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Week 13 Vegas Lock: Cracking the Egg (Bowl)

I tried to make a podcast about this week's lock, yet found myself interrupted by a commotion of cowbells.

Spruce Derden-USA TODAY Sports

It's been a hell of a time breaking down the regular season.

From Mountain West team totals to Conference USA underdogs, all the way to depending on the Washington State Cougars, I've personally embarked on a dicey drag that's caused ulcers to turn from pink to crimson.

Like that famous Green Day song: "It's something unpredictable, but in the end it's right, I hope you enjoyed the lock of your life."

Lock of the Week Record: 8-3

Week 13 Lock

Ole Miss at Mississippi State (+1, 62)

This recent summer was a compelling crux, personally. I knew that covering college football was a simple task that sought little execution; the mass public could dabble if it wanted to. So once I took the reins of covering the betting aspect and aiding those that didn't have time to brainstorm themselves, my nights consisted of previews and tiny trinkets that could apply to certain situations.

It's true: I'm hell bent on trends. Not all of them, but when a specific angle peaks the forefront, it's a necessity to monitor, and then fire.

I've been waiting all year for this one.

Is Mississippi State defensively-structured? I wouldn't promptly peg the Bulldogs in this classification. Other cohorts of the SEC such as Missouri, Vanderbilt and even LSU would be better fits for this label.

Still, Mississippi State seems to pride itself on defense even while having a luxury in quarterback Dak Prescott, and there's a certain angle that's nudged me to believe that Ole Miss could have trouble scoring against a defense that was altogether wrecked by Arkansas last Saturday.

Albeit a 51-50 victory over the Razorbacks, here's how Mississippi State has fared upon surrendering 40 or more points since Dan Mullen settled into Starkville in 2009:

Year Opponent Opponent Team Total Result
2009 Vanderbilt 26 W, 15-3
2009 Houston 33.5 L, 24-31
2009 Mississippi 28 W, 41-27
2011 LSU 26 L, 6-19
2011 Mississippi 14.5 W, 31-3
2013 Alabama 38 L, 7-20
2013 Bowling Green 20.5 W, 21-20
Average Opponent Score 17.5

Ole Miss swayed audiences early with entertaining numbers and flashy stats. However, since hopping head-first into conference play, the Rebels have witnessed a minor decline. On the road, Ole Miss has hung up scores of 24, 10 and 27. While it scored 43 versus Alabama, Mississippi was assisted by a hoard of Crimson Tide turnovers.

It may not be a true 'home' game for the Bulldogs. It's a Mississippi clash. Still, Mississippi State has surrendered more than 31 points to a conference opponent in Starkville just once the previous three years.

Pick: Ole Miss Team Total Under 31.5