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It's More Heartwarming When You've Gone Undrafted

By straightbangin

You know, when you make the Pro Bowl.

You probably didn't hear about this because it is a fairly mundane, boring event that receives little publicity, but the NFL Draft was held over the weekend. As you likely also didn't hear, five inmates from that prison rec team down in Columbus got chosen in the first round and nine of them will be in the NFL next year, overall.

Michigan, meanwhile, chose to again set up shop on the moral high ground and thus, its players eschewed selection on the first day of the draft. On the second day, the humble and righteous Wolverines allowed themselves to potentially help NFL teams, though: Gabe Watson was selected with the tenth pick of the fourth round by the Arizona Cardinals; Jason Avant was selected with the twelfth pick of the fourth round by the Illadelph Iggles; and Tim Massaquoi was selected with the thirty-sixth pick of the seventh round by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The draft was a fitting microcosm of the two programs right now. The Columbus Maximum Security Prison and Home for the Mentally Challenged uses modern training techniques; makes recruits demonstrably better during the ten to twelve years that they spend serving their bids; employs an Olympic sprinter as the speed coach; and (not coincidentally) wins three Fiesta Bowls in four seasons. On the other hand, Michigan gets its guys ready to play by serving pizza and borrowing the neighbor's Bowflex machine; takes an everyone-is-special, hands-off approach to steadily improving its players (especially on defense); goes the cronyism route when staffing; and loses most of the important games that it plays. At the Ohio State joke of a University, Bobby Carpenter becomes faster, smarter, and better as time goes by; at Michigan, Prescott Burgess spends four years waiting to come into his own.

Here are some stats about Michigan football which one intrepid interneter found and posted on a message board:

  • UM has had almost exactly half the number of players drafted in the last 3 years that it did in the 3 previous drafts.
  • UM has had 4 first day picks, total, in the last 3 drafts. It had 10 in the previous 3 drafts.
  • UM was tied with OSU with the most players drafted from 2001-03 with 19. In the following three drafts, OSU has skyrocketed to 26 picks while UM has plummeted to 10.
  • UM had 3 first rounders and 2 second rounders in 2001. Over the next 5 years, UM has had 2 first rounders and 4 second rounders total.
  • In the last 3 drafts, UM ranks fifth in most players drafted in the Big Ten, behind OSU, Wisconsin, Purdue and Iowa. UM has had only one more player drafted than Michigan State, and only two more than Illinois.
  • UM has had one defensive lineman drafted the last 6 years, no defensive ends. Seven other B10 teams have had more than one d-lineman drafted. UM has produced as many d-linemen drafted in the last 6 years as Illinois, and one less that Northwestern. OSU has produced 7 in this span.
  • UM has not had a LB drafted in the last 3 years. OSU has had 4, Purdue, 3 and Iowa 2. UM has had only 2 LBs drafted in the last 6 years. OSU has had 7, Purdue 5, Wisconsin 4 and Northwestern 3.
  • Illinois has had more corners drafted in the last 6 years, 3, than UM, 2. OSU has had 4 in that span.
  • UM has had 2 o-linemen drafted the last 3 years. It had 4 the previous 3 years. OSU has had 5 the last 3 drafts. Northwestern, Illinois and Michigan State have all had the same amount of o-linemen drafted in the last 3 years as UM has.
  • UM has had a total of 3 defensive players drafted the last 3 years. This is only two better than Indiana and Minnesota, one better than Illinois, and ranks 8th in the B10. OSU has had 13, Purdue 10, Iowa 7, Penn State 4, Michigan State 4, Wisconsin 3.
  • UM has had a total of 7 defensive players drafted in the last 6 drafts. OSU has had 24, Purdue 14, Wisconsin 13, Penn State 10, and Iowa 9. MSU has had the same amount with 7. Northwestern has had 6.
  • Indiana has had a defensive end drafted in the last 6 years. UM has not.
Here're more stats:

UM players drafted in last 3 drafts: 10
1st round: 2
2nd round: 1
3rd round: 1
4th round: 3
5-7 rounds: 3

UM players drafted in previous 3 drafts (2001-03): 19
1st: 3
2nd: 5
3rd: 2
4th: 3
5-7: 6

Between 2001 and 2003, UM had 10 first-day picks; 13 in the top 4 rounds. From 2004-06, UM has had 4 first-day picks; 7 in first 4 rounds. A clear drop off.

Other Big Ten Teams:

Total picks from 2001-03:
UM: 19
OSU: 19
WIS: 16
PSU: 10
IA: 9
MSU: 9
Pur: 8
MN: 8
Ill: 8
NW: 6
Ind: 2

Total picks from 2004-06:
OSU: 26
WIS: 15
Pur: 14
IA: 12
UM: 10
PSU: 10
MSU: 9
NW: 6
MN: 6
Ill: 4
Ind: 3

First Round Picks from 2001-03:
PSU: 4
UM: 3
WIS: 3
OSU: 2
MSU: 2
NW: 1
MN: 1
IA: 1

First Round Picks from 2004-06:
OSU: 8
UM: 2
IA: 2
WIS: 2
NW: 1
MN: 1
PSU: 1

First Day Picks 2001-03:
UM: 10
PSU: 9
OSU: 7
WIS: 6
IA: 4
Pur: 3
MSU: 3
MN: 1
IND: 1
ILL: 1
NW: 1

First Day Picks 2004-06:
OSU: 17
IA: 7
WIS: 5
Pur: 5
UM: 4
NW: 2
PSU: 2
MSU: 1
MN: 1
IND: 1
ILL: 1

Defensive player drafted 2004-06:
OSU: 13
Pur: 10
IA: 7
MSU: 4
PSU: 4
UM: 3
WIS: 3
NW: 2
ILL: 2
MN: 1
Ind: 1

Defensive players drafted last 6 years:
OSU: 24
Pur: 14
Wis: 13
PSU: 10
IA: 9
UM: 7
MSU: 7
NW: 6
MN: 5
ILL: 3
Ind: 1

Defensive Linemen drafted last 6 years:
OSU: 7
WIS: 6
Pur: 5
MSU: 4
IA: 4
MN: 3
NW: 2
UM: 1
Ind: 1

So what can we conclude? Well to start, Michigan does not do a good job training its players to be more explosive, faster, and, therefore, more NFL-ready. While plenty of players from top programs whose careers are middling can get themselves into the NFL through strong post-season workouts, Michigan's cannot. The Wolverines just don't train in a way that lets them show up at the combine or an on-campus pro day and impress, well, anyone. Look at these forty times:

Michigan
Jason Avant: 4.8, 4.8
Tim Massaquoi: 4.84, 4.87
Pierre Woods: 4.78, 4.73
Adam Stenavich: 5.61, 5.62
Matt Lentz: 5.38, 5.38
Pat Massey: 5.09, 5.11

The Ohio State joke of a University
A.J. Hawk: 4.49, 4.42
Santonio Holmes: 4.34, 4.36
Bobby Carpenter: 4.64, 4.68
Nate Salley: 4.5, 4.56
Anthony Schlegel: 4.79, 4.76
Donte Whitner: 4.39, 4.37
Ashton Youbouty: 4.37, 4.35

I'm sorry, but that's pathetic. Michigan players can't run?

This also means that Michigan should probably change its training methods if it wants to continue to attract the best players. The trends would indicate that what might have worked in the past isn't working now. Michigan loses to OSU consistently; loses to Notre Dame consistently; loses bowl games consistently; and now, it appears, isn't developing players consistently. No one wants to play for a program that can't send players to the NFL.

Of course, Michigan has produced the third-most NFL players of any school, so the sky isn't necessarily falling. Maybe the past three years have just been bad senior classes. But maybe time is finally catching up with the Wolverines who aspire to be in the NFL, much as time caught up with the 7-5 team last season that was characterized by its slow and fat offensive linemen, slow linebackers, and slow secondary. "Injuries, injuries, injuries!" you cry? Yeah, they were horrible last season and likely cost UM a game or two. But there were also games won--against MSU? against PSU? again Iowa?--that could have and maybe should have gone the other way, so I'd imagine that things even out to some degree. When it comes to training, you can only reject change as competitors improve for so long.

And as Cato June has demonstrated, Michigan has the talent. It recruits players well. It just doesn't coach 'em up once they get to Michigan. And NFL scouts would agree--about a week ago, Bruce Feldman wrote:

5. Michigan defense: My hunch is that Wolverine fans didn't shed a tear to see Jim Herrmann, a former Michigan player and a guy who had been the longest-tenured assistant on the staff depart after 20 seasons. In truth, I get more e-mails from frustrated Michigan fans than any other. I can understand it to some degree. The program cranks out quality football players, many of whom seem to be more productive in the NFL than they actually were in college. That's a pretty rare turn for football players, but for whatever reason not with the Maize and Blue. "Consistently, this is the most underachieving program in the country," says one NFL scout. "Although FSU seems to be closing the gap a little."

The Wolverines have been loaded with talent (Gabe Watson, budding star Alan Branch, LaMarr Woodley among others), yet the defense allowed a school-record 279 points in 2004. On paper, you would've expected them to dominate up front last season. Instead, it ranked 36th in the nation in total defense (345.2) and 41st in run defense (137.3) in '05. Worse still, despite those kinds of studs up front, eight running backs gained 100 or more yards against the Wolverines last season and four games were lost when the opposing team scored on its last drive.

The emphasis is mine. How fucking weak is that? Michigan has players with NFL talent who lose too many games for bad reasons and don't get adequately trained. It's a pretty amazing accomplishment, really, to have NFL-caliber athletes who can't actually get drafted by the NFL because their game film is underwhelming and their training is so inadequate. Kudos to Lloyd for this.

I suppose one might argue that the talent really isn't that good or that things can't really be that bad if Michigan is still seen as a bunch of underachievers as opposed to a group that is just not talented. But I don't really buy into either of those ideas. With regard to the former: if you look at average-player ratings for the past five recruiting classes, Michigan is always in the top ten. Attrition, players not panning out--I get the reasons why the ratings can be misleading, but using a fairly standard metric, I think it's fair to conclude that Michigan has generally gotten players that are among the best in the country. So I can't imagine that this has just been a three-year run of deficient talent.

And with regard to the latter: things really can be that bad. When do coincidences become a trend? When does a program start to slide down the proverbially slippery slope and descend into full-on decline? As another interneter wrote:

This program has not been going well for a long time. Those problems were camoflouged (sic) by a watered down conference, thanks to Penn State's collapse, and a superman receiver, amongst other things. You want me and people like me to be positive. Let's get our asses into the National Championship hunt more than once every 10 years, at best. Let's learn how to play special teams and not act like it's a nuisance. Let's not talk about being a good running team but actually do it with some kind of consistency. Let's actually play great defense more than once a decade. To ignore all this doesn't make you a better fan. It makes you ignorant.