Yes please.
Over the past several weeks I've had two types of thoughts regarding our secondary: "our starters at the corners should be solid" and "holy @#%@# who's going to play safety and we can't even spell depth". Such are the vascillations of a cautiously excited/nervous fan, yay college football indeed.
For those of you that haven't yet read The Obscene Diaries of a Michigan Fan by Craig Ross, consider this your recommendation of the day. The genesis of this post comes from his examination on the difference between interceptions and fumbles, "are all turnovers created equal?" in which he examined 113 Michigan games:
Michigan record when even fumbles and more interceptions: 1-8 (11.1%)
Michigan record when even fumbles and fewer interceptions: 15-1 (93.75%)
Michigan record when even interceptions and more fumbles: 4-3 (57.1%)
Michigan record when even interceptions and fewer fumbles: 8-3 (72.7%)
For the moment I am left with the conclusion that an interception is a more consequential occurrence than a lost fumble [...]
Thankfully this particular passage was penned well before last year's fumble fest. In sitting there thinking about such breakdowns, I started to wonder if there was an appreciable difference between teams with defenses that were better at stopping the run vs those that ranked highly against the pass. Stats being stats and all I still found the following somewhat interesting.... with some obvious caveats:
1. Top 25 defenses in either category are, well, top 25 defenses... Michigan's D last year ranked 87th in pass defense and 50th in rush defense, which goes against the "trend" demonstrated here as you'll see in just a second. This is a complex way of saying, if your defense is all around bad, it doesn't much matter if it is "less bad" against the run.
2. This is not to suggest that a team can focus soley on one aspect and get away with it.
Statistics from the wonderfully detailed NCAA football statistics database.
2008 Pass Defense leaders: 180 wins vs 127 losses
Rank
Name
Games
Patt
Pcomp
Papct
Ydscmp
Int
Intpct
Yds
Ydsatt
TDs
Ydspgm
CM
Wins
Losses
Ties
1
Southern California
13
382
199
52.09
8.78
19
4.97
1747
4.57
6
134.38
0
12
1
0
2
South Carolina
13
328
189
57.62
10.95
14
4.27
2070
6.31
9
159.23
1
7
6
0
3
New Mexico St.
12
300
176
58.67
10.87
9
3.00
1913
6.38
14
159.42
0
3
9
0
4
Tennessee
12
332
186
56.02
10.35
17
5.12
1925
5.80
8
160.42
0
5
7
0
5
Northern Ill.
13
338
208
61.54
10.07
6
1.78
2094
6.20
13
161.08
1
6
7
0
6
Florida St.
13
342
175
51.17
12.06
9
2.63
2111
6.17
15
162.38
0
9
4
0
7
Miami (Fla.)
13
336
172
51.19
12.52
4
1.19
2153
6.41
15
165.62
1
7
6
0
8
UCLA
12
332
177
53.31
11.37
11
3.31
2012
6.06
19
167.67
0
4
8
0
9
Connecticut
13
368
196
53.26
11.16
18
4.89
2187
5.94
9
168.23
0
8
5
0
10
San Jose St.
12
356
187
52.53
10.93
16
4.49
2043
5.74
9
170.25
0
6
6
0
11
TCU
13
384
193
50.26
11.50
15
3.91
2219
5.78
8
170.69
0
11
2
0
12
Clemson
13
428
239
55.84
9.38
19
4.44
2243
5.24
14
172.54
0
7
6
0
12
Wake Forest
13
382
199
52.09
11.27
18
4.71
2243
5.87
15
172.54
0
8
5
0
14
Tulane
12
288
184
63.89
11.27
9
3.13
2074
7.20
18
172.83
0
2
10
0
15
Vanderbilt
13
362
193
53.31
11.78
20
5.52
2274
6.28
15
174.92
0
7
6
0
16
Virginia Tech
14
343
181
52.77
13.54
20
5.83
2450
7.14
12
175.00
1
10
4
0
17
Mississippi St.
12
324
169
52.16
12.54
8
2.47
2119
6.54
13
176.58
0
4
8
0
18
Boston College
14
435
244
56.09
10.15
26
5.98
2477
5.69
9
176.93
0
9
5
0
19
Auburn
12
369
199
53.93
10.78
11
2.98
2146
5.82
19
178.83
0
5
7
0
20
Florida
14
456
242
53.07
10.40
26
5.70
2518
5.52
12
179.86
0
13
1
0
21
Bowling Green
12
354
206
58.19
10.53
15
4.24
2170
6.13
13
180.83
0
6
6
0
22
Oregon St.
13
354
183
51.69
12.85
13
3.67
2352
6.64
15
180.92
0
9
4
0
23
Arizona
13
407
228
56.02
10.37
16
3.93
2365
5.81
12
181.92
0
8
5
0
24
Purdue
12
359
202
56.27
10.89
10
2.79
2199
6.13
14
183.25
1
4
8
0
25
Ohio St.
13
440
253
57.50
9.43
15
3.41
2386
5.42
12
183.54
1
10
3
0
2008 Rushing Defense Leaders: 247 wins vs 83 losses
Rank
Name
Games
Carries
Net
Avg
TDs
Ydspgm
Wins
Losses
Ties
1
TCU
13
355
612
1.72
9
47.08
11
2
0
2
Alabama
14
391
1038
2.65
5
74.14
12
2
0
3
Texas
13
356
1086
3.05
8
83.54
12
1
0
4
Mississippi
13
411
1112
2.71
9
85.54
9
4
0
5
Southern California
13
416
1136
2.73
8
87.38
12
1
0
6
Nevada
13
377
1152
3.06
17
88.62
7
6
0
7
Boston College
14
454
1277
2.81
14
91.21
9
5
0
8
Penn St.
13
430
1212
2.82
12
93.23
11
2
0
9
Iowa
13
397
1222
3.08
7
94.00
9
4
0
10
South Fla.
13
436
1238
2.84
12
95.23
8
5
0
11
Utah
13
415
1289
3.11
10
99.15
13
0
0
12
Tennessee
12
444
1237
2.79
6
103.08
5
7
0
13
Louisiana Tech
13
435
1350
3.10
12
103.85
8
5
0
14
Virginia Tech
14
451
1462
3.24
12
104.43
10
4
0
15
Florida
14
440
1476
3.35
9
105.43
13
1
0
16
Connecticut
13
423
1427
3.37
16
109.77
8
5
0
17
LSU
13
421
1432
3.40
17
110.15
8
5
0
18
Ohio St.
13
406
1433
3.53
7
110.23
10
3
0
19
Cincinnati
14
481
1610
3.35
13
115.00
11
3
0
20
Oklahoma
14
469
1627
3.47
19
116.21
12
2
0
21
Nebraska
13
418
1514
3.62
24
116.46
9
4
0
22
Boise St.
13
476
1534
3.22
9
118.00
12
1
0
23
Oregon
13
503
1552
3.09
18
119.38
10
3
0
24
Georgia Tech
13
432
1564
3.62
13
120.31
9
4
0
25
California
13
495
1589
3.21
16
122.23
9
4
0
Seven teams appear on both lists: USC, Tennessee, UConn, TCU, Va Tech, Florida, and Boston College. Their combined record was 68-25. So taking out those seven teams leaves the records as thus:
Passing D: 112-102 (52.3%)
Rushing D: 179-58 (75.5%)
I don't know about you but I'd call that an appreciable difference. Again I'm not trying to suggest that a team that can get by with a poor secondary, but given the choice of having a lockdown D against the pass or the run, it's apparent that you'd rather be solid against the run.
How does this bare out in the Big 10? Well the top 4 teams in pass defense last season were as follows: Purdue, Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin. Rush defense? Penn State, Iowa, Ohio State, and Northwestern. Doing the same thing we did with the top 25 D's, remove PSU and OSU and you get a breakdwon of 11-14 vs 18-8.
Should Michigan fans still be concerned about the state of the secondary? Certainly. Is it possible that this can still be an effective defense if it is able to excel against the run? Moreso than I previously thought...