Prediction Thread
by Beauford on Aug 24, 2011 11:02 AM CDT
in Michigan Football
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PrintWith only a few days left until football, I think it's about it time that we make some ill-advised predictions based on flimsy evidence that mostly has to do with preconceived notions of teams that Michigan will face this year. Western Michigan sucks right? Wait do they? No seriously, I'm asking.
So Dave and I were talking the other day - OK FINE, we were emailing the other day, and I said to Dave: "Dave - what do you think Michigan is going to do this year, like really?" and Dave said "Well, I think they're going to play football!" Oh how we laughed! And then I hit Dave with a pillow, then we talked about boys until we fell asleep.
That's not actually how it went down. I actually said "hey Dave - give me some predictions by noon today because I'm going to post a prediction thread" then I didn't post that thread until a few days later. It's a good thing he made that arbitrary deadline that I set!
Beauford's Season Predictions
Western Michigan:
Quite literally everything I know about Western Michigan comes from Remember Bo's preview. This does not bode well for this particular section, because here's what Remember Bo knows about Western Michigan:
Western is a big school somewhere in the southwest part of Michigan, I think. They've got a good nursing program, so I hear, and Grand Rapids is pretty decent on weekends, especially at the end of summer, because you can get cider and, uh, I guess have fun? They have a football team...
Ok, so nursing program, might be fun in the fall, and a football team that they um, have. In depth. Hard hitting. Gravitas. Those are words I do not use to describe that portion of Bo's preview. I'm having a bit of fun here, it's actually very in depth, and a good read. These guys return 8 starters from offense last year, which will actually give our fledgling defense a pretty nice test. I think this one is closer than the previous few season openers. Actually, the last time we met Western, this happened:
It's going to be a long time before that's not awesome. I do think Michigan wins this one, but again, closer than it appears.
Notre Dame:
Another excellent preview by Remember Bo here. This is the first night game in Michigan history, which you totally did not know because you live under a rock. Notre Dame is good this year. I don't think they're so good as to have this not be close, but remember that Michigan got very fortunate last year to cause "ow my eye" to become something of an Notre Dame meme. As I mentioned in my 1000 foot view, Michigan tends to lose to Notre Dame in various painful ways when Michigan has half a doughnut's chance in Charlie Weis's locker to be good, so I actually won't even be mad if we lose this game.
Nah, I ain't mad
As I also said in the preview, this is an out-and-out lie. I will indeed be mad. Maybe even mad enough to take to the keyboard, which is always an adventure. New and creative ways to say "fire them all?" I've got it. In any case, Michigan might lose this game, and I am convincing myself that by losing to Notre Dame, Michigan is actually restoring some semblance of order by which they will rattle through the next ten games to glory.
Michigan loses against Notre Dame in a new, painful fashion.
Team by team, and Dave's picks after the jump...
Eastern Michigan
Mike Hart coaches at Eastern Michigan these days. Did you know that? I do not think it matters. Michigan will crush Eastern Michigan. I don't even have a fancy graphic to put here, so look at this:
Apparently, this is Crush. She is an American Gladiator, the first google-image that appears when you put in "crush" and she is terrifying.
San Diego State
San Diego State offers the same kind of challenge that Western Michigan does. They have an experienced team returning that will probably put up points. Michigan is not in the place to take any team lightly, and if they do here they will lose. I don't think they will, not with Brady Hoke having just come from there, emotions, etc. In the end, a focused Michigan team will be too much for San Diego State.
Minnesota
Minnesota returns a defense that was worse than Michigan's last year. Michigan's gonna go ahead and keep that jug.
At Northwestern
The first road game for Michigan comes with a side of purple, and like all first road games, shouldn't be taken lightly. Pat Fitzgerald has some mojo going up there in Chicago, which is to say that Northwestern is not the doormat team they used to be. QB Dan Persa is coming off of Achilles surgery, and early observers have, erm, observed the NU offensive leader limping in practice. Pat Fitzgerald has a different take:
"I think he's doing great. Your limp could be somebody else's pimp walk. It just depends on how you look at it."
The Purple have 9 returning starters on offense, and 7 starters on defense. Dan Persa - who should be ready for the Sept 3 opener - is now a senior and looking to build off a season during which he set a Big Ten single-season record for completion percentage (.735). This will be a test, and Michigan loses a close one.
At Michigan State
With Michigan State's woes at offensive line, I think Michigan comes out after a loss against Northwestern and beats Sparty at home. During their scrimmage, the defense dominated the offense. I really do believe that Borges and company will score points, and I do no think that Michigan State has the firepower this year to compete. Michigan wins in a high-scoring game.
Purdue
Danny, what do you think about your starting quarterback's implications in the Miami scandal?
Danny - do you have any options behind Robert Marve should he prove to be ineligible in any way?
Michigan wins this one, Marve or no Marve.
At Iowa
This is going to be very, very close. Iowa is breaking in a new quarterback, but seems to always hang tough at home unless they're facing Northwestern, at which point origami couldn't fold faster. With the Rhabdo "scandal," if you want to call it that, and numerous off-field distractions, I don't think this year is going to be a year where we all look at each other after the season and say "how did Iowa win 10 games?" Michigan's been so close against Iowa these past few years, this is the year they break through.
At Illinois
There is no doubt that Illinois remembers that game from last year during which eleventybillion points were scored, and will be ready for revenge. Quarterback Nathan Schilenhousenberger (or whatever) returns for another year of picking up infuriating 3rd and 9's, and I just kind of think Michigan drops this one.
Nebraska
Nebraska is probably better than we are this year. If Denard and Martinez are both healthy, this should be a very, very fun game to watch. I'm going to give Michigan the edge in a close game, and even then only because it's at home.
Ohio State
We win. Much more on this later.
So, that puts my predictions at 9-3, which sounds pretty, um, bold. But that's what the preseason is for! Leave your predictions, as detailed as you want, in the comments. Here are Dave's:
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FWIW
WMU — W
ND — L
EMU — W
SDSU — W
@NU — W
@MSU — L
PUR — W
@IOWA - W- W
@ILL -
NEB — L
OSU — L
8-4 (5-3)
This is probably my best-case scenario — losses to San Diego State, Northwestern or Iowa wouldn’t be that surprising.
I tweet here: @thewhitetiger16
I blog here: The Wolverine Blog
I contribute here: BT Powerhouse
ND will be better? They beat a tired unmotivated SC team, an overrated Utah and Miami down the stretch and they have a qb who hasn’t separated himself despite being a senior. Didn’t they lose their best running back?
Illinois with our OL vs their DL w/o Liuget? Not sure if they can stop us, and I think Nathan could be headed for a soph slump? Not sneaking up on anyone this year.
NW – their defense was as bad as ours last year..and they dont have a new scheme, coaching staff, commitment to defense, or big recruits to make it better.
I think we are capable of one more stop than NW and ILL..which could be enough to win. I gotta see Ohio play…and Nebraska is good if Taylor Martinez doesn’t go all Forcier on them again this year. W/o him, is it a different game? What’s the over/under on how many games he gets suspended for this season?
Predictions from Misery(MO) with percentage chance I think we win
WMU — W 73%
ND — W 50.7%
EMU — W 99.9%
SDSU — W 71%
MN -- W 70%
@NU — L 49%
@MSU — W 55%
PUR — W 77%
@IOWA – W 55%
@ILL — W 67%(I think this is Zook’s last year, if the AD has a replacement in mind already)
NEB — L 42%
OSU — L 37%
9-3 (5-3)
I think we’ll end up at 7-5 or 8-4 though with a win in a pathetic bowl game(although Michigan usually ends up unranked against a top 15 SEC/PAC12 opponent so we may lose it).
WMU- Win. Little explanation needed.
ND- Loss. ND is going to the BCS this year. It sickens me, but it’s how it is.
EMU- Win.
SDSU- Win. This was a lot scarier before their Receiver corps were decimated.
Minny- Win. Minnesota is going to be bad this year. Not as bad, but bad.
@jNW- Win. Denard scores a 93 yard touchdown, mark it down.
@MSU- Win. Sparty can’t outscore Blue this time.
Pur- Win. Danny Hope is going down in flames.
@Iowa- Loss. Kinnick is where pretty good teams go to die (MSU last year).
@ Ill- Loss. Illinois gets overlooked in the Nebraska build up and beat M by 14.
Neb- Win. Martinez is done for the year at this point and the Nebraska offense manages to put 13 points on the board. Michigan scores twenty eight.
OSU- Win. Demons are slain, angels sing, OSU fans drink heavily despite not giving a damn for the whole state.
9-3, streaks are over for OSU and MSU and hopefully just beginning for the good guys.
Working backwards
You can’t make predictions about wins and losses without making a prediction about whether the defense will regress to the mean (a good thing), and whether the offense will adapt to what Borges wants (or alternatively whether Borges will adapt to what the offense can do). My take is that Borges will run plenty of zone blocking, spread style sets, and that Denard will throw fewer INT’s, and more deep bombs for scores than pundits give him credit for. Also, Maddison is a good enough DC to get our defense back to average and give us legit clock management options, while our special teams will win us a game or two.
That out of the way, my preditions in reverse.
OSU – Win. A healthy Denard, a dead coach walking, and “the clock” get it done.
NEB – Loss. A close game, but the Huskers just prove too tough.
ILL – Win. Zook will need a marque win to have any chance to keep his job, but Scheelhaase will have been concussed by a PSU linebacker the week prior.
IOWA – Loss. It’s a close game, but Denard gets dinged and Devin can’t pull a Tate.
PUR – Loss. Classic letdown loss.
MSU – Win. The DL crushes MSU’s shitty OL, and Cousin’s finds out what smeeling salts are for, while Troy redefines the Wolfolk name.
NU – Win. Persa’s good, but the rest of the team is bad. NW’s second best win last year was a a toss up between a 1 point win over MN and a 3 point win over IN? This won’t be close.
MN – Win.
SDSU – Win. Hoke and Borges have their playbook.
EMU – Win.
ND – Win. A close game, but I paid too much money for a ticket for us to lose.
WMU – Win. A few growing pains, but the Wolverines pull away in the second half, to a giant collective sigh from the alumni base.
9-3 and the outback bowl.
For every complex problem, there is an answer that is simple, easy to understand, and wrong.
Predictions
WMU- W
ND- L
EMU-W
SDSU-W
MIN-W
NW-W
MSU-W
PUR-W
IOWA-W
ILL-L
NEB-L
OSU-W
You guys will beat Purdue
At the rate we’re going, I will be quarterbacking that game personally, and that’s not a plus.
A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance
HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boilermaker Blog
If you're playing quarterback
does that mean you blew out your acl already?
Maize n Brew
Because Football is Better with Beer
by Maize n Brew Dave on Aug 25, 2011 8:02 AM CDT up reply actions
I genuinely feel bad for you guys
Rob Henry goes down with a torn ACL? Angry Purdue Knee-hating God strikes again.
Vastly? Probably not.
Significantly? Definitely.
I tweet here: @thewhitetiger16
I blog here: The Wolverine Blog
I contribute here: BT Powerhouse
No discussion on Jerry Kill improving Minnesota?
Yeah sure it’s his first year, but right now he gets to use Brewster’s recruits, and actually knows how to coach and stuff. Horton was able to get them a few wins once he took over last year, because their players really weren’t the problem. Kill is used to working with few quality resources, and look at what he did at SIU and NIU.
As for the predictions beating MSU, well, I’ve already consumed entirely too much kool-aid, so I’ll just say good luck, and I can’t wait for the game.
"The open threads on game days are like fevered dreams: Everyone is hammered and then shit gets burned." - Truffle Shuffle
by The Ghost of John Hannah on Aug 25, 2011 12:00 PM CDT reply actions
Like what I'm seeing, but pessimistic
WMU — W
ND — L
EMU — W
SDSU — W
@NU — W
@MSU — L
PUR — W
@IOWA – L
@ILL — W
NEB — L
OSU — L
7-5 for the season. I hope the 9-3 guys are right and I’m wrong…
WMU — Gimme (W)
ND — Toss up (W)
EMU — Gimme (W)
SDSU — Gimme (W)
@NU — Probably Win
@MSU — Gimme (W)
PUR — Gimme (W)
@IOWA – Toss up (L)
@ILL — Probably Win
NEB — Probably Loss
OSU — Toss up (W)
If we lose all three toss ups we only go 7-5, win them all and we’re 11-1. More likely we win two of three and go 10-2.
MSU and NW are both overrated this year. Persa’s still not 100% and after him, there’s no one. MSU’s lost Greg Jones et al. And neither team had the big wins last year that you would expect from the hype they’re getting. I think Michigan wins both of these.
The underrated opponent this year will be SDSU. I’m worried that they have just as much of our playbook as we do of theirs, and they have more experience executing it. This will be close, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they pulled the upset.
If Michigan beats MSU and NW, then the tossup games before facing Nebraska will be ND, SDSU, Iowa, and Illinois. These are all pretty close to 50-50 for me so I say we win two and drop two. The good news is that means we have at most one division loss heading into the closing stretch.
At that point, it all depends on how healthy Martinez and company are after their first bruising year in the Big Ten. If they’re pretty beat up, Michigan might be able to pull this out. I’ll pick it as a loss for now, but I’m hoping for a close game either way. I don’t see us beating OSU yet in the closer though. Too much talent differential still.
My picks:
WMU – W 88%
ND – L 50%
EMU – W 98%
SDSU – W 54% (W/L could be flipped with ND)
Minny – W 80%
NU – W 70%
MSU – W 65%
Purdue – W 75%
Iowa – L 48%
Illinois – W 58% (W/L could be flipped with Iowa)
Nebraska - L 45%
OSU – L 33%
8-2 going into the Nebraska game (a guy can hope) before losing the division title to them and finishing out 8-4.
Two things
First, Crush is apparently a scary hot chick.
Second, maybe it’s better to make predictions like this. Let’s break the schedule into easy, moderate, hard groups.
Easy: WMU, EMU, MN, Purdue.
Prediction: 4-0. WMU will be a harder gimmie than average, but we should still win easily.
Moderate: SDSU, NU, IL, Iowa
Prediction: 3-1. Any one of these teams might beat us, but if we are focused and healthy, we should have the edge in all these games.
Hard: ND, MSU, Neb, OSU
Prediction: 2-2. All of these are question marks, but 3 of the 4 are at home, and the 4th is against a team we have a special clock reserved for. A losing record against these 4 should be hard to swallow with those advantages.
Final: 9-3. With an 8-4 or 10-2 as real possiblilities.
For every complex problem, there is an answer that is simple, easy to understand, and wrong.
I'll take a stab
WMU- Win
ND- Loss
EMU- Win
SDSU- Loss
Minny- Win
NU- Loss
MSU- Win
Purdue- Win
Iowa- Win
Nebraska- Win
osu- Win
I think there will be some growing pains early in this season as they adjust to new schemes on both sides of the ball. I think a lot of people are underrating SDSU. Their only losses were in very close games and they put a scare into TCU.
But I think Michigan will start to put it together midway through the year. I think they’ll go to EL and come out with a big win and that will put the season on the fast track. Denard will begin to hit his stride, and the defensive line will come together.
Nebraska will be a tough loss at home for a team that will be playing for a BCS Bowl. Pelini will have a good game plan for Denard, and the team will lose some momentum, but they will come back stronger than ever the week after.
osu may be more talented, but they will be trotting out a rookie head coach and quarterback against Greg Mattison. I think Michigan pulls this one out.
That puts us at 8-4, 6-2 in the Big Ten.
GO CUSE, BLUE, AND EAGLES!
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