Michigan in control of their own destiny?
Nope. But the eternal optimist in me saw that State lost this weekend and began to wonder if an appearance in the Big10 title game was again a possibility for the Wolverines. A short glimpse of the Big Ten Conference Football Divisional Tiebreaker page found here reveals the following:
The following procedure will determine the representative from each division in the event of a tie:
- If two teams are tied, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative
- If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 7 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.
- The records of the three tied teams will be compared against each other
- The records of the three tied teams will be compared within their division
- The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5, and 6)
- The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents;
- The highest ranked team in the first Bowl Championship Series Poll following the completion of Big Ten regular season conference play shall be the representative in the Big Ten Championship Game, unless the two highest ranked tied teams are ranked within one spot of each other in the BCS poll. In this case, the head-to-head results of the top two ranked tied teams shall determine the representative in the Big Ten Championship
- The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative
- The representative will be chosen by random draw.
First, the worst best case: M wins out, as does MSU. Result: Nebraska is out of the picture with 2 conference losses, and MSU goes to the title game via the two-team tiebreaker.
Second, the best best case: M wins out, Sparty lays an egg against Iowa (because they seem to do this with some regularity). Result: M heads to the title game as the lone team with only a single conference loss.
Per the rules above, things play out in a relatively crazy fashion if you go very far beyond either of these two scenarios (i.e. three teams tied with two conference losses). However, there is an interesting possibility that everyone knew could someday happen when the Big10 moved to 12 teams.
CRAZY WORLD-ENDING PARADOX CASE: M playing Ohio twice in the same season. Sorry, but it will take a miracle beyond miracles to make that happen. What is that miracle, you ask? Let me tell you:
M wins out so we hand Ohio their 3rd conference loss AND Sparty tanks it AND Ohio beats Penn State AND the Badgers beat Penn State but somehow manage to lose to 2 of the 3 to
Purdue(lol jk), Minnesota (Wisco becomes Iowa for a day), and Illinois (ZOOK FTW) AND Penn State loses to Nebraska. Now there is a tie for the best conference record in the Southeast division which leads us to declare Ohio the winner of said division and we play them AGAIN, THIS TIME FOR THE CONFERENCE TITLE.
This plays out because:
(1) - Wisconsin collapses a la Michigan 2010 for a 4-4 Big10 record
(2) - Penn State and Ohio each have 3 conference losses
(3) - Ohio beat Pen State in their head-to-head matchup
This scenario is exceptionally unlikely (duh) but only because Ron Zook punts on 3rd down from his opponent's 15 yard line and Wisconsin is not Michigan from 2010. But I must say I have seen things that seem just as ridiculous as this come to fruition in the past (UConn in a BCS bowl last year with 4 losses)
CONCLUSION: The only thing you care about is Sparty losing to Iowa so Hokemania can continue.
Any opinions expressed in Fanposts or Fanshots are not the opinions of Maize n Brew. Peruse at your own risk.
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I think it will be very tough for Michigan to win out. They’re @ Iowa this week, @ Illinois next week, then two home games to finish the year against Nebraska and the other school. The other school has been playing better I think, I though Illinois and Wisconsin would beat them. And Nebraska, well Im not to sure on Nebraska yet. They’re and iffy team but if we can score a couple quick touchdowns to start the game then I think it’ll be over quick. But it should be a good game. Iowa always plays Michigan tough at home, and I dont think we’ve beaten in Iowa in over 3 years. Illinois will go one of two ways, a blow out by either team (I can see Michigan blowing them out more than I can see them blowing us out, although to be honest I haven’t been paying much attention to them this year), or a tight game that gets decided at the end. I dont see a repeat of last year happening simply because our defense is 100 times better this year.
But I really dont see MSU or Nebraska winning out either. I think Northwestern will beat State(some might say I’m crazy.. All I’ll say is we’ll see). And Nebraska has two tough away games at Penn State then at Michigan. But we’ll see, should be an exciting finish to see who goes for the Big Ten Championship.
Does anyone think we could play the school down south twice this year??
not so fast
Don’t forget that Sparty has to play NW at NW for Persa’s last game. NW has a decent run D and if you keep Sparty throwing, you’ve got a good shot at victory
The mere hiring of Coach Hoke has sent Pryor and Tressel packing...
by DrBogue on Nov 1, 2011 5:56 AM CDT via iPhone app reply actions
Sparty throwing
can equal disaster (Nebraska), but I think that Northwestern’s secondary is terrible enough that it won’t matter. Persa is a game changer, but I think they play him similarly to how they played Denard (he can’t run if he’s got a broken neck, am I right?) and NW goes down – I think Iowa has more dimensions to their offense and State won’t be able to blitz all day and get away with it there.
I believe that Michigan football will not merely endure: it will prevail.

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