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Beware OSU: Teams That Win It All Regress Against The Spread The Following Year

Teams that add a National Championship to their trophy cases have gradually regressed against the spread the following season. Will Urban Meyer reverse the trend in 2015?

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

For a team surrounded with countless question marks, when the 2014 expedition was all said and done, Ohio State was clearly the best team in the nation. They own a National Championship to prove those naysayers.

However, that now breaks open a whole new can of worms for how 2015 could pan out.

It's rarely surprising. You know, to folly into your preferred sports bar and grill, only to find John Doe and his counterparts exchanging merriment betwixt Ohio State Buckeye wagers and Blue Moon with orange slices.

Well, two things Mr. Doe: relax with the oranges, and fade National Champions in the following season.

Why? Since 2005, only a pair of programs have progressed off of their previous season's against the spread record: Florida in 2006, and the Crimson Tide circa 2012 (cc: Eric Parkila, Parkila Sports).

National Champion Season Against the Spread Record Following Season ATS Record
Texas 2005 11-2 5-7
Florida 2006 5-7-1 8-4
LSU 2007 5-7-2 3-9
Florida 2008 12-1 7-7
Alabama 2009 9-5 8-8
Auburn 2010 11-4 5-8
Alabama 2011 9-5 7-7
Alabama 2012 7-7 7-6
Florida State 2013 11-2-1 3-11
Ohio State 2014 10-5 ?

Now, the job of the sportsbooks becomes more of a chore, with scarlet and grey the primary factor when whipping up spreads. Dealing with previous National Champions calls for inflated lines due to public affection, which tends to skyrocket these favorites into the stratosphere. I'm not certain if the stratosphere is the highest of the 'spheres,' but hopefully you've latched onto what I'm throwing out there.

This is far from preaching that Ohio State will gradually decline in 2015. Conversing on an unbiased note, it's a talented program that will certainly be in talks of banners and celebration come January 2016.

However, pick your spots. This team will gain a wide margin of love come Saturdays, and if you seek valuable outlets to fade them, history chit-chats for itself.

Plan on joining hands in the public outcry of Ohio State wagering? Take caution. Double-digits favorites following a National Championship are just 32-33 against the spread since 2006. Aside from Week 1's opener versus Frank Beamer's Hokies (in certain places), the Buckeyes will open as a double-digit favorite in every contest.

Urban Meyer, if you're reading this: do better. Or don't--whatever.