FanPost

Will Michigan Land Jim Harbaugh?

Let's first acknowledge, as of this writing, that Brady Hoke is not fired yet. It's not looking good, though. After getting drubbed 23-16 by Maryland at home on senior day, and heading to Columbus where his Wolverines are 20-point underdogs to the Buckeyes, the writing appears to be on the wall in regards to Brady Hoke's time in Ann Arbor. That means Michigan will most likely fire Brady Hoke and have to seek a replacement. Oh, wait, you mean you haven't heard about this? Apparently it's been talked about quite a bit. (Settle down, you snarky snarks. I'm being sarcastic.)

Indeed, the Ann Arbor Torch and Pitchfork Company has seen their sales soar to new heights as of late, and all thanks to the tomfoolery going on in Michigan's athletic department. There's a chance (yes, the proverbial chance) that all of this negativity could go away with one swift, unilaterally unifying move: hiring Jim Harbaugh. Oh, you haven't heard about him? Well, he seems to be quite popular. And for a lot of Michigan fans, Harbaugh isn't just best choice, he's the only choice.

But will it actually happen? There are a lot of mitigating factors that go into not only the firing of Brady Hoke, as certain as it seems, but also the hiring of Jim Harbaugh away from his current job with the San Francisco 49ers. So here's a general, albeit semi-long-winded rundown of the reasons why Jim Harbaugh might end up in Ann Arbor and why, if we're being truly honest with ourselves, he might not.

The stars seem to be aligning. This is not like 2010, where Harbaugh had his sights clearly set on the NFL and Michigan's athletic department, especially former athletic director Dave Brandon, felt they had an acceptable alternative in Brady Hoke. While fans clamored for Harbaugh (or Les Miles), former players and football alumni campaigned for Hoke. He was clearly their No. 1 choice, as John U. Bacon writes in "Three and Out," a semi-biographical memoir about the three years and last days of Rich Rodriguez in Ann Arbor. So when Brandon admits that Hoke was really the only candidate he pursued, you can probably find that as credible, as much as it might infuriate or frustrate Michigan fans to know, or at least guess, that the best candidate was never made a serious offer.

Meanwhile, in this go around, Harbaugh has achieved his dream of coaching in the NFL, and having coached at its highest level. Despite losing in Super Bowl XLVII to his brother, John, Harbaugh has made that journey to the mountaintop, one which many coaches, even some of history's best, never get the opportunity to make. And strangely, despite all this incredible success for a man who has been coaching in the league a mere four years, Harbaugh seems like he is on the way out of San Francisco. Normally I wouldn't lend much credence to these types of rumors, but it really says something when not just one or two, but several reports outlets put their reputation on the line by saying Jim Harbaugh is not getting along with his boss, is not getting along with his own players, and is definitely not coming back. Yes, this could all be part of the time-honored, ever-present NFL "smoke screen," but what about connected former Niner and all-NFL wide receiver Jerry Rice's comments? Probably nothing, right?

It has been stated that Jim Harbaugh "thrives in chaos," so maybe the rumors are deliberate and entirely self-inflicted by the 49ers organization, in a bizarre attempt to somehow motivate either Harbaugh to coach in an environment he relishes or the players to adopt an "us versus the world" mentality. (You might need your tin-foil hats for that one.) For whatever it's worth, Niners Nation is convinced that Harbaugh isn't leaving, on the grounds that he won't depart until he wins a Super Bowl. (Some 49er fans do believe he'll eventually coach Michigan.) Despite Harbaugh's infamously competitive nature, however, I would hazard to guess that it would be even harder for Michigan to get Harbaugh after he's won a Super Bowl rather than before. The stars seem to be saying that if Jim Harbaugh is coming back to Michigan, he is coming now or never.

There is virtually no debate, or there won't be. Look again at 2010, when Rich Rodriguez was fired. There had been a significant portion of the Michigan fan base arguing that Rodriguez, despite his woes on defense, should have been granted a fourth year. This time, all but only the most Decatur-esque Michigan fans believe Brady Hoke should and will be fired. Even for that fringe, a lot of it depended on Hoke's ability to win out. With the defeat of Maryland in the books, that option is off the table, and so are the few people left on the Brady Hoke train.

Yet, as we have learned, athletic departments are not necessarily extensions of the team's fan base, and for Michigan that is doubly true. An athletic director that found himself constantly at odds with die-hards and season ticket holders, Dave Brandon was quick to dismiss any rumblings coming from the "plebes." He also filled his department with people who supported him and supported Hoke. Today, even though Brandon is gone, those people still remain, and while the Michigan fan base might be unanimous in what the correct course of action should be going forward, it's more like 50/50 for the athletic department and interim AD Jim Hackett.

We're hearing enough insider info that indicates that about half of the athletic department believes Hoke will be let go as soon as the season ends, regardless of when that will be. The other half, however, wants to see if Hoke can make a bowl game, and would push to retain him for one more year on the grounds that it is more important to search for a permanent replacement to athletic director. 6-6 has always been considered the program's floor, after all, even during the days of Bo Schembechler. And although Hoke has not gotten Michigan to even sniff a berth in the Big Ten championship (let alone the national championship), he is still technically a coach with a winning record.

As overextended as it admittedly is, the thinking here is that, if Hoke can pull off a miracle upset at Ohio State this Saturday, Michigan's athletic department might prefer to weather the storm with him for one more season until a new athletic director arrives who can be held accountable if the wrong decision is made, whereas an interim guy like Hackett is essentially playing with house money right now. However, were Hoke to fall to 5-7 after yet another loss to Urban Meyer, which is looking increasingly likely by the day, the 50 percent of Michigan's "Powers that Be" gauging Hoke's future on a bowl berth will evaporate. On its most barest measurement of going .500 versus not going .500, Michigan will have fallen below the mark. There will be no debate on what to do next.

There is also practically no debate on who to hire. It's Jim Harbaugh. It has always been Jim Harbaugh. It always will be Jim Harbaugh. Though the man may have his faults, this is as close to a no-brainer as any athletic director could possibly hope for. In 2010, Dave Brandon, with his ear attuned to the words of the football alumni, believed that he did not need to go after Harbaugh either because 1) it was possibly not worth the effort, 2) Harbaugh did not seem too interested at the time, and 3) he had an option he genuinely believed was as good or better.

You look at the situation today, and who is the obvious choice after Jim Harbaugh? It's not as obvious. You could make a case for an older guy like Les Miles (he's 61), who is currently receiving grumbles from the LSU contingent after being shut out by Bret Bielema's Razorbacks. You could argue for Mississippi State's Dan Mullen, who is sure to be college football's hottest coaching commodity after building the Bulldogs into a team that at one time sat atop the rankings at No. 1, and who ultimately fell because Mississippi State, for all their gumpton, will always have inherent program disadvantages against the likes of Alabama and Ohio State. Finally, and this would hardly be the popular option (none other than Harbaugh is), you could see Michigan hiring Greg Schiano, who they offered the job to in 2007 and who currently has no commitments -- since he's, you know, out of work.

As much as everything seems to be setting up for Jim Harbaugh to come back to Ann Arbor (would he really say no?), Michigan fans should probably not get their hopes up. Things don't often go Michigan's way even when everyone thinks they will. As infuriating as it is to watch Ohio State nab Urban Meyer and go on to great success without skipping a beat, we on the other hand don't often get what we want. We can muse and think about how epic a showdown between Harbaugh and Meyer would be. We can imagine Harbaugh's intensely competitive spirit -- which made him enormous in his days as Michigan's quarterback as well as the coach for both Stanford and San Francisco -- and see how it (finally) gives the team the focus it needs to compete with Ohio State and Michigan State.

We can imagine these things, but that doesn't mean they will happen. Harbaugh will have other suitors, like the Raiders and the Jets, and perhaps the biggest obstacle of all, though you might not think so -- his wife, Sarah, does not want to leave the Bay area. (She is originally from the Midwest.) Harbaugh would also have to likely take a pay-cut in the event he considers returning to Ann Arbor. If San Francisco really intends to keep him, they would easily match any offer Michigan could make, which I imagine would be (at most) somewhere around $4,000,000 -- Urban Meyer's salary and nearly twice what Hoke makes. This, like the situation with Harbaugh's wife, is possibly more significant than people realize, especially since Michigan has not had a great history of shelling out cash to get top coaches, although there are occasional exceptions.

So, ultimately, the decision will be Harbaugh's, more than Michigan's. Still, the athletic department can and must go after the clearest Plan A guy they have ever had, a former quarterback who beat Ohio State, transformed Stanford (another academically haughty institution) into a consistent Top 10 college football program, and led an NFL team to a Super Bowl. Jim Harbaugh is all about challenges, and some say that's why he went to the NFL, because winning a Super Bowl, for any football player or coach, is the greatest of all feats. But what greater challenge is there than restoring your alma mater to the pinnacle of college football and carving out your legacy among the greatest coaches of both Michigan and the sport itself? Jim Harbaugh might be just the guy who could do it.

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