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Michigan Bubble part 2: Where we stand

So I was going to wait a bit before posting a further update because right now Michigan’s season really seems to be hanging on a knife’s edge with the PSU game being a pretty much make or break game and thus an update after that game seemed much more prevalent. However, I hear and read these takes all the time: Michigan is not an NCAA tourney team, This team is destined for the NIT, I don’t see them having any chance without winning the B1G tournament. But there is a huge flaw in that logic that is going wildly missed by anyone adhering to these types of comments. But first let’s look at the resume as of 2/7/2022:

Michigan’s Resume: NET 52

Quadrant 1

Quadrant 2

Quadrant 3

Quadrant 4

1-5

2-3

4-1

4-0


Alright so this time we will skip some intriguing reasons/results I was hoping to break down showing how fragile rankings are and how these past two weeks really hurt Michigan’s NET due mainly to every peripheral team. Instead I want to talk about those concerns above. First let’s state the obvious. This Michigan team has just struggled at times. They often look outmatched and don’t seem to bring the necessary energy into the 2nd half of the game. They have had some down right bad blowouts and their offense and defense can just disappear for WIDE stretches at a time. Because of all those reasons the cause for doubt is not only understandable but warranted. Add to that, that at this moment Michigan isn’t even on the bubble and it becomes clear to understand why many are auto pegging this team to miss the tournament.

Now with all of those concerns voiced let’s talk about what most fans aren’t observing when making these claims about Michigan’s season. That piece of the puzzle that is being forgotten is understanding the NCAA bubble. Often it isn’t so much about your team as it is about which other teams are still fighting for contention. So with that said let’s look at 8 of them:

TEAM

NET

QUAD 1

QUAD 2

QUAD 3

QUAD 4

FLORIDA

44

1-5

3-1

6-1

5-1

MIAMI

73

3-1

4-4

5-2

4-0

MISS STATE

48

1-5

2-1

5-2

6-0

OKLAHOMA

46

2-8

4-1

1-1

6-0

STANFORD

89

4-5

2-3

3-0

5-0

VCU

77

2-2

3-4

4-1

5-0

WAKE FOREST

38

1-3

4-2

5-0

9-0

WEST VA

63

2-8

3-1

1-0

7-0

Now what should immediately jump out to you is just how incredibly SOFT this bubble is. What that means is bracketologist are searching desperately for teams with a resume good enough to be worthy of the bubble. Compare Michigan’s to any of these teams and Michigan’s resume stands near or at worst just a hair away. To delve deeper into this let’s look at what Michigan has left on their schedule and when in bold that means it is very likely to remain in that quad or improve:

@PSU Quad 2 - Purdue Quad 1 - OSU Quad 1 - @Iowa Quad 1 - @Wisc Quad 1 - Rutgers Quad 3 - Illinois Quad 1 - MSU Quad 1 - Iowa Quad 1 - @OSU Quad 1

So looking at the remaining schedule Michigan has 2 must win games. @PSU and home verse Rutgers. Even the @PSU game could be an affordable L IF Michigan were to pick up an extra win. Now what I mean by extra win is currently looking at their schedule and at the bubble I would confidently say that if Michigan finishes .500 in conference play they will very likely end up in the NCAA tournament. If they were to lose to PSU they may need to finish one game above .500.

Let’s contrast this with Florida’s remaining schedule as they play in one of the toughest conferences:

Georgia Quad 4 - @UK Quad 1 - @Texas A&M Quad 1 - Auburn Quad 1 - Arkansas Quad 2 - @Georgia Quad 3 - @Vandy Quad 2 - UK Quad 1

That is some bad landmines in Georgia and some extremely tough quality wins with Kentucky and Auburn. Florida not only needs to avoid serious potential trouble, but needs to either pull a stunning upset or hold serve on the other remaining games.

We could do this with the rest, but outside of UWV and OU no schedule even comes close to the level of chances Michigan’s schedule is set to deliver and both those teams are currently sitting well below .500 in conference which never sits well with the committee.

Basically when we talk about Michigan’s chances to make the NCAA tournament we need to think beyond just what we see on the court and think about what is the product other teams that are fighting for the same spot are putting out there. Michigan’s resume lacks some quality Quad 1 wins. But again looking at their schedule well it is absolutely loaded with chances. I can easily see this team winning 3 of their remaining home games and grabbing two on the road. That’s all they would need. It doesn’t matter how they get them or if they don’t look great in the Ls they take. In order to make the NCAA tournament a .500 record in conference play would probably do it.

Alright Michigan fans and those that just find the NCAA tournament that much more fun when your team is in it, hopefully this has given you hope. Yes, this team hasn’t looked great at times. Yes, they seem to put forth lackluster games/2nd halves. Yes, some of their losses seem like head scratchers and the offense/defense disappears too often. HOWEVER, the light at the end of all of that is SO IS EVERYBODY ELSE THIS YEAR, well, at least those also fighting over the bubble. Take heart! We aren’t the only disappointed fans out there!

For reference on how Quad Wins and Losses work:

Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75

Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135

Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240

Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

NET RANKINGS

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