Nope.  But the eternal optimist in me saw that State lost this weekend and began to wonder if an appearance in the Big10 title game was again a possibility for the Wolverines.  A short glimpse of the Big Ten Conference Football Divisional Tiebreaker page found here reveals the following:

The following procedure will determine the representative from each division in the event of a tie:

 

1. If two teams are tied, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative
2. If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 7 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.
   1. The records of the three tied teams will be compared against each other
   2. The records of the three tied teams will be compared within their division
   3. The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5, and 6)
   4. The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents;
   5. The highest ranked team in the first Bowl Championship Series Poll following the completion of Big Ten regular season conference play shall be the representative in the Big Ten Championship Game, unless the two highest ranked tied teams are ranked within one spot of each other in the BCS poll. In this case, the head-to-head results of the top two ranked tied teams shall determine the representative in the Big Ten Championship
   6. The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative
   7. The representative will be chosen by random draw.

First, the worst best case: M wins out, as does MSU.  Result: Nebraska is out of the picture with 2 conference losses, and MSU goes to the title game via the two-team tiebreaker.

Second, the best best case: M wins out, Sparty lays an egg against Iowa (because they seem to do this with some regularity).  Result: M heads to the title game as the lone team with only a single conference loss.  

Per the rules above, things play out in a relatively crazy fashion if you go very far beyond either of these two scenarios (i.e. three teams tied with two conference losses).  However, there is an interesting possibility that everyone knew could someday happen when the Big10 moved to 12 teams.  

CRAZY WORLD-ENDING PARADOX CASE: M playing Ohio twice in the same season.  Sorry, but it will take a miracle beyond miracles to make that happen.  What is that miracle, you ask?  Let me tell you:

M wins out so we hand Ohio their 3rd conference loss AND Sparty tanks it AND Ohio beats Penn State AND the Badgers beat Penn State but somehow manage to lose to 2 of the 3 to Purdue  (lol jk), Minnesota (Wisco becomes Iowa for a day), and Illinois (ZOOK FTW) AND Penn State loses to Nebraska.  Now there is a tie for the best conference record in the Southeast division which leads us to declare Ohio the winner of said division and we play them AGAIN, THIS TIME FOR THE CONFERENCE TITLE.  

This plays out because:

(1) - Wisconsin collapses a la Michigan 2010 for a 4-4 Big10 record

(2) - Penn State and Ohio each have 3 conference losses

(3) - Ohio beat Pen State in their head-to-head matchup

This scenario is exceptionally unlikely (duh) but only because Ron Zook punts on 3rd down from his opponent's 15 yard line and Wisconsin is not Michigan from 2010.  But I must say I have seen things that seem just as ridiculous as this come to fruition in the past (UConn in a BCS bowl last year with 4 losses)

CONCLUSION: The only thing you care about is Sparty losing to Iowa so Hokemania can continue.

Am I the only one that has noticed the impressive play of CB J.T. Floyd? Outside of Jordan Kovacs, he's probably been the most consistent player on the defensive side of the ball. Floyd played a major role in the biggest win of the season thus far against Notre Dame when he was given the assignment of slowing down WR Michael Floyd in the 2nd half, in which he did. Honestly, Floyd has been playing at this type of consistency over the past two seasons and I think he deserve some recognition for it. I read and agree with all of the much deserved acclaim about freshman CB Blake Countess lately, but Floyd is the anchor when it comes to coverage in the secondary. Dare I say, 'almost' shutdown!

I am sitting at my computer posting on the Internet about the Michigan vs Minnesota game, and it is not even over.  Well, technically the game is not over, but with Michigan having a commanding 51-0 lead, the game is over in any way that matters.  All that is left is the wrap up by the second team players and the coaches screaming in the Minnesota locker room.  Yes, you heard that right!  Michigan has finally found the moxie to blow out a Big Ten opponent!

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   I am happy to see such a good start for the Maize and Blue. I had a feeling that Hoke would turn out to be good hire and so far he's justifying that hunch of mine. However, this good start does not mean I'm willing to bury my head in the sand when it comes to the obvious weaknesses we still have.

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http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/26283066/31997745

he would be a HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE pull for Michigan

huger than huge

Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue.  Go Blue. 

WOW!

It is funny how all of the emotions of that game can be summed up in three letters.  I believe that game was the biggest roller coaster ride I have ever experienced.  Cedar Point and Six Flags were just put to shame.  I am so glad that Michigan came out on top in the end because losing that game would have been just disastrous, after the amazing comeback that Michigan had made.

I don't want to get ahead of myself here.  I have seen Michigan beat Notre Dame in the last two seasons as well, only to be disappointed at the end of the season.   The thing is, I cannot see this team in the same way that I looked at teams coached by RichRod.  They have a different attitude.  They are winning in a different way.

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Usually I don't shill. Wait. Yes. Yes, usually I do. But this is extra special. Desmond Howard and Lloyd Carr are working with SI, the Heisman Committee, and Nissan to promote all three. They'll be appearing, talking and signing autographs tomorrow September 10, 2011 before the Michigan Notre Dame Game. Figured you guys would want to know about it. Here are the details - Dave

"SPORTS ILLUSTRATED HEISMAN TOUR PRESENTED BY NISSAN"

Meet UM football legends on game day!

• Michigan’s 1991 Heisman Trophy winner Desmond Howard, who will be honored for his 2010 induction into the College Football Hall of Fame during halftime of that night’s game, will appear from 2:00-3:30 p.m., participating in both an "SI Chalk Talk" session from 2:00-2:30 p.m. and an autograph session from 2:30-3:30 p.m.
• 2011 College Football Hall of Fame inductee Lloyd Carr, who led Michigan to the 1997 National Championship during his coaching regime, will participate in an "SI Chalk Talk" session with from 4:30-5:00 p.m., followed by an autograph session from 5:00-6:00 p.m.

WHEN: SATURDAY, September 10, 2011 – noon until 8:00 p.m.

WHERE:        Located across from Michigan Stadium, at the intersection of E. Stadium Blvd. and S. Main Street. Look for the big Nissan/Sports Illustrated helium blimp flying overhead!

[front-paged for obvious reasons - B2]

I'm not a football coach by any stretch, I'm merely an obsessed fan.  To wit: I watched the M-WMU game 3 times before Labor Day with constant rewinding and slow-motioning to obsess and analyze.  On top of that I'm pretty sure I've read every Smart Football post there is.  So that's where I'm coming from.  If you've got any objections/better interpretations, feel free to let me know.  Just learnin' the game like the rest of y'all.

BlueSeoul did a nice scouting report, but I thought it'd be fun to do a Smart Football-style focus on the Brian Kelly offense.  I'll try to avoid too much redundancy and maintain interest, seeing as Chris from SF has in fact already done one and didn't think there was much to see.  It may be that none of this is special to Kelly, but hopefully it will at least be representative of what Michigan will see on the field Saturday night.

As Chris says, Kelly bases out of a 4 wide set and his base passes take those receivers vertical out of their breaks:

The basic things you notice are that a) The receivers divide the field into fourths, thus making it difficult for either one or even two deep safeties to defend all four; b) The receivers burst off the line immediately with no fakes or stutter-steps, which forces the defensive backs immediately into retreat position to respect the deep pass; and, most importantly, c) The receivers give away no information -- they might go deep or break short, or break inside or outside. (Also the running back serves as a nice checkdown as he has an option route and can basically find the open grass.)

Kelly combos this base 4 verts passing game with an abiding commitment to the running game.  That is to say he's definitely not an Airraid type who'll throw it 40-50 times per game by design.  Which is just as well, given that ND has a very talented back in Cierre Wood.  Without disparaging M's backs or aping Fred Jackson, I'd say he's a bigger/stronger Mike Shaw and a serious challenge for scraping linebackers.  

BK's approach doesn't seem to be that different from other spread attacks in terms of how he selects plays.  The spread helps him count who's in the box and figure out whether to run or pass from there.  Given his typical four wide set, he'll see some number of defenders aligned with the primary responsibility of stopping the run.  In a vanilla defensive set, all the offensive coordinator has to do is count the number of defenders and compare that to his number of blockers.  

If his QB isn't a running threat, the defense needs a minimum of 6 defenders to account for each blocker and the running back in a 4-wide set.  Fewer than that and the OC can give the go-ahead to run the ball knowing he's got a serious advantage in the box: the defensive coordinator does not have a player to fit in each gap to stop the run.  But 6 or more means he needs to give serious consideration to passing the ball.

Of course it's not at all in the defense's interest to supply such an easy read.  In the college game it's very common to see a safety "screw down" into the run fit just as the snap comes.  Alternatively, a defense can supply an additional run stopper from what's called the alley:

Alley defenders in particular are vulnerable to Kelly's attack because of the 4 Verts scheme.  Often one or more are responsible for both playing in the run fit and for walling off a potential vertical route until the receiver can be passed off to a safety.  If the dual priority alley defender can't get a clean run/pass read, he could very well end up defending neither.  On top of that, playing right over or just inside the receiver to cover the vertical threat makes it difficult to cover the run even if he does get a clean read.  Getting back in time to beat Cierre Wood to his gap is a tall order indeed.  They can however help themselves by alignment:

Both USF alley defenders are right in position to wall off any vertical threat and play the run if necessary simply by alignment.  They each have enough depth to provide the angle necessary to play pass defense, but are not much wider than the far hip of the defensive end.  Just outside the box is maybe not as good as actually in it, but given their dual responsibilities both are covered as well as possible from this alignment.

Kelly--and most if not all spread-types for that matter--employ constraint plays in order to push these defenders farther from the box so as to open holes in the run game.  The most common (and certainly to Michigan fans) is pairing a bubble read with any hand-off from the shotgun:

The diagram is nice, but I'd point out that Kelly's alignment here is even more effective.  Assuming no counter type action from the running back, the play in this case would be run toward the nearside alley defender's gap that puts him in a serious bind given bubble action from his receiver.  Attack the run, get burned on the bubble.  Sit on the bubble, open a gap for Wood to run through.  Admiral Ackbar would know just how to describe this.

But wait, there's more.  Kelly also really likes to open up running lanes with draw and draw-read action:

Side note: this play (hilariously) got waived off thanks to a totally unnecessary Michael Floyd holding penalty...and this wasn't even close to the biggest gaffe of the evening.  Truly this was one of the Yakety Saxiest performances in recent ND history.  Definitely up there with anything Charlie Weis managed: a pick thrown in the endzone, a fumble returned for TD, a missed field goal, a muffed punt and Brian Kelly's face redefining crimson for the folks at Pantone made for the schadenfreudiest of evenings.  God bless, BK.

Anywho.  In this instance, it isn't technically an alley player being picked on thanks to TE Tyler Eifert's very narrow split off the tackle.  The linebacker in the box to the trips will however be in a run/pass bind as the play design nails his feet to the ground and leaves ND with effectively 5 in the box to block with their 5 run blockers:

As you can hopefully see (apologies for the screencap quality), the tackle to the trips has set for pass protect along with (as best I can tell) 3 of his linefriends.  One however has pulled from the trips-side to the boundary.  Meanwhile our buddy the trips-side backer seems confused indeed.  His feet and knees are locked, his torso is angled toward the TE while his head is watching the QB/RB interaction.  He very possibly has noticed that the guard to his side has pulled, perhaps with nefarious intent.

The problem is that the TE is going to take a vertical release.  Any fake or read on the backer means he'll be responsible for the TE unless he wants a TD pass over his head.  As a result, he goes nowhere and it's 5-on-5 in the box with only a defeated block or the safety coming up hard between Cierre Wood and 6 points:

As it happens, the right tackle did in fact get burned and Wood was forced to bounce the play outside.  But the pulling guard still got up through the initial hole with a solid angle on the playside linebacker.  The farside linebacker as expected has no chance to make any impact on the play.  At least he managed to hop backward a few steps to maintain his position with the vertical route of the TE, who even now is not blocking on the play.  Michael Floyd is blocking all the way and is about to initiate his very silly hold:

The G cuts the LB, Floyd (illegally) walls off the CB and it's Wood v. Safety.

Fake touchdown Notre Dame.  And look who's there to meet Wood in the end zone.  None other than the frozen not-caveman linebacker.  

Now, I'm not putting the blame on him for the defense's breakdown.  They lost the numbers game by play design and the playside safety did a poor job of reading and filling the run.  Whether or not Kelly has added a pass-run read of that linebacker a la Holgorsen I'm not entirely sure.  Given the effect of the fake off the draw, perhaps it's not even necessary.   This is one example of many variations that to me constitute a well designed offense that fits its base plays very effectively with numerous constraints that prevent the defense from getting numbers where they need them.  

Sure, there's nothing especially mind-blowingly cool about the set up without the draw-read, but the constraint theory of offense says that may be beside the point.  Which is: be as simple as you can without sacrificing the counters you need to keep running your base offense.  Kelly does as much and at ND he has a weapon at nearly every position.  It'll be interesting to see how Mattison counters given the youth of his defense.  Scheme and a talent advantage hid a lot of mistakes last week and they'll be without the latter in the Big House on Saturday.  

I have to admit that I was chomping at the bit to see what this Michigan team can do.  After all of the turmoil and debate over coaching changes, the time has finally come to see what we can expect from Brady Hoke and the Wolverines.  My anticipation of the upcoming Wolverines season has been greater than any time I could remember during the RichRod era. 

I am happy to say that I am pleased, with what I saw against Western Michigan.

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I'm a student at the Ross School of Business at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor. My classmates and I are in the process of raising money for the Make A Wish Foundation. As part of the fundraising efforts we're trying to Auction off a Game Worn #2 Michigan Football Away Jersey potentially worn by the Charles Woodson on ebay. The Auction and the fundraising effort ends in less than 18 hours, so bid now!