Why is Michigan Being Punished for 12 Defensive Points?
This post could alternatively be titled "Beauford Contradicts Himself Again." In a post on Tuesday, I wrote this:
Obviously, the defensive scores were nice. Jake Ryan's play to force that first INT was a special play. It's hard to analyze these plays as much more than flukes, however.
Which is something that I now disagree with. SCM has contributed mightily to this post, and it was a discussion with him, during which he disagreed with this statement, that I have generally come around to another line of thinking. The spirit of my original thinking, and the spirit of many of those in the MSM (AHEM Bob Davie), is that the Michigan performance is somehow lessened by having two defensive scores that skewed the results. This is bullshit. I kind of hedge away from that when I go on to state that a 2-0 turnover margin (Ok fine, 3-0 when you count the center-exchange-fumble) is sustainable, but I want to make my position perfectly clear.
The team, namely the defense, played pretty darn well last week. To simply chalk up those turnovers to some kind of "luck" is a discredit to the defense and the plays they made. When a defense works hard, gets in the right position, and has some athletes go out and make a play, the expectation should be that they get a turnover. This isn't a fluke, this is expected of a defense. Under Rodriguez, anything good that happened to the defense was either self-inflicted by the offense, or the product of chance. I'm not saying this defense is all-world, but those two turnovers (I'm not counting the serendipitous center-fumble) were forced turnovers that happened as a result of some fantastic individual plays.
The first INT by Herron was the result of Jake Ryan crashing through the line, beating a double team, and tipping the ball as it leaves Carder's hands. That play was a result of Ryan making superior effort, and Herron taking it the rest of the way. The Carder fumble was caused by Kovacs laying the most beautiful hit that a Michigan player has made in 4 years. Again, Herron was there to make the play.
When a defense gets turnovers from things like the QB just dropping the ball, or a center-snap-over-the-head Yakety Sax type deal, then maybe their flukey, and maybe you can't count them when you're evaluating the overall performance of a team. But when turnovers are forced like they were on Saturday, that seems - to use a new favorite word of mine, apparently - sustainable. The touchdowns, sure, you can't expect those to happen every game. But this defense played well enough, and made enough plays to be rewarded with turnovers. To chalk it up to anything else but (gasp) good defense is selling them short.
Meanwhile, Notre Dame has no discernable starting Quarterback, and a defense that allowed USF to go up and down the field on them. Somehow, they are perceived as the more stable team...why? Because their defense didn't score points? Because they lost the "right way?" Make no mistake here, had those two turnovers not gone for scores, the Michigan offense would have come out and if future events were any indication, they probably would have gotten points. It's not as if this is a 10-10 game if Michigan doesn't score those points defensively. To say that, somehow, the fact that the Michigan defense scored 12 points (not counting special teams) is a weakness is selling this team, and the defensive effort last Saturday, short. Hopefully Notre Dame thinks this way too.
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Huzzah!
I couldn’t agree more with you on almost all of this. The prevailing wisdom that somehow we’re “lucking” our way to a decent defensive performance in this game after years of putrid play doesn’t take into account things like a new defensive coordinator straight from one of the best professional defenses in the NFL, or even something as simple as a regression to a mean. In fact, the idea that we’re bad this year just because we were bad last year is a little insulting to the players who have put in all the time and effort over the past 6 months to learn yet another defensive scheme, their 4th in 5 years?
The two relevant turnovers were forced turnovers, not ones that just happened to fall into their laps. And from what I remember of the game, the offense was driving with the intention of scoring points when the game was called, and at the time, they were leading by 24 (or 12 for those of you who still want to stick your head in the sand and don’t want to count the defensive TD’s).
The fact is, while we didn’t get to see a lot of the team Saturday, what we did see started slowly (as most teams do the first game of the year) and only got better as the afternoon progressed.
Not so fast...
Conventional logic would say that whenever a defense outscores an opposing team, you have a recipe for success. However, many people who watched the game were quite aware of both the coverage schemes and the mistakes made by players. Without adequate pressure put onto the quarterback in our base sets, the receivers found holes in the zones and Carder was able to the put the ball where it needed to go. That, and WMU’s running game exposed the same mental mistakes that shot us in the foot last year, such as linebackers not flowing to the ball and sealing the edges and defensive linemen neglecting their gap duties.
However, I think these people who watched the game are pulling stats to simply support their position. First of all, no team in the nation will have every player play perfect football on every snap… Not even the national champion. With that being said, observe the defensive formations on WMU’s first, scripted, no-huddle drive. Our defense was not expecting no-huddle, and therefore, was out of position for the majority of the snaps. But in addition to that, both corners (and when they put the nickel in he was 6 yards off) were playing 12 yards off the receivers in drop zones and the linebackers dropped in the peculiar manner of turning and running to the specified location. With such soft coverage, it’s no wonder why Carder could find open receivers easily when not pressured.
As our players fell into the groove, the corners started to play up. Boundary played press and Cover played 6 off which is the standard formation to blanket both deep and snag reads in cover zero. Combined with added blitz pressure, the pass defense looked dominant.
I must say, it was slightly disconcerting that we could not stop the run, even with all of the substitution going on in the first drive, but it was immensely satisfying to realize that our players made in-game adjustments that were able to eventually snuff out the WMU run offense. This team can only improve and we should not see any regression back to how they played on the first few snaps of the season. I’m looking forward to a strong performance on Saturday.
USF
didnt exactly go up and down the field on ND. Didnt they have a total of 254yds or something like that?
The mere hiring of Coach Hoke has sent Pryor and Tressel packing...
by DrBogue on Sep 8, 2011 6:41 AM CDT via iPhone app reply actions
It's Notre Dame...
…I’m allowed some creative license…
"Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats."
-H.L. Mencken
http://maizenbrew.com
BJ Daniels
You’re forgetting that this is BJ Daniels…
Imagine Sheridan putting up 254 yards against ND. Then you have a valid comparison. BJ Daniels is terrible.
The majority of ND’s yards came, as someone posted below, against a prevent defense. Watch an every snap youtube video and you’ll see for yourself. I still don’t think Michigan’s D is enough to contain ND to less than 20 points but I believe they, along with the O, are good enough to keep them below 30 and ND’s defense is so poor against a dynamic attack that we should do well. They lost to every non-cupcake on their schedule last year.
Hmmmm...
Notre Dame’s QB’s threw for 391 yards against a quality BCS defense.
Irish held USF to 254 total yards (3.5 yards per play).
Michigan held Western to 279 yards (5.0 yards per play) in three quarters.
Please discuss!
Sky rockets in flight.
Well...
1. Denard Robinson.
2. Carder is a much better quarterback than Christ or Reese, and Michigan neutralized him after the first two drives.
3. Wolfolk was out most of the game, and he’ll be back. Flyod won’t be as productive.
4. Taylor Lewan > Manti T’eo
5. Hoke will personally eat all the Lucky Charms within a 500 mile radius.
For every complex problem, there is an answer that is simple, easy to understand, and wrong.
by MosherJordan on Sep 8, 2011 10:12 AM CDT up reply actions
Come on...
1. Not pertinent to the discussion
2. You spelled both QB’s names wrong, won’t comment.
3. No one on ND is concerned with Wolfolk.
4. What is this…I don’t even…
5. You are right.
Sky rockets in flight.
by Eric Murtaugh on Sep 8, 2011 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions
whoa...
There was only 1 run play during the final 2 drives, so 174 yards of Rees’s 296 came in 2 drives, all multiple receiver sets, in the fourth quarter vs a prevent defense. He isn’t a Joe Montana, he’s only slightly better than Nate Montana.
I think calling USF a quality defense though is a stretch..this is a defense that gave up 500 yards THROUGH THE AIR to Cincinnati last season.
Oh...
USF wasn’t playing prevent defense the entire time Rees was in the game. So what if they threw the ball a lot or if a lot of the yards came on two drives?
If USF isn’t a quality defense, what does that make Michigan’s?
Sky rockets in flight.
by Eric Murtaugh on Sep 8, 2011 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions
you're right....
they weren’t in prevent the entire time he played, but the last two drives both in the 4th quarter)…when Notre Dame got 14 points and 175 yards….they were.
Are you absolutely sure they were in prevent defense?
Or are you just saying that because USF had a lead in the 4th quarter and that’s the position a lot of people default to whenever a team passes for a lot of yards.
Anyway, I’m not really sure what your point is, other than to bash Rees and call him “slightly better than Nate Montana.”
Rees threw for 140 yards in the 3rd quarter versus 148 yards in the 4th quarter. He was moving the ball through the air no matter what USF tried to do.
Explain that away.
Sky rockets in flight.
by Eric Murtaugh on Sep 8, 2011 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions
How bout this....
-5 turnovers (3 inside the redzone)
-73 penalty yards (including back to back 15 yard facemask penalties on one USF scoring drive)
-0 points in the first half
and all of that in front of a home crowd
"Questioning Cutler's toughness is like questioning whether China has a lot of people"
-Michael Rosenberg, SI
by Joeb'n777 on Sep 8, 2011 10:55 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
They did make a ton of mistakes, that is for sure
Sky rockets in flight.
by Eric Murtaugh on Sep 8, 2011 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions
What Im getting at is that...
The amount of yards the offense wracks up is meaningless if they turn the ball over more time than they score.
And you cant say that USF’s offense didnt play well. They put up 16 points while NOT turning the ball over and more or less drove it right down ND’s throat in the 4th to basically put the game out of reach. It may not have been flashy or spectacular the way their offense played, but they did what they needed to do to get the W
"Questioning Cutler's toughness is like questioning whether China has a lot of people"
-Michael Rosenberg, SI
What are we arguing about here?
The author stated that USF drove up and down the field on ND. They most definitely did not.
ND shot itself in the foot far too many times. It’s not likely to happen to that degree again. I was pointing out that despite “no discernible starting QB” the offense was moving the ball with ease.
Who is bringing up USF’s offense??? I didn’t say that they played bad.
This entire post and my comment was about Michigan’s defense, which no one has even talked about, but instead are trying to chip away at ND and USF.
Sky rockets in flight.
by Eric Murtaugh on Sep 8, 2011 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Okay, UMs Defense
keep in mind that most realistic UM fans aren’t looking for a “great” defense right now…we’re just looking for improvement over last year. Which is to say, if we were 110th last year, anything better than 70th is acceptable. I think that based upon what brief glimpses we saw last Saturday, the fundamentals are there…tackling was better, no one was grossly out of position (a GERG point of contention), and they were able to limit the big plays we were warned that a QB like Carder could have delivered. I don’t believe that last part, but that’s what WMU fans were saying for the last several weeks.
Am I satisfied with that defense? No. I’m I pleased with the apparent progress? Yes. Still lots of improvement to go, lots of time in the season. I’m still putting the o/u for wins at 7…over and I’m happy, under and I’m not happy.
I would agree with that
Sky rockets in flight.
by Eric Murtaugh on Sep 8, 2011 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Ok fine....
Notre Dame, a team that lost 5 turnovers while creating none and was unable to put any points on the board the entire first half (against a team picked to be above average in the weakest BCS conference in the nation; will be playing against a Michigan defense that created 3 turnovers and showed the ability to get consistent pressure on the QB (once they started using the blitz) against a formidable Western Michigan team.
Add in the fact that ND will be coming off a tough home loss (losses like that can demoralize a team i.e. Va. Tech 2010 following the Boise State loss), they are visiting the Big House for its first night game in history (do you really think that the crowd won’t be factor?), and the fact that ND had to pull out its entire offense in order to make it close (as opposed to Michigan who barely had to show anything on offense because their defense was busy scoring) therefore allowing the coaches to better gameplan against it.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not predicting a shut out by any means, but I also don’t think Michigans defense will be as bad as your insenuating. I think if they can hold them to 20 points (not unrealistic in my opinion) that is enough to get a W.
"Questioning Cutler's toughness is like questioning whether China has a lot of people"
-Michael Rosenberg, SI
by Joeb'n777 on Sep 8, 2011 3:38 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Look at it this way...
Just because Michigan created a few turnovers (really only two) and scored off of them doesn’t necessarily mean the are improved. In the same vein, just because ND turned the ball over a lot, doesn’t mean the offense wasn’t playing really well.
I would agree that UM’s defense looked a LITTLE better against WMU, but they literally had nowhere to go but up. And as I pointed out in my original post, WMU’s offensive stats were very solid. It’s really, really difficult to watch WMU put up almost 300 yards and 5.0 YPP in three quarters and expect anyone outside Ann Arbor to think that UM’s defense is improved. Like I said, there were some good things to take away, but until you dominate a MAC offense, no one is going to be impressed.
That you’re disparaging USF, like they are some cupcake, and calling Western Michigan “formidable” is pretty telling. I don’t think UM’s defense will be as bad as last year, but yes I still don’t think they are very good…and until there’s any evidence otherwise (re: causing a couple turnovers but letting a MAC team move the ball doesn’t count) I will still think that.
Sky rockets in flight.
by Eric Murtaugh on Sep 8, 2011 7:19 PM CDT up reply actions
Who cares how many yards they got, the bottom line is they only allowed 10 points
me talking about USF and Western the way I did is because when you look at the expectations of the Notre Dame offense coming into this season they have been pretty hyped. Given the amount of hype they have received the matchup agaisnt USF theoretically shouldn’t have been an incredibly tough matchup. Conversly for a unit as terrible as Michigans defense was last year Westerns offense was a good matchup for their first game and yes they are a relatively formidable offense (its not like they were playing New Mexico or San Jose State).
Like I said, I’m not saying Michigan’s D is gonna be some top 10 unit. However I don’t think its unrealistic to think they could be ranked between 50 and 75 as well as hold ND to 20 pts.
"Questioning Cutler's toughness is like questioning whether China has a lot of people"
-Michael Rosenberg, SI
by Joeb'n777 on Sep 8, 2011 8:12 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Yards matter to a certain degree
Because it shows that the offense is able to move the ball and make plays. The loss to USF hurt a lot, but it would have been worse if ND wasn’t moving the ball and that was the primary reason they didn’t score in the first half. In some ways maybe the game with USF shouldn’t have been close, but I wouldn’t sell them short. And as far as ND being hyped offensively speaking, they still gained over 500 yards, had good QB numbers despite the turnovers, a 100-yard rusher without running the ball in the second half, and the superstar receiver had a great game. There were a lot of positives to take away outside of the mental errors.
I do agree that UM played okay against Western’s offense (which is one of the better in the MAC). But being a 50-75th best defense probably doesn’t correspond to holding Notre Dame to 20 points. I think a lot of people would argue USF’s defense is better than Michigan’s, and despite the turnover-palooza, the Irish got 20 in that game.
Sky rockets in flight.
by Eric Murtaugh on Sep 9, 2011 7:16 AM CDT up reply actions
I'll mildly agree
about the comment about WMU being ‘formidable’….I almost did a spit-take with my coffee.
If QB pressures, Sacks and Forced fumbles are all just flukes then we should probably stop recording them as statistics
"Questioning Cutler's toughness is like questioning whether China has a lot of people"
-Michael Rosenberg, SI
by Joeb'n777 on Sep 8, 2011 9:31 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
It's not as if this is a 10-10 game if Michigan doesn't score those points defensively
Exactly! If Herron had just fallen to the ground after the pick and the fumble recovery, the expectation is probably still 6 points (/-3). The INT robbed Western of at least 3, and probably 7. So the defense created expected points (13) through forced turnovers. This was half the margin of victory, and was no fluke. The fact that Herron was able to find the endzone twice means that we got the best possible upside from the two turnovers (+21). That can’t be expected to be sustained, but at least in this game, we didn’t need it.
For every complex problem, there is an answer that is simple, easy to understand, and wrong.
How quickly we forget...
Best hit in four years? Try this: <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=04Nef39dFPE>.
Kovacs’s hit did more good, though.

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