Efficiency margin is a way of telling which teams are better than others by looking at tempo-free margin of victory. The efficiency margin is points per possession minus opponent's points per possession. A big, positive efficiency margin (say 0.29 like Ohio State's, which would translate to an average of about a 20 point margin of victory over their average 69 possessions per game) is good and a negative efficiency margin is bad. The "adjusted" efficiency margin takes into account the opponent's average efficiency margin, so an individual game's adjusted efficiency would be (Team A's efficiency margin) + (Team B's average efficiency margin). This makes performances against good teams look better than an equal performance against a bad one. It also makes teams with harder schedules look better than teams with weaker ones. The game data is up to date.

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A few quick thoughts:

• Ohio State is far and away the class of the Big Ten. Every win they've had has been a resounding beatdown, and I'm willing to write of Brandon Paul's explosion a fluke. I think that they probably have the best chance of any team in the country to beat Kentucky in the NCAA Tournament.
• Michigan State is still a clear number two. Even though we beat them here in Ann Arbor, I think MSU has the best chance of anyone to unseat OSU for the Big Ten crown. I don't necessarily think it will be a sure loss for us in East Lansing (Zack Novak has Draymond Green's number, which is awesome), but a split against this good of a team isn't a bad thing.
• Man that loss to Iowa hurts. It was easily Michigan's worst performance in Big Ten play, and we'd be a game ahead in the standings if it didn't happen. The other "how in the world did that happen" game would be Penn State's dismantling of Purdue.
• Your darkhorse NCAA Tournament contender is... Minnesota? Seems weird, but the Gophers have weathered the loss of Trevor Mbakwe and their efficiency margin indicates that they are in good position for a second half turnaround. They have a tough remaining schedule though.
• Nebraska had a brutal stretch to open their Big Ten tenure. Wisconsin twice, Michigan State, Ohio State twice, and Indiana is rough. I guess it's baptism by fire, and Nebraska quickly learned what it's like to be in the best conference in college basketball.

#20 Michigan 64

Arkansas 66

Michigan followed up a thrilling home win over Michigan State with a trip out to SEC country for an unusual non-conference game in the midst of Big Ten play. Arkansas provided a unique challenge for the Wolverines with their up-tempo style and Michigan did not respond well. The Razorbacks ran out to a 29-10 lead before missing a shot from the field or from the free throw line (11-11 from the field and 3-3 from the line). It was a nightmare scenario for Michigan to start the game: the Wolverines were cold shooting the ball, a couple of quick turnovers forced by the Arkansas press led to easy buckets on the other end, and the Razorbacks literally could not miss. The sellout crowd was extremely loud and contributed to the lack of poise and composure from Michigan and the frenetic play on the court. Michigan was eventually able to control the tempo a bit and cut a 20 point deficit to 13 to enter halftime but Arkansas still scored an absurd 46 points in the first half (1.45 points per possession!). The second half went much better for the Wolverines, particularly on the defensive end. Arkansas was held to only 20 points (.68 points per possession) in the second half, but Michigan wasn't able to capitalize and still fell short on a missed three point attempt at the buzzer by Trey Burke.

I hate using cliches like "it was a tale of two halves" but the differences between the first half and the second half was striking.

First Half:

• Arkansas starts the game on a 34-14 run and doesn't miss a shot until the 9:52 mark. CBS missed the first few minutes of the game, but I'm not too torn up about it.
• Michigan fails to adapt to Arkansas's wild full-court press and turns it over five times in the first ten minutes of the game.
• The Razorbacks shoot an unreal 17-26 from the field (65.4%) and 4-7 from three (57.1%) for a ridiculous 73.1% effective field goal percentage.
• The deficit isn't cut to single digits for the rest of the half, but Michigan uses a late 5-1 run to keep the game within striking distance to enter halftime at 46-33.
• Zack Novak keeps Michigan in the game with key shooting: he leads the team with nine points on three made three point shots

Second Half:

• Arkansas is only able to score 20 points in this half and only makes seven shots from the field. It took them just over seven minutes to get to 20 points in the first half and they made seven shots in just over six minutes.
• Jordan Morgan scores 12 of his 16 points in the second half, doing most of the work in an early 10-0 run to pull Michigan within six of Arkansas.
• Michigan adjusts to Arkansas's press, limits the Razorbacks' opportunities in transition, and controls the tempo much better for the most part in the second half.
• The Wolverines close the game on a 16-5 run and Arkansas is only able to score seven points in the second half. To say that Michigan turned it around on defense would be an understatement. They looked like a completely different team on that end in the second half.
• Zack Novak makes a key three to make the score 62-60, but two buckets by Hunter Mickelson keeps Michigan at arm's length until a last-ditch heave by Burke goes in and out.

Four Factors:

Yikes. If Arkansas would have actually missed some shots early on, Michigan would have probably won pretty easily. That's why this game is so disappointing: Michigan played as badly as it could have played for about ten minutes and still almost won the game.

Player Recaps:

Trey Burke had a very inefficient day (13 points on 19 field goal attempts), looked out of sorts to start the game against the ball pressure from Arkansas, and still almost won the game with a shot that couldn't have been closer to going in. He finished with 13 points, 7 rebounds, and 6 assists and it looks like he's our best player. Zack Novak had the best game of any Wolverine -- 17 points on 6-9 shooting (5-7 on threes) was pretty good, and the very hard foul (to put it nicely) on B.J. Young made the whole state of Arkansas hate him -- but a few early, very frustrating turnovers led to easy layups. I mentioned that Jordan Morgan had a big impact in the second half and it was nice to see him have a good offensive day. Hopefully Burke looks to drop the ball off for more Morgan dunks when the defense collapses and hopefully Morgan gets rewarded more often for running the court so well. Stu Douglass, Evan Smotrycz, and Tim Hardaway Jr all shot poorly from the field (5-20) and all need to improve. Douglass needs to do better than 1-8 from three, Smotrycz is in a bizarre funk and seems to have lost all confidence, and Hardaway needs to stop shooting threes unless they're wide open and in rhythm. Those guys are key and Michigan can't afford these performances from them. Blake McLimans and Matt Vogrich played a little but didn't make an impact.

Looking Ahead:

In the grand scheme of things, this loss doesn't really matter too much. Arkansas isn't a great team, but this loss -- on the road, in a hostile environment, during Big Ten season -- won't look that bad down the line during the seeding process. It doesn't count for the Big Ten standings obviously, and Michigan is still tied in first place after this weekend. The away game at Purdue on Tuesday looms large; winning that one would enable Michigan to keep pace with Ohio State and Michigan State and will help assuage fears of how poorly Michigan has done on the road so far this year. This loss hurts because of how it went down -- the absolute blitzkrieg by Arkansas followed by a dogged comeback and a last second miss -- but it probably won't matter too much in the long run.

I'll post more formal thoughts on Michigan's thrilling 60-59 win over Michigan State tomorrow, but for now:

• TREY BURKE. 20 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocks and 2 steals. 8-11 (3-6) from the field. I think it's pretty obvious by now that Trey is our best player and he had a hell of a game.
• We were absolutely killed on the glass, but we did a very good job of keeping State off the free throw line and had a much better turnover rate than they did. Michigan also shot way better than MSU even though the threes weren't falling.
• Stu Douglass hit another key shot to beat Michigan State. I like him in the starting lineup during Smotrycz's slump. Evan had an up-and-down day, but Stu did a fantastic job on defense and made a few big jumpers.
• This was such a key win for our team: it was the fifth game in thirteen days and is starting a brutal stretch of the Big Ten schedule. This moves Michigan into a tie for first place and hopefully it gives the team some confidence heading into this upcoming killer stretch.
• TREY BURKE WAS AWESOME!!! So many key shots, excellent defense and a wily move to get Douglass open for that last shot.

Regardless of the circumstances, Michigan and Michigan State will always be a high-stakes, emotional game; Michigan is the Spartans' biggest rival and the feeling is reciprocated when the maize and blue and the green and white take the hardwood. These passionate rivalry games bring out the best in teams across the country, and this in-state rivalry is one of the better rivalry games year in and year out. Add in the elevated importance of this year's matchup -- both teams are ranked in the top twenty, State is at the top of the Big Ten standings and Michigan is only a half game back, and Michigan finally re-energized the rivalry by breaking a long losing streak with two wins over MSU last year -- and this game is only going to be better. I was in the stands for the UM-MSU game in Ann Arbor a year ago and it was easily the best college basketball atmosphere I've seen in Ann Arbor. With two better teams and more on the line this year, it should be an even better game in the Crisler Center this year.Michigan State has exceeded preseason expectations and is a very strong unit. Michigan keyed their second half turnaround with two wins against an overrated and mediocre Michigan State team last year, but the Spartans are much better now than they were a year ago.

Players to Watch:

Senior forward Draymond Green is the heart and soul of this team and his energy and leadership have been huge reasons for this teams' success (his team-leading 15.8 points and 10.1 rebounds per game haven't hurt). Green hasn't done particularly well against Michigan so far in his career (KJ pointed out that he's averaged only six points and four rebounds per game against UM, and Zack Novak's defense got the best of Green in Ann Arbor last year as Draymond was only 3-14 from the field), but his combination of size, uncanny passing ability, extremely aggressive rebounding and surprising three point proficiency makes him State's best player. Keith Appling is Michigan State's other go-to guy: he's done well playing out of position as he replaced Kalin Lucas at the point guard spot. Appling had two of his best non-conference performances against Duke and Florida State, but struggled for stretches early this year. He turned it on once Big Ten play started and has averaged over 17 points per game in Michigan State's five Big Ten games. Appling is a proficient scorer who gets to the rim and the free throw line well, but his outside shot hasn't been very good. The inside combination of Derrick Nix and Adreian Payne has replaced Delvon Roe well for State's frontcourt -- Nix lost a lot of weight and has become a much, much better player and Payne is a big body (6'10") inside to score around the basket and grab rebounds. Fifth-year transfer Brandon Wood has provided an ability to get to the lane and score from the perimeter, but he's a decent three point shooter (37.7%) who can knock them down with ease when left open. True freshmen Travis Trice and Branden Dawson have filled important roles for the Spartans -- Trice is a lethal shooter and a decent passer as the backup point guard and Dawson is an athletic former five star as a 6'6" forward -- and former walk-on Austin Thornton has provided valuable minutes for MSU.

Four Factors for Big Ten Play:

Michigan State is very good at crashing the glass, getting to the line, and converting 2 point field goals when they're on offense. Michigan's interior defense will need to play very well to slow down the Spartan offense and Michigan has actually played much better defense inside than outside for the entire year. Michigan State's defense isn't quite as good as their offense is, but they still do a very good job of challenging shots with their size across the board.

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The biggest question for Michigan's basketball program entering the season was at the point guard position. Darius Morris came out of nowhere a year ago to become one of the better point guards in the country and took his unparalleled size and passing ability to the NBA after the season finished. He was the only Wolverine from last year's surprising NCAA Tournament team to leave the program (as there weren't any seniors and he was the only early entrant to the NBA). Before his unanticipated departure, Morris was the star player for Michigan and he and the rest of the team collectively looked like a top ten unit entering this year. After he left, Michigan fell in the preseason projections and everyone wondered who could replace Morris's production.

Trey Burke was quickly singled out as the heir apparent to Morris; the three-star, true freshman point guard from Columbus was the only pure point guard on the roster. Seemingly every preseason preview of Michigan had this statement as the biggest question for the Wolverines: "Can Trey Burke fill in for Darius Morris without too much of a dropoff?" Burke, known more for being Jared Sullinger's high school teammate than for his actual playing prowess, had an illustrious high school career; he only lost a handful of games in his high school career, won an AAU championship at one point, and was Mr. Basketball as a senior. There was actually a little hype from the assorted national media types who saw Michigan's practice as the season approached, but not enough to allay concerns of how well he'd transition to college basketball.

The Big Ten looked to have a very strong point guard class and so far it has. Jordan Taylor was a consensus preseason All-American after a tempo-free dream season, but has regressed to the mean a bit and is no longer the ruthlessly efficient player he was a year ago. Despite hearing about how he's the best defender of all time in every broadcast, Aaron Craft is actually very good and incredibly annoying to face on that side of the court (in a Chris Kramer type of way). Tim Frazier and Keith Appling have stepped in admirably for two elite players, Talor Battle and Kalin Lucas respectively, and Frazier in particular has produced at an outstanding level. Flying under the radar are guys like Roy Devyn Marble, Lewis Jackson and Dave Sobolewski who are very good role players on Iowa, Purdue, and Northwestern. LSU transfer Bo Spencer is an unknown commodity for the most part, but he's easily the best player for the Nebraska Huskers. From top to bottom, there are a lot of excellent point guards in the Big Ten.

Then there's Trey Burke, the precocious scorer who's almost the polar opposite of Darius Morris. Morris was a bigger guard who bullied smaller defenders to get to the rim and whose elite passing ability made his teammates much better. Burke isn't as big as Morris and isn't the passer that he was, but Trey can shoot the ball far better than Darius ever could and isn't too bad at scoring in the paint either. We can reasonably say that Trey has at least filled the void left by Morris and it's not a stretch to think that Burke could actually be a better player than Morris was last year. Trey's been named the Big Ten Freshman of the Week three times so far this year (over Cody Zeller, the savior of Indiana basketball) and was once named Big Ten Co-Player of the Week. He's scored in double figures in all but two games and saved his most statistically impressive performances for when Michigan needed it the most: 17 points and 9 assists against Duke in Maui, 27 points in a narrow home win against Minnesota, and 19 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists to escape Northwestern. In one of his worst performances of the year, he almost notched a triple-double with 10 points, 8 assists and 7 rebounds against Indiana. Trey has allayed concerns over Michigan's point guard spot and he's played so well that I'm asking if he's the best point guard in the Big Ten.

Here's a brief statistical comparison with the rest of the Big Ten's point guards:

Analysis after the jump...

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Iowa 75

#13 Michigan 59

After emphatically beating Wisconsin on Sunday, it looked like Michigan just needed to survive Northwestern and Iowa to get to 5-1 in the Big Ten before facing a brutal six game stretch (Michigan State, @Arkansas, @Purdue, @Ohio State, Indiana, @Michigan State). Northwestern provided a much stiffer challenge than we thought they could and the Wolverines were lucky to come away with a win. Unfortunately that was not the case yesterday against Iowa as the Hawkeyes ran away with an easy home win against listless Michigan. It was Michigan's ugliest performance of the year; Iowa shot the ball, held onto the ball, rebounded and got to the line better than UM did. Despite shooting the ball poorly to start the game, Michigan stayed within a possession or two, but Iowa stretched the lead to 33-23 at halftime with Trey Burke on the bench. The Wolverines cut the deficit to six in the second half with a short run, and Iowa responded with a 7-0 run of their own (keyed by a questionable charge call on Zack Novak) to put the game out of reach.

I'll put it simply: it looked like Iowa was much better than Michigan. Between the total lack of production from the five position, ice cold shooting from the outside, and a bizarrely stagnant and anemic offense, Michigan has looked as bad as it's looked all year (this tied the Virginia game as Michigan's lowest points per possession output this year, but Virginia's defense is a top ten unit and Iowa's isn't even top-150). The defense wasn't much better: Iowa's PPP was the fifth-highest it's been all year and Matt Gatens, Aaron White and Roy Devyn Marble victimized Michigan all day. It was almost worse on an individual level. Tim Hardaway Jr was 2-13 from the field and missed all eight of his three point attempts. Jordan Morgan played for 27 minutes but only had one or two touches in the post and only attempted one field goal all game. Evan Smotrycz finished with zero points in 22 minutes. Trey Burke scored 19 points, but scored eleven of them with less than four minutes in the game (when it was out of reach) and sat for most of the first half with two fouls. Novak was the only Wolverine to have a pretty solid day -- 14 points (4-8 from three) and 8 rebounds (2 offensive) -- but he can't carry the team.

Four Factors:

Michigan was basically outplayed in every facet of this game by an inferior opponent. I don't really want to go much more in depth than this, but there's not that much more that can be said. Iowa was simply better than Michigan today. Moving on...

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