Best Bets: Look for Bama to Go 'Under' the Total

As much as I tag myself a trends junkie, I realistically won’t wager on a play if I don’t fancy the circumstances. However, I loved Utah State to put up points at Washington last week, given wide receiver Hunter Sharp was returning to add a bit of flair to a dismal offense. While I was far from sold on the Huskies defense, it rarely helps to fiddle with a quarterback that makes it a chore to walk in a straight line without limping; Chuckie Keeton duplicated a 12-year old action figure that had been torn to shreds.

It happens.

Lock of the Week

UL Monroe at Alabama (-38, 55)

Another situational play breezes into view with the Alabama Crimson Tide. Losses down in Tuscaloosa come few and far between, which meant that there had to be something to feed off of Roll Tide following a defeat at home to Ole Miss.

Opponent	Year	Result Following Loss	Total	Over/Under
Arkansas	2014	W, 14-13	53.5	Under
Western Carolina	2012	W, 49-0	55	Under
Mississippi State	2011	W, 24-7	44.5	Under
Ole Miss	2010	W, 23-10	53	Under
Mississippi State	2010	W, 30-10	45.5	Under
Florida State	2007	L, 10-24	44.5	Under
Houston	2007	W, 30-24	58	Under
Mississippi State	2007	L, 12-17	49	Under
UL Monroe	2007	L, 14-21	56	Under
Auburn	2007	L, 10-17	45	Under

Since 2007 AKA the Saban era, Alabama is a flawless 10-0 to the under following a loss. Now, while this goes back to 2007, I would refrain from all the "what does this have to do with anything, it’s from 2007?" empty talk. Typically, I’ll correlate these trends stemming from the same ringleader and clearly, Saban has rallied in a defensive manner.

I don’t see Louisiana-Monroe moving the ball, nor do I see a Crimson Tide offense capable of covering this number alone. I loosely predict ‘Bama to start somewhat slow (hangover, much?) and ultimately seal the deal late in the third quarter.

Prediction: UL Monroe 6 Alabama 41

Pick: UL Monroe-Alabama Under 55

Best Bets

Navy at Connecticut (+6.5, 48.5)

Tough sledding for Connecticut last week. Seriously, that one sucks. The boys from out east prance into Mizzou as 21-point underdogs and nearly take the cookies from Gary Pinkel's Tigers. Now the Huskies meddle in American Athletic affairs versus the Navy Midshipmen, and just ask the Pirates of East Carolina how fun it is to nearly upend a foe one week and revert back to prepare for the triple option.

Quarterback Keenan Reynolds engineered 45 points versus ECU and now the Huskies fall into a similar angle. I despise laying chalk on the road but I'll take the team that has its pieces aligned.

Pick: Navy -6.5

Miami (Ohio) at Western Kentucky (-20.5, 67)

I love Western Kentucky as much as the next, but I'm easing up on the reins here with Miami (Ohio) coming into Bowling Green. The 'Toppers off a marginal loss to the hands of the Hoosiers will begin their conference quest at Rice the first week of October, but oh wait: let's not forget about the Redhawks wallowing in that appetizing sandwich.

WKU still has a lot of toying around to do with injuries to a few significant areas while Miami found some offensive success versus Cincinnati last week. Will Western Kentucky fully lie down to a cupcake? Probably not, but you'll find a short scroll with people backing the Redhawks: yours truly is one of those inscribed on that skimpy sheet of paper.

Pick: Miami (Ohio) +20.5