I feel pretty regenerated after the bye week. Hopefully the Wolverines do, too, because this is an important week for Michigan Football every season. It’s Rivalry Week!
I had to get that video in this story somehow. Segue game: A+.
Betting game: not so much. I went 3-3 last week to bring my season total to 27-22. Still over the .500 mark but still not where I want it to be. Let’s get to it, folks.
FCS Opponent: Indiana
No. 4 Penn State at Northwestern
Line: Penn State -14; O/U: 55.5
I confidently picked against Northwestern last weekend when they went to Wisconsin.
But this week I am even more confidently going to pick against Northwestern. Penn State is without question the most dominant team in the Big 10 as of right now, especially on offense, so for them to win by two touchdowns isn’t asking a whole lot out of them. I know it’s at Northwestern, but at this point does that really matter all that much? Probably a little bit, but not enough to factor into my pick. Gimme the Nittany Lions.
Pick: Penn State -14
Illinois at Iowa
Line: Iowa -18; O/U: 43
Iowa returns home, the only place they can seem to win a football game, to take on arguably the worst team in the conference this year.
Mark this up as the (explicit) show of the week!
Illinois lost at home last weekend to a Nebraska team that doesn’t seem to have its act together in any aspect of the game. The Fighting Illini only put up six points. Six. Needless to say, they’re horrible.
Iowa, however, has won both home games this season by a combined score of 55-17. Yup, I’m taking Iowa.
Pick: Iowa -18
Minnesota at Purdue
Line: Purdue -4; O/U: 48.5
This is a very interesting game. Perhaps the most interesting Big 10 game of the week.
The last time we saw the Boilermakers in action they were sweating like pigs and getting whooped around its own field by the Maize and Blue two weekends ago. Odds are the temperatures will be a bit cooler, but P.J. Fleck is coming to town to bring his red hot intensity to try and warm things up a tad.
Purdue may have a QB problem at the moment. Elijah Sindelar had three more pass attempts than David Blough in the Boilermakers’ previous game against Michigan. I’m not sure if they made the switch because of the defense they were up against or because of a trust issue, but it’s never good to use two quarterbacks just as much and have them both not do well. I don’t want anything to do with this spread. If you’re a fan of either of these teams and are a betting person, stay away from this game.
Pick: Under 48.5
Maryland at No. 10 Ohio State
Line: Ohio State -31.5; O/U: 58.5
Despite being down to its third string quarterback, Maryland handed Minnesota its first L of the season last weekend. The Terps’ third stringer, Max Bortenschlager, looked pretty damn good going 18-for-28 for 154 yards and two touchdowns. The Terps’ running game was effective the entire game while Minnesota struggled offensively with two interceptions and two fumbles (none lost).
...BUT this is Ohio State we are talking about. Albeit the same team that had an Oklahoma flag planted at the 50-yard line after a bad loss, but the Buckeyes picked it up the last couple weeks thanks to trash opponents. Maryland isn’t trash, but it will be Bortenschlager’s first true test as a starting quarterback. I don’t like his chances to win, but I do think Maryland wins the line.
Pick: Maryland +31.5
No. 9 Wisconsin at Nebraska
Line: Wisconsin -11.5; O/U: 47
I’ve been sitting here thinking of what I want to pick for like 10 minutes now. This is tricky.
Wisconsin looked shaky against Northwestern last weekend at home, as Alex Hornibrook threw two picks and the team overall fumbled thrice, losing one of them. However, Nebraska has kept every game its played relatively close (excluding the Illinois game because ... Illinois). Wisconsin should win this game, but I will take the over here anyways.
Pick: Over 47
Michigan State at No. 7 Michigan
Line: Michigan -10.5; O/U: 41.5
I am going to make this short and sweet: The Wolverines are 2-2 against the spread so far this season. However, I am 0-4 when picking the Michigan game. For that simple reason, I am picking MSU and hoping I am wrong yet again.
Pick: Michigan State +10.5