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ESPN’s FPI updates Michigan Football’s outlook following Michigan State game

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No margin for error moving forward.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: OCT 30 Michigan at Michigan State Photo by Adam Ruff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Michigan fell to No. 9 in the AP Top 25 and to No. 10 in the USA Today Coaches Poll on Sunday, and now further projections are in via ESPN’s updated Football Power Index.

After their 37-33 loss to Michigan State, the Wolverines moved down from No. 4 to No. 5 in ESPN’s FPI: ESPN gives the Wolverines a 11.3% chance of winning the Big Ten East and a 20.5% chance of making the College Football Playoff.

The only Big Ten team ranked above Michigan in the FPI is Ohio State at No. 3. Despite beating Michigan, Michigan State actually moved down in the FPI from No. 14 to No. 15.

Michigan’s next opponent, Indiana, is currently No. 72 in the FPI. The only other future Michigan opponent in the FPI’s top 25 is No. 17 Penn State, who lost to Ohio State on Saturday.

For reference, here were the FPI percentages from last week

Here are the updated chances of victory for each opponent this season

Nov. 6- vs. Indiana: 92.2% chance of winning

Nov. 13- at Penn State: 57.2% chance of winning

Nov. 20- at Maryland: 87.7% chance of winning

Nov. 27- vs. Ohio State: 36.4% chance of winning