Since 2001 Rodriguez is 16-16 in October, 1-8 at Michigan
by markusr2007 on Sep 28, 2010 7:44 AM CDT
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PrintThe month of October used to be a damn fine month for Rodriguez. At WVU between 2001 and 2007 Rodriguez was 15-5 in October. At Michigan he's 1-8 so far. Overall he's 16-16 (.500 winning pct).
And so here we are again - last week of September with October ready to barge in.
Michigan is 4-0, done with it's appetizers and ready to dig in to the main course of the Big Ten menu- starting on the road against perennial conference doormat, 3-0 Indiana in Bloomington
There is plenty of evidence that Michigan's 2010 squad is considerably better than the 2009 squad that also started their season off 4-0 but then spiraled out of control to lose 7 of their last 8. One big difference is a jaw-dropping offensive attack now ranked No. 2 in the land in total offense and ranked No.2 in rushing yardage. The other is Denard Robinson, who should be back to start for the Wolverines after a scary knee injury last weekend against Bowling Green.
The Michigan defense, however, led by DC Greg Robinson, remains to be a major liability for success after just 4 games played:
Scoring defense: 10th in the league, giving up 23 points per game
Rushing defense: 8th in the league, giving up 135 yards per game
Rushing 1st downs: 9th, permitting 29 first downs
Passing defense: 11th in the league (worst team), giving up 265 yards per game in the air
With a defense playing like that, sure, you might get to a bowl game, but the Big Ten Championship trophy might as well be need placed in a pretty little box, located on a shelf within a glorious display case on another planet 100 quadrillion light years away.
If you want to predict a Big Ten Champion for 2010, my advice would be to look at the top 3 or 4 teams in rushing and scoring defense right now. One of those teams is going to reveal itself in the coming 3 weeks. Even now, after 4 weeks of Big Ten teams dining on creampuffs, our findings will not surprise:
Best Total Defenses (Yds/Gm): Iowa, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Best Rushing Defenses: Iowa, Ohio State, Illinois (guh!?)
Best Scoring Defenses: Iowa, Penn State, Wisconsin
Best Passing Defense: Penn State, Indiana and Iowa
Setting the laws of both physics and non-repeatable and ridiculous turnover margins aside, Iowa appears to be well positioned to compete for the Big Ten hardware once again, as do both Ohio State and Wisconsin. Penn State is playing fairly solid defense also. Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa and Wisconsin: Over the last several years, these 4 teams are almost always leading the rest of the Big Ten pack in defensive performance.
But not Michigan.
While I'm thoroughly enjoying Michigan's unceremonious smashing of long-standing offensive record books under Rodriguez this fall, I'm learning that my preseason concerns were valid ones. Michigan is probably a year or two away from fielding a decent defense, mainly because they are so damn young and mainly because they have had no consistency at the DC position since 2005.
The Big Ten season starts for Michigan in Bloomington and we already know there will be trouble of some measure. What's more, Rodriguez can no longer hide the grimaced exchanges with his defensive coaching staff on the sidelines, like the ones this last weekend against Bowling Green. RichRod's frustration on defense is more than evident.
As for Saturday's game against the Hoosiers, Greg Robinson's defense (the most generous Michigan defensive unit in the modern era, ranked 93rd allowing 400 yard per game) will be tested once again. Hoosier quarterback Ben Chappell is playing very well albeit against questionable competition: 72% throwing accuracy, 890 yards, 9 TDs and zero interceptions.
Any opinions expressed in Fanposts or Fanshots are not the opinions of Maize n Brew. Peruse at your own risk.
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dunno if this is right...
but that reads to me like he was 0-3 before 2001
The will to win is important, but the will to prepare is vital.
Joe Paterno
You're right
0-3 as a HC prior to 2001. Then he went on a tear.
Maize n Brew
Because Football is Better with Beer
by Maize n Brew Dave on Sep 28, 2010 7:48 AM CDT up reply actions
conference play begins this Saturday ...
and that is where meaningful statistics begin. The quality of the non-conference schedule can mask the truth – especially statistical averages.
Go Blue !
Not true
Despite playing a schedule with opponents average overall ranking much higher than last season’s per Sagarin, Michigan is averaging four more points per game and 140 yards more per game (!!!!). We’re also taking care of the football and turning it over on defense. Statistics only mean so much, but it’s silly to say they’re meaningless at this point in the season. Forget 2009, it’s 2010, this is a different, and all-together better, football team.
GO BLUE! http://www.maizenbrew.com/
Additionally...
1. Denard and David Molk
2. Denard
3. Denard
4. David Molk
5. Actually… the entire O-line
GO BLUE! http://www.maizenbrew.com/
I think I misread your original point, my apologies...
You weren’t speaking just about M were you.
GO BLUE! http://www.maizenbrew.com/
hold on a second...
I don’t like the defensive stats, because we have played more capable opponents than a lot of our conference brethren. A lot of these schools haven’t played a true contender (even preseason) yet. MSU gave up 461 yards to Notre Dame(only 12 fewer passing yards than UM), which is about what we would’ve given up had it not been for 1 play. Comparing stats in college isn’t always useful because there is a drastic difference in competition. No one is torching MSU’s defense for the yards they gave up. We aren’t as bad as people think. 23 points a game against 3 returning, upperclassmen qb’s isn’t bad at all.
Not saying you are wrong
but, when comparing the UM v. ND game to the MSU v. ND game remember that Crist mist almost the entire first half.
The flipside is that Crist lead exactly one drive that whole game...
The very first one, and after that he connected on two passes that Cameron Gordon played like a guy playing his second game ever at Safety. For all those that point out that he only played a half, I think it’s equally fair to say that you take even one of those plays away and ND’s offensive output wasn’t anything to get too worried over.
For all of the worries about the D, we’re already doing something that we simply couldn’t do last year: getting the football back. Creating turnovers and making plays. This is an incredibly young squad on D, they’re going to make gaffes, but we have an offense that can carry the load, and I still expect to see this D improve as the year goes on.
GO BLUE! http://www.maizenbrew.com/
That's exactly why it is so terrible!
23 POINTS PER GAME?!?! “ISN’T BAD AT ALL.”???? I’m sorry, but with respect, that is awful and unforgivable defense that will cost us games this season!! One of the reasons why nobody has torched Michigan State’s defense is that they have a history of having poor defenses! 400ypg and 23ppg against our defense is absolutely inexcusable, as Michigan has had historically INCREDIBLE defenses!! I think Bo is rolling over in his grave and cursing Robinson up in Heaven.
We have to improve, and I’m sure we will, but let’s not sugar coat it! And never compare US against MSU again! :) This is an 8-4 team; we may hang tough with the likes of Wisconsin, Iowa, Penn State, and even OSU, but I will be unbelievably flabbergasted if we beat any of them. Our offense is awesome, but has been known to go to sleep for a bit too, and we haven’t even really played a good team yet. The schedule has been favorable to allow both parts of our team to grow as the season progresses, which we were in need of. Let’s take it game by game, and if we can take MSU, Penn State, and Iowa, and hang tough with OSU, then I’ll happily eat my words. But, they have a ton to prove after 4-5 of medicore to poor football seasons.
Because we probably won't
….score 40 against teams like PSU, OSU, Iowa, or Wisconsin. Because defense wins championships. Because it goes against Michigan Defense tradition. Pick one; any of these reasons is good enough!
Sorry…some may call me an Eeyore, but let’s be realistic. If the offense can’t score 40 against a fairly lousy Notre Dame team, what makes you think we will score 40 against decent teams? Don’t be fooled like we were last year by this team! It is a better team than last year, but they have a long way to go on defense, and the offense still seems prone to snoozing especially against decent teams. 63 points against a very, very crappy BGSU team is not a realistic gauge of offensive firepower. It was ONE very impressive feat, but not necessarily a trend. If we can do it against Iowa, Wisconsin, or OSU, I’ll change my mind. Blowing out Bowling Green is fine, but barely winning against UMass is unforgivable.
Be patient! U of M is not quite there yet…..but it will be. Next year, we will be legit; the year after that, we could contend for the Championship. But this year, we may not be ranked in the Top 25 when all is said and done. Sorry, I would love to be wrong, but after three very miserable seasons, I can’t let myself give into the hype yet.
I don't like it either, but the numbers don't lie
to contend for, let alone win the Big Ten conference title, history shows that you don’t “need” a nepalm offense scoring 40+ points per game. What you do need are two things. And it’s about defense:
1. A dominant rushing defense.
and
2. A good to great scoring defense.
The teams that “get” this have been Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa and Wisconsin in recent years. Michigan has not had it since 2006 season.
I’m not saying Michigan’s current coaches “don’t get this”. But I AM saying they “don’t got it” (yet). Maybe in 1 or 2 years with solid defensive recruiting this will change.
That all said, I do think Michigan is (finally) on the right path offensively (installation, recruiting, player retention) and will be an absolute nightmare to deal with in coming years in the Big Ten conference. No lead will satisfy. So it’s possible that Big Ten defenses in coming years will have to become better still in order to cope. May we live in interesting times.
Go Blue!
by markusr2007 on Sep 29, 2010 11:48 AM CDT up reply actions
Great Points!
Our Defensive Line is much improved from last year, but our Secondary is young, inexperienced, and in general, pretty crappy. Other teams might not be able to beat us by only throwing on us, but it they will be able to stay in the game. If that is the case, the other team really only needs a few big plays or for someone to have a great game, and they will likely win. Our “D” isn’t good enough to withstand an air assault AND someone who is having a great game. We can one or the other, but not both. Add to the fact that we have no kicking game, and perhaps a turnover or two against us, and it all adds up to a loss. The “Bend, Don’t Break” D has to go at some point, but it is somewhat understandable why we currently use that defensive scheme (inexperienced/young secondary). We need to switch to an SEC-type of D at some point. I could easily imagine that as our offense and defense improves (which they will), we would dominate any team out there. But our defense needs to be a major (and intimidating) factor. We are decent against the run, lousy against the pass, and need to establish more blitzing/sacks/TO/Tackles for a loss, and overall, just “meaner” attitude.
Don’t drink the Kool-Aid quite yet. I root for Michigan (Alum Class’99) with every fiber of my essence to the point where if they lose, I am grumpy well into the Monday following the game (bad habit, I know). They’ll be back, but they aren’t there yet. I just want the losses to be closer this year, and I think that they will be in most games where we lose. Next year, we need some of those losses to be “wins,” and I think that we are track for that. But, unless things radically change and the Defense becomes “unreal,” there won’t be a Big Ten Championship this year. This team should make it to a decent bowl and be able to win; in reality, they should finish the year around 22nd-24th, which would be a nice improvement. Next year, probably they should jump up to Top 15, and the following year Top 5, barring serious injury. Get a kicking game and a more experienced Secondary and we’ll talk Championships.
Get something straight...
This is a team that hasn’t had a winning season in two years, that hadn’t won a road game since 2008, that hasn’t had an offense like this… ever. If you want to bitch about the D giving up 23 points per game and go on endlessly with cliches and put the ever-popular “inexcusable” tag on a win, then suit yourself, but holy god this whole “I can’t give into the hype” bullshit is just unbelievable at this point, what hype? What unreasonable expectations are being expressed? There aren’t any. The offense has been nothing short of phenomenal, the D has struggled at times and come up big at times. Michigan is showing signs of life for the first time in years and you’re going to lecture us on cliche’s and Michigan tradition. Save your lectures for people who enjoy lectures. We’re all well versed in tradition round these parts thanks. I don’t see anyone talking championships here, but rather you throwing around “inexcusable” way too often. After the last two years you should…. CHEER this team. They’re playing their tails off.
And Markus, with all due respect the only stat I remotely care about is the one that says 4-0. Furthermore, would you care to show me Wisconsin or Iowa’s Big Ten titles from the past five years? Oh that’s right they have none. Matter of fact, Wisconsin hasn’t won one since 1999 (when we beat them by the by). Here’s a safe prediction, teams that win the Big Ten title tend to be pretty solid on both sides of the ball… what a stunner. Are we championship quality on both sides of the ball? No. But we DAMN sure are championship quality on the offense right here and right now. That’s a quantum leap from 2008 and 2009.
Nobody here had any delusional idea about the D heading into the season, it was the highlight and major concern of every breakdown each of us wrote. Of course nobody here could’ve ever predicted the offense would be playing this well in all aspects either. That changes things, this offense changes expectations because in and of itself it gives this Michigan squad a shot in every game. Every… single… game. The defense, which WE ALL KNEW WOULD BE ROUGH, has played well enough for us to win so far.
The simple fact is that poor defense or not, this is a team capable of winning any football game on the schedule now, that’s not something we could possibly have said at any point in the last two years. Be excited. Like I said this is a different, and all-together better football team than 2009. That’s it that’s all. If you can’t see that on the field you need to watch some more football. If you’re worried about the D and titles right now, you haven’t paid much attention to all that’s gone on in the past two years.
I’ll look forward to you telling us that “well we beat them last year too, I still can’t buy in” if we happen to take care of IU on Saturday. Meanwhile, I’ll go ahead and keep enjoying the way this team plays and works and keep looking forward to the next Saturday.
GO BLUE! http://www.maizenbrew.com/
I hope you're right!
I would say “put down the coffee,” but I think you are far too gone for that recommendation! Whoa, brother! Hold on!
I did say that they are improved, but it would be silly to say that the only thing that matters is that they are 4-0 right now. You have to look at “how” they are winning and “whom” they are playing against too before you go into ranting and raving about how great they are on offense or defense. You sound like a Notre Dame fan! from days of yore (half my family graduated from ND…so I know what this sounds like: “We’re awesome because we crushed Navy,” and then they would lose to USC or BC)
I agree with you that the offense has the most potential I have seen in my 34 years of existence, and that they will get better. The defense has played well enough. But who have we beaten in your estimation to warrant such an anger-driven response to those of us who think it is best to temper Michigan’s team with some objectivity? UConn? ND? A ranked FBS UMass? BGSU? I would politely argue that we won’t know much about this team until after the MSU game, as we will very likely beat IU, and MSU’s defense is suspect as well. You are right: wins are better than losses. Where was the offense against an increasingly lousy ND team? Will we be able to rack up 500-700 yards against an Iowa, Penn St., or OSU? Will the Prevent D be enough to win? I answer “no” to the last two questions, but I could be wrong. In fact, I hope to be wrong. As long as we can hang tough with these types of teams, and not give up like we did at times last year, I’ll be satisfied with that.
Unfortunately, I have paid enough attention over the past several seasons. The last two seasons under Carr were enough to give me pause, and RRod’s first two seasons were a disaster. We have seemed to have turned a corner and have improved, and the kids are playing with more determination. I don’t see where you feel we disagree other than overall expectations for this season, and perhaps, not even that. Sorry if you feel like this is cliche, but four years of getting my excitement up for this team and getting burned causes me to have to pause and look at it from a different angle.
And, based on your angry response, I suppose that I am very lucky that technology still hasn’t allowed for people to jump through their computer screens and strangle people! Sheesh! We’re both (evidently) big fans, and I hope that you find the rest of the season entertaining.
Recruiting
Look at all the major scouting services and top ‘whatever’ HS recruits. Then, look where they are committing. The answer: NOT MICHIGAN. It matters.
If Mich goes at least 8-4, the recruiting cycle may ramp up once again. The rich get richer, the poor…
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