Betting the Big Ten: Week 5

In Week 4, Chattanooga forgot how to play offense but Ohio State certainly didn’t. We narrowly missed the under of the century in Iowa vs. Rutgers, but easily hit the Miami (OH) vs. Northwestern under. Also, what’s wrong with Purdue? I thought Purdue -20 was a lock but it barely squeaked by Florida Atlantic.

Overall we went a respectable 5-4 last week on Betting the Big Ten. Let’s keep it going in Week 5.

Here’s what we have to look forward to this week. All lines are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Michigan (-11) at Iowa, O/U 42.5, Noon Saturday

I’ve been back and forth on this one all week. A shrewd bettor could have gotten Michigan at -4.5 as late as last week. If you’re like me and have waited all the way until now, -11 doesn’t feel great. However, I just don’t see how Iowa scores on Michigan. The Hawkeye defense is currently outscoring the Iowa offense on the season. It won’t take much from the Michigan offense to cover the spread here.

The pick: Michigan -11

Purdue at Minnesota (-12), O/U 52, Noon

Minnesota has won four straight matchups with Purdue despite being an underdog in all four. Now the heavy favorites, things have certainly changed for the Golden Gophers. I struggle to pull the trigger on the spread without knowing if Aidan O’Connell will play or not. What I do know is both teams can score, even without O’Connell.

The pick: Over 52

Illinois at Wisconsin (-7), O/U 43.5, Noon

This line has crept closer and closer to Illinois’s favor this week, and for good reason. The Fighting Illini have covered the spread in three of their four games this season, with the Indiana loss being the only exception (with some questionable officiating mixed in). After last week’s debacle against the Buckeyes, I’ve lost a lot of faith in Wisconsin.

The pick: Illinois +7

Rutgers at Ohio State (-40), O/U 59, 3:30 p.m.

Unsurprisingly, these two teams have had massive spreads in the past few years. Surprisingly, Rutgers has covered in two of the last three and hasn’t lost by 40 or more since 2018. Don’t get me wrong, this will be an absolute blowout. However, I like Rutgers’ chances to get a backdoor cover once the Buckeyes call off the horses.

The pick: Rutgers +40

Northwestern at Penn State (-25.5), O/U 52, 3:30 p.m.

Northwestern has been a home favorite by seven or more points in each of the last three games and has lost all three games outright. On the flip side, Penn State has covered in every game this season except last week a pesky Central Michigan team. I don’t see the Wildcats turning around their season this week, if at all.

The pick: Penn State -25.5

Michigan State at Maryland (-8.5), O/U 60, 3:30 p.m.

The 8.5 spread seems like a ton of points for Maryland to lay against a former top-10 team. With that being said, Michigan State is in full-on tailspin mode. The Spartan secondary couldn’t even remotely stop Tanner Morgan and the Minnesota offense. I don’t see how they can slow down a Maryland offense that performed admirably against a much better Michigan defense.

The pick: Maryland Team Points Over 34.5

Indiana at Nebraska (-4.5), O/U 60, 7:30 p.m.

I saved my boldest pick for last. Nebraska hasn’t covered the spread in any of its four games this season. Indiana hasn’t done much better, but has at least outright won three games. In a normal year, a night game in Lincoln would be a raucous atmosphere and I’d easily choose the Huskers. This year, the tailspin continues as the Hoosiers pull off the upset on the road.

The pick: Indiana ML (+175)

As always, please bet responsibly.