Upset Watch: Week 5

For the first time this season, I nailed the majority of my picks, going 5-2 ATS. I'm now 10-17-1 on the season. Still, the victory feels a bit hollow, especially with a Michigan loss to rival Notre Dame.

Week five of the college football season begins with a PAC-12 North showdown in Seattle, as (#8) Stanford Cardinal visit the Washington Huskies (9:00 PM ET on ESPN) on Thursday. On Friday, the Brigham Young Cougars host the Hawaii Warriors on ESPN at 8:00 PM ET.

If you followed the Upset Watch last season, you know I pick five underdogs to cover the points, a favorite to cover, and I preview the Michigan game. Because Michigan is on a bye this week, there will be no pick on the game. I will substitute in another favorite to cover, though.

Be sure to check out my website, Before Visiting the Sportsbook, throughout the week, for more content.

Recap:

Wins

Kansas (1-3) +10.0 @ Northern Illinois (3-1). Result: Northern Illinois 30 Kansas 23.

New Mexico (2-2) +8.5 @ New Mexico State (1-3). Result: New Mexico 27 New Mexico State 14.

Clemson (3-1) +14.5 @ Florida State (4-0). Result: Florida State 49 Clemson 37.

Central Michigan (2-1) +18.0 @ Iowa (2-2). Result: Central Michigan 32 Iowa 31.

Marshall (2-2) -2.5 @ Rice (1-3). Result: Marshall 54 Rice 51.

Losses

Utah (2-2) +7.5 @ Arizona State (3-1). Result: Arizona State 37 Utah 7.

Michigan (2-2) +6.5 @ Notre Dame (4-0). Result: Notre Dame 13 Michigan 6.

Push

None

This Week

Only two games pair top 25 teams against one another, with (#25) Baylor Bears visiting (#9) West Virginia Mountaineers at 12:00 PM ET on FX. At 3:30 PM ET on ABC, the (#20) Michigan State Spartans host the (#14) Ohio State Buckeyes.

Upset Watch

Marshall (2-2) +18.0 @ Purdue (2-1). First ever meeting between these two teams. Purdue is 5-2-1 against current CUSA members, losing to Rice last year. The Thundering Herd are 0-6 against Big Ten teams, with an average margin of defeat of 29. Marshall is 7^th in total offense (1^st in passing, 52^rd in rushing), while the Boilermakers are 31^st in total offense (50^th in passing, 28^th in rushing). The Thundering Herd are 117^th in total defense (97^th in passing, 112^th in rushing), while Purdue is 17^th in total defense (27^th in passing, 25^th in rushing). Purdue Coach Danny Hope is 18-22 (20-19-1 ATS, 9-9 ATS as a favorite); Marshall Coach Doc Holliday is 14-15 (12-14-2 ATS; 7-8-1 as an underdog). Under Coach Holliday, the Herd are 2-4-2 ATS as two touchdown or more ‘dogs. Purdue is 4-3 ATS as a two touchdown or more favorite under Hope. Purdue has big games against Michigan and Wisconsin the next two weeks. I like Purdue to get the win, but I think they fail to cover the points, especially against a Marshall secondary that is better than the numbers indicate.

Missouri (2-2) +3.0 @ UCF (2-1). First meeting between the two schools. Missouri is .500 against current CUSA schools (17-17-2, but 13 of the 17 losses came to SMU). UCF is 1-10 hosting current BCS schools (beat Boston College last year, 30-3). Missouri is 98^th in total offense (97^th in passing, 76^th in rushing), while the Golden Knights are 77^th in total offense (60^th in passing, 66^th in rushing). The Tigers are 23^rd in total defense (46^th in passing, 24^th in rushing), while UCF is 46^th in total defense (32^nd in passing, 67^th in rushing). UCF Coach George O’Leary is 52-52 (57-47-1 ATS, 26-23-1 ATS as a favorite) since 2002; Missouri Coach Gary Pinkel is 83-49 (67-63-2 ATS; 18-17 as an underdog) since 2002. The Golden Knights are 4-10 coming off a bye week, under O’Leary. Its not surprising that Missouri has struggled in SEC play – they have faced two of the favorites to win the SEC East. A win over UCF means the Tigers will likely be bowl eligible come November 24^th. UCF, as of right now, is ineligible for the postseason due to sanctions. A win would do a lot for the Golden Knights’ program, but they have games against East Carolina and Southern Miss looming; the game against the Pirates is just 5 days after the Missouri game. I like the Tigers to cover the points and win outright.

North Carolina State (3-1) +3.5 @ Miami (FL) (3-1). Miami (FL) has lost back-to-back games in this series. Overall, the Hurricanes lead the series, 7-5-1. North Carolina State is 76^th in total offense (53^rd in passing, 83^rd in rushing), while the Hurricanes are 50^th in total offense (37^th in passing, 67^th in rushing). The Wolfpack are 30^th in total defense (40^th in passing, 35^th in rushing), while Miami (FL) is 98^th in total defense (65^th in passing, 109^th in rushing). Miami (FL) Coach Al Golden is 36-41 (42-32-2 ATS, 17-15 ATS as a favorite); North Carolina State Coach Tom O’Brien is 81-49 (69-51-4 ATS; 35-20-1 as an underdog) since 2002. Since 2004, North Carolina State is 26-38 in ACC games (37-30-1 ATS), Miami (FL) is 36-31 (28-37 ATS). The Wolfpack seem to fly under the radar each year, but they are a legitimate dark horse team to win the ACC Atlantic Division. That said, I like North Carolina State to pull the upset here. Both teams face big games next week, with NC State hosting Florida State and Miami (FL) playing Notre Dame at Soldier Field.

@ Rice (1-3) +7.0 Houston (0-3). These two teams meet for the Bayou Bucket and are separated by 6 miles. Houston is 7-3 in the last ten meetings, but the teams have split the last four games. Rice is 30^th in total offense (54^th in passing, 25^th in rushing), while the Cougars are 32^nd in total offense (6^th in passing, 95^th in rushing). The Owls are 119^th in total defense (84^th in passing, 119^th in rushing), while Houston is 118^th in total defense (107^th in passing, 113^th in rushing). Houston Coach Tony Levine is 1-3 (1-3 ATS, 1-1 ATS as a favorite); Rice Coach David Bailiff is 24-41 (31-31-2 ATS; 21-27-2 as an underdog). Rice is 7-6 ATS against Houston since 1999, including 4-2 since 2006. The home team is 9-3 since 1999, but this game is being played at Reliant Stadium. The Cougars have had a tough time replacing QB Case Keenum. Look for the struggles to continue, and for Rice to keep it close.

@ South Florida (2-2) +17.0 Florida State (4-0). Only meeting was in 2009, where USF won 17-7 in Tallahassee, despite being a 14-point underdog. Florida State is 17-5 in road openers, but has lost back-to-back road openers. South Florida is 43^rd in total offense (27^th in passing, 78^th in rushing), while the Seminoles are 4^th in total offense (26^th in passing, 8^th in rushing). The Bulls are 64^th in total defense (62^nd in passing, 72^nd in rushing), while Florida State is 2^nd in total defense (4^th in passing, 5^th in rushing). Florida State Coach Jimbo Fisher is 23-8 (17-14 ATS, 14-10 ATS as a favorite; South Florida Coach Skip Holtz is 51-39 (48-39-2 ATS; 24-11-2 as an underdog). The non-conference game against in-state foe South Florida is sandwiched between two big conference games (Clemson and at North Carolina State). South Florida heads to Temple next week. The Bulls looked awful the past two weeks, losing at home to Rutgers and at Ball State. I’m a bit wary of this pick, as the Bulls could be starting their tailspin early. With that said, I like the Bulls to keep it right around two touchdowns.

Sure-fire Favorites

@ Wake Forest (3-1) -3.0 Duke (3-1). Wake Forest is 6-0 against Duke, in games played in Winston-Salem. The Demon Deacons beat the Blue Devils 54-48, covering the five-point spread, in 2010. Wake Forest is 101^st in total offense (78^th in passing, 92^nd in rushing), while the Blue Devils are 49^th in total offense (17^th in passing, 105^th in rushing). The Demon Deacons are 106^th in total defense (49^th in passing, 117^th in rushing), while Duke is 44^th in total defense (74^th in passing, 23^rd in rushing). Wake Forest Coach Jim Grobe is 65-63 (60-63-2 ATS, 20-32-1 ATS as a favorite) since 2002; Duke Coach David Cutcliffe is 39-50 (47-37-2 ATS; 28-24-2 as an underdog) since 2002. Duke has lost 12 straight to Wake Forest. Since 2004, Duke is 3-29 in ACC road games (Boston College 2011, North Carolina State 2009, and Virginia 2009). Wake Forest is 6-9 ATS since 1997 against Duke, but 3-2 ATS in the last five meetings in Winston-Salem. Take Wake Forest with the points.

Miami (OH) (2-2) -5.5 @ Akron (1-3). Miami leads the series 13-4, but all four losses have been at Akron. The Redhawks won the last meeting in Akron, 19-14 in 2010, but failed to cover the nine-point spread; the meeting before that, in 2006, resulted in a 24-13 Akron win – Miami was a 7.5-point underdog. Miami (OH) is 105^th in total offense (63^rd in passing, 116^th in rushing), while the Zips are 37^th in total offense (9^th in passing, 100^th in rushing). The Redhawks are 110^th in total defense (77^th in passing, 114^th in rushing), while Akron is 81^st in total defense (58^th in passing, 99^th in rushing). Miami (OH) Coach Don Treadwell is 6-10 (7-9 ATS, 3-4 ATS as a favorite); Akron Coach Terry Bowden is 1-3 (3-1 ATS; 2-1 as an underdog) since 2002. Akron is 0-4 in MAC openers over the last four years, with an average loss of 30 points per game. The Redhawks are 6-5-2 ATS since 1997 in this series, including 5-2-1 since 2002. Take Miami to cover the points.

Who ya got? Tweet to us @BVTSB.