The machines have made their Week 1 picks.
On Thursday morning, SB Nation’s Bill Connelly released the S&P+ (and F/+) score projections for the opening weekend of the college football season. For those unfamiliar with S&P+, it is a college football ratings system that is derived from play-by-play data, adjusts for the strength of a team’s opponents, and eliminates garbage-time drives. I believe it to be very accurate and the “KenPom” of college football.
The current Vegas spread in Michigan-Hawaii is Michigan -40.5, and S&P+ is in exact agreement. S&P+ projects that the Wolverines will whop the Warriors, 45.0-4.5, or by a margin of 40.5 points. This may not be a game on which you should wager in Vegas, but, if you’re feeling inclined nonetheless, I took the points in my Big Ten ATS picks.
Either way, it’s a near-certainty (99.0%) that the Wolverines win in Week 1.
Here is what S&P+ projects for the other Big Ten Week 1 games:
- Indiana 39.8, Florida International 24.6 (81.1%)
- Minnesota 36.9, Oregon State 20.8 (82.4%)
- Michigan State 45.5, Furman 8.5 (98.4%)
- Ohio State 39.2, Bowling Green 20.4 (86.0%)
- Purdue 34.9, Eastern Kentucky 21.9 (77.5%)
- Maryland 47.8, Howard 10.7 (98.4%)
- Northwestern 30.7, Western Michigan 25.9 (60.9%)
- Washington 40.9, Rutgers 15.4 (7.0%)
- Penn State 32.4, Ken State 6.6 (93.2%)
- Iowa 39.0, Miami (OH) 14.2 (92.4%)
- Illinois 38.5, Murray State 15.4 (90.9%)
- LSU 34.8, Wisconsin 17.1 (15.3%)
- Nebraska 41.6, Fresno State 18.2 (91.2%)
What do you think? Agree or disagree with S&P+’s projections? Tell us below!