FanPost

Michigan in control of their own destiny?

Nope.  But the eternal optimist in me saw that State lost this weekend and began to wonder if an appearance in the Big10 title game was again a possibility for the Wolverines.  A short glimpse of the Big Ten Conference Football Divisional Tiebreaker page found here reveals the following:

The following procedure will determine the representative from each division in the event of a tie:

 

  1. If two teams are tied, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative
  2. If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 7 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.
    1. The records of the three tied teams will be compared against each other
    2. The records of the three tied teams will be compared within their division
    3. The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5, and 6)
    4. The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents;
    5. The highest ranked team in the first Bowl Championship Series Poll following the completion of Big Ten regular season conference play shall be the representative in the Big Ten Championship Game, unless the two highest ranked tied teams are ranked within one spot of each other in the BCS poll. In this case, the head-to-head results of the top two ranked tied teams shall determine the representative in the Big Ten Championship
    6. The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative
    7. The representative will be chosen by random draw.

First, the worst best case: M wins out, as does MSU.  Result: Nebraska is out of the picture with 2 conference losses, and MSU goes to the title game via the two-team tiebreaker.

Second, the best best case: M wins out, Sparty lays an egg against Iowa (because they seem to do this with some regularity).  Result: M heads to the title game as the lone team with only a single conference loss.  

Per the rules above, things play out in a relatively crazy fashion if you go very far beyond either of these two scenarios (i.e. three teams tied with two conference losses).  However, there is an interesting possibility that everyone knew could someday happen when the Big10 moved to 12 teams.  

CRAZY WORLD-ENDING PARADOX CASE: M playing Ohio twice in the same season.  Sorry, but it will take a miracle beyond miracles to make that happen.  What is that miracle, you ask?  Let me tell you:

M wins out so we hand Ohio their 3rd conference loss AND Sparty tanks it AND Ohio beats Penn State AND the Badgers beat Penn State but somehow manage to lose to 2 of the 3 to Purdue  (lol jk), Minnesota (Wisco becomes Iowa for a day), and Illinois (ZOOK FTW) AND Penn State loses to Nebraska.  Now there is a tie for the best conference record in the Southeast division which leads us to declare Ohio the winner of said division and we play them AGAIN, THIS TIME FOR THE CONFERENCE TITLE.  

This plays out because:

(1) - Wisconsin collapses a la Michigan 2010 for a 4-4 Big10 record

(2) - Penn State and Ohio each have 3 conference losses

(3) - Ohio beat Pen State in their head-to-head matchup

This scenario is exceptionally unlikely (duh) but only because Ron Zook punts on 3rd down from his opponent's 15 yard line and Wisconsin is not Michigan from 2010.  But I must say I have seen things that seem just as ridiculous as this come to fruition in the past (UConn in a BCS bowl last year with 4 losses)

CONCLUSION: The only thing you care about is Sparty losing to Iowa so Hokemania can continue.

Any opinions expressed in Fanposts or Fanshots are not the opinions of Maize n Brew. Peruse at your own risk.

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