 12 – OSU
07 — 12 vs 15 – UM
08 — 10 vs 4 – OSU
I hardly call that substandard. One could make the argument that on the field UM underachieved given the talent level of recruits they brought in. That is both under Carr AND Rodriquez.
by Pompano Buckeye on May 24, 2010 10:13 AM CDT reply actions
yeah true, but..
Thats true, but they are almost all on the offensive side. We haven’t gotten many top name d recruits and Carr didn’t do a great job keeping or cultivating them.
And how many years has Notre Dame been high on those lists? and how many years have they had fewer losses than the Buckeyes?
by canzior1817 on May 24, 2010 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions
I will agree that recruiting class rankings don't tell the whole story...
but they should at least represent “potential”. And if class doesn’t live up to it ranking, isn’t that the coaches fault? It should be, because when a class plays above it’s ranking, it is always the coach that gets all of the credit. Rodriquez has been lauded because of his ability to take 2-3 star recruits and turning them into championship caliber teams. Shouldn’t he have been able to take top 6-13 classes and turn them into at least “winning” teams (> 6 wins). That “new system” argument only carries so much water.
by Pompano Buckeye on May 24, 2010 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions
Has more to do with numbers than rankings
If your ranking is inflated due to “high” rated recruits (i.e. three or four 4* recruits), but there’s no depth in terms of 3 star and 2 star recruits, you’re doomed if those limited 4 stars don’t pan out. And that’s been the case. We had few defensive recruits in these classes, but those recruits were highly rated. When they didn’t pan out, Michigan had no depth to fall back on as a stop gap.
I’ll stress it again, read this and you’ll understand where we’re coming from.
Maize n Brew
Because Football is Better with Beer
by Maize n Brew Dave on May 24, 2010 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions
I have read it...read it when first posted...and read it again this morning...
and if UM had been winning the last couple of years, no one would have taken the time to break the numbers down to show why UM shouldn’t have won. And that is all okay…I for one wouldn’t do it for the Buckeyes…other than an exercise to kill some time.
So, is this the year that seals the fate of RR one way or the other, or should he get a 4th year to prove one way or the other which of the many arguments, both for and against him, are salient?
by Pompano Buckeye on May 24, 2010 10:59 AM CDT up reply actions
As long as there is improvement, I think he stays
Wins will follow improvement. I think if Michigan back slides this year he’ll probably be in warmer water. But with Brandon being on the initial selection committee and his constant re-affirmation of Rodriguez’ job security, I think he gets four years.
It’s also a practical thing. If we fire people after three years and don’t allow them to implement their systems, we’re not going to have a lot of quality people interested in the job. Just MHO
Maize n Brew
Because Football is Better with Beer
by Maize n Brew Dave on May 24, 2010 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions
Did you read the Second Part?
Part II was where I really got into it. There’s also a Godfather Part III-themed Part III (all good things in trilogies, right?) now if you’re interested in seeing what things will look like next year.
Also in Part III you can see in another way how the units within the defense (DLs, LBs, DBs) were filled, and get a sense of what went down. Here’s Michigan’s last year:

Here’s Ohio State:

You tell me: which defense is likely to be better?
As for this:
and if UM had been winning the last couple of years, no one would have taken the time to break the numbers down to show why UM shouldn’t have won.
You obviously are not familiar with the Michigan fan’s particular type of mania, which is that we still believe we can convince people things by using honest analysis and reasoning to prove what we are saying beyond a shadow of a doubt (as if people change their opinions anymore, right?). If we were on a 7-year unbeaten streak, I’d have written something twice as long proving why our defense is hella awesome. This is because I am nuts. But for a football team, so it’s cool.
Mmmmmm 7-year unbeaten streak.
As for salient arguments, I haven’t really heard a lot of them against Rich Rod — not because they aren’t out there, but because the morons with the non-salient points have very large bullhorns (and radio towers and printing presses) and the people who are saying “Rich Rod sucks because he hired Shafer to be his DC,” are getting drowned out by the people saying “AGoidsajf;lkasjflknlkfsalkdjflkaI’mDrewSharpflkjalkdfDSAFblargh.”*
- Not to be confused with “On the banks of the Red Cedar…”
When the weird turn pro, the going get tough.
by Misopogon on May 24, 2010 4:48 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Meant to give you these:
Michigan 2009:

Ohio State 2009:

Note the quality of recruits is high but the quantity is way down, especially at Defensive Back. That’s why the Buckeyes had a fantastic defensive backfield last year while Michigan was starting a walk-on at safety, even though by average recruiting ranking they were probably fairly similar.
When the weird turn pro, the going get tough.
by Misopogon on May 24, 2010 4:52 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
+1,000,000
Maize n Brew
Because Football is Better with Beer
by Maize n Brew Dave on May 24, 2010 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions
I hear this defense of RichRod all the time
Namely, that the defensive recruiting was substandard and there was no one on board. But doesn’t that kind of gloss over RichRod’s own mistakes/faults/stubbornness? To wit, it was clear that Michigan’s personnel were not suited to the spread offense that Rodriguez has run/wanted to run, so his early recruiting (especially his first two classes) focused heavily on offensive personnel. This is understandable, but it also had the effect that he, Rodriguez, wasn’t recruiting defensive players, despite their being on obvious need. And I think you can hold RichRod responsible for his determination to run the spread, and ONLY the spread, despite not having the personnel for it, rather than trying to ease into the completely new offense over 2-3 seasons. Instead, RichRod was determined to do things HIS WAY, and only his way,. damn the reality of the team he had to work with.
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
Not really
If you look at the personnel he inheritted on offense when he arrived, only Steve Schilling had any legit experience on the line. He had two lousy freshmen quarterbacks (steven threet is warming the bench at ASU now). He had two good running backs that were made out of balsa wood. He had one experienced receiver who was slower than our linemen.
People always ask, “why didn’t he run a traditional offense?” The answer he’s given makes a lot of sense: 90% of the offense had never worked under any kind of college offensive system, so no matter what was installed, it was going to be a challenge to get them ready. So rodriguez and his staff conciously installed their system because that was waht he was hired to do, and that was what would pay the highest dividends down the road.
And the he ran “only” the spread argument doesn’t work. The system he ran in 2008 and 2009 wasn’t his traditional offense. I think the first year Michigan passed 50% of the time. Rodriguez’ normal offense runs 70% of the time. Rodriguez tried to do different things with his offense and defense. They just didn’t work with the personnel he had.
Maize n Brew
Because Football is Better with Beer
by Maize n Brew Dave on May 24, 2010 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions
Being stubborn, or doing things YOUR WAY, can pay off.
Sometimes I think people’s dislike for Rich Rodriguez really blinds them from many other examples of coaches applying the exact same principles to their work.
If Rodriguez had a shaky coaching track record and no concrete examples of success at his earlier gigs at Glenville State, Tulane, Clemson and West Virginia, then I’d buy your argument above that one should be more even handed when coming into a new situation with new players. But then you’d also have to say that Lou Holtz has no business installing a wishbone option offense at Notre Dame in 1986 (following the ridiculous high school offense run and recruited for by Gerry Faust between 1981-1985, with quarterbacks like….wait for it… Steve Beurlein!!!). But wait! Holtz had a successful track record at William & Mary, Arkansas and even Big Ten doormat at the time Minnesota applying these exact same offensive principles (option offense, wishbone). The results? The Irish went 5-6 in 1986. Did they slit their wrists? They did not.
Consider also what Paul Johnson did at both Navy and Georgia Tech. Did Johnson pause and “think about the children!”, i.e. the “team he had to work with” before he installed an offense that the Yellow Jackets hadn’t run since 1977? He undoubtedly did, for about a nanosecond, but he forged ahead anyway recalling all of those things that worked so well for him at Georgia Southern – and with pretty decent results for the Yellow Jackets if you ask me.
I don’t view the practice of applying systems that work wherever you’ve been as stubborness or arrogance. I call it experience and wisdom. It’s also very common behavior among college football coaches. I think Rodriguez ’s decision to forge ahead with HIS WAY and his systems on offense and defense has been a wise one, though not yet yielding the desired results. In time, those results should come.
We already know that Brian Kelly has burned Charlie Weis’s pro set offense playbook at Notre Dame. Is Kelly going to pause for a moment before having a pro style QB Dayne Christ keep the ball on a zone read play? Tony Pike was 6 foot 6 and 225 lbs. I seriously doubt Kelly will have any second thoughts. Kelly’s system is very similar to Rodriguez’s on offense and it has worked wonders at Grand Valley State, Central Michigan and Cincy. I’m convinced it will work at Notre Dame in time as well.
Go Blue!
It has to do with Defensive recruiting and retention
Michigan’s defensive recruiting was very limitted and had a high attrition rate even BEFORE Rodriguez got there. There was also the issue of positional recruiting. Many of Carr’s recruits were out-of-position recruits. LB’s recruited to play DE. Safeties recruited to play LB. RB’s recruited to play DB or LB. It wasn’t pretty.
So while the “numbers” were high in terms of recruiting rankings, the actual results on the Defensive side of the ball were awful. Click on the “fill gargantuan holes left by substandard recruiting before Rodriguez arrived” links above for the details. The details are frightening.
Maize n Brew
Because Football is Better with Beer
by Maize n Brew Dave on May 24, 2010 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions
I would love to see class rankings broken down by Offense and Defense...
and perhaps it does exist. Special teams also would be nice, but that is a more nebulous kind of number because most special teams are made up of multi-use players. In any event, OSU has had to rely on it’s Defense in too many games over the years, and I can only imagine how terrible our record would be without a solid D. On the other hand, a great O can cover a multitude of sins by a less than stellar D.
by Pompano Buckeye on May 24, 2010 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions
whoa...
Dude..you gotta be careful with this substantiated reporting. We don’t want the “big media types” to get a hold of this. Do you know what would happen if responsible journalism caught on? Chaos!!! I mean Buckeye fan in Columbus after an OOC win vs instate directional school chaos!!
Great post
I liked the last line: “And by the end of this year, you’ll have your answer.”
I think this is important. Michigan is fortunate this year in that they’ll be tested early vs. UConn and at Notre Dame the first two weeks. Michigan will play 7 bowl teams in 2010, 5 of which won their bowl games. So while it’s not difficult to envision a possible 0-2 start for UM this fall, this would not be the full story either. In 2009 Michigan started out the season white hot and 4-0, but cooled off with close defeats on the road to MSU and Iowa. The PSU loss started an avalanche on Michigan’s young and banged up team.
I think 2010 could be a reverse scenario, where Michigan starts out the season cool, but warms up as the year progresses. The Detroit press will want to try and hang Rodriguez after the Notre Dame game. But in the Big Ten this fall I really think Michigan is the team to watch all the way up to the Ohio State game in Columbus.
Go Blue!
RR didn't get the job by accident
While I agree that RR didn’t get the job “by accident.” Let’s not act like Bill Martin didn’t completely botch the Les Miles deal. It was pretty clear that man should be our head coach right now if Martin had screwed the pooch then panicked and hired a guy who wins football games in an entirely different way than we had been for the previous 40 years. Bottom line, regardless of RR becomes the greatest coach in the history of Michigan football, he was for certain not our first choice and I don’t believe the best option for us at the time.
That's well and good but....
once Miles was out of the picture, who the hell should we have hired? At that time rodriguez was the best candidate.
Maize n Brew
Because Football is Better with Beer
by Maize n Brew Dave on May 24, 2010 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions
First choices
I don’t know if Miles should have been Michigan’s coach right now. Miles seems pretty happy at LSU these days. Since 1969 most Michigan coaches inherited their position simply by association with King Bo. I think it’s hard for Michigan fans with hang ups on what constitutes a “Michigan Man” (i.e. Disciple of Bo or Bust) to come to grips with any form of change.
Unlike Schembechler back in 1969, Rodriguez was a very hot commodity in college football in 2007-2009. Unlike Bo, Rodriguez had a lot of wins, championships and coaching awards to his credit before he ever arrived at Michigan.
Go Blue!

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