Betting the Big Ten: Week 11

Week 10 was not kind to us here on Betting the Big Ten. We correctly bet the Michigan game and the Ohio State game but that’s it. The Big Ten West as a whole was baffling with Illinois falling to Michigan State and Purdue forgetting how to score points.

On the whole, we went 2-5. I’m choosing to be optimistic heading into Week 11.

Here’s what’s in store for this week. All lines courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Purdue at Illinois (-6.5), O/U 44.5, Noon

I’m tentative about this spread because I still don’t fully feel like I know either of these teams. Illinois supposedly has a solid defense but it struggled with Michigan State of all teams. Similarly, Purdue’s offense is supposedly potent but only put up three points against Iowa last week. Head-to-head, these two teams have hit the under five years in a row. I’ll bet on the train continuing to roll.

The pick: Under 44.5

Rutgers at Michigan State (-9.5), O/U 40, Noon

Michigan State has been playing slightly better football of late. I’m still surprised the spread is this large. The last two games between these teams at Spartan Stadium were a 14-10 snoozefest and a 38-27 shootout. That wild variation scares me away from the over/under just enough. Back to the spread, MSU is 2-0 as a favorite this year and 3-2 at home while Rutgers is 1-2-1 away from home.

The pick: Michigan State -9.5

Indiana at Ohio State (-40), O/U 58.5, Noon

These gargantuan spreads always give me pause because a garbage time touchdown can kill them. Indiana’s offense is just good enough that I don’t like the Buckeyes to cover by six touchdowns. However, after offensive struggles last week, I expect Ohio State to exorcise some demons and put the pedal to the metal on offense. The Buckeyes are 6-3 on over/unders and 4-2 at home.

The pick: Over 58.5

Wisconsin (-1.5) at Iowa, O/U 35, 3:30 pm

This game would have been irrelevant two weeks ago, but now all of a sudden it has Big Ten West implications. As of Monday night, Iowa was favored by a point in this one but the spread has since crossed the bridge to Wisconsin. That’s an automatic bet for me. On Wisconsin.

The pick: Wisconsin -1.5

Northwestern at Minnesota (-17.5), O/U 41, 3:30 p.m.

Northwestern has shown signs of life in bad weather against the two hardest teams on its schedule: Penn State and Ohio State. Against everyone else, not so much. However, Minnesota’s inability to cover moderately large spreads has burned me one too many times. Look for both these teams to run, run, and run some more while eating up tons of clock. The under has hit in five of Minnesota’s nine games with a push in another.

The pick: Under 41

Nebraska at Michigan (-30.5), O/U 48.5, 3:30 p.m.

Michigan barely covered last weekend against Rutgers thanks to a lethargic first half. I don’t expect the Wolverines to start slow this week at home against a Nebraska team that may or may not have starting quarterback Casey Thompson due to injury. The backup quarterback situation in Lincoln has not been good, nor has their defense. I fully expect Michigan to score early and often in this one.

The pick: Michigan -30.5

Maryland at Penn State (-10), O/U 59, 3:30 p.m.

Penn State has been an overs machine this year, going over on seven out of nine games. However, in these two teams’ past four matchups, all have gone under. The most telling stat to me is in the past four head-to-head matchups between these teams (excluding 2020), the average margin of victory was Penn State by 43.5. Outside of the Covid year, these games have not been close. Give me Penn State to cover.

The pick: Penn State -10

As always, please bet responsibly.