Weekly Check-in of Where Things Stand

Disheartening loss on Saturday, but there was a lot of good news throughout the week. The best thing is how much clarity seemed to have revealed itself for the bubble picture with many teams struggling to take advantage of the opportunities in front of them. Here is how it all shook out

Michigan’s Resume:

Despite the loss Michigan’s NET did rise this week albeit very slightly. Started the week at 68 and finished 67th. Nebraska will likely stay a Quad 3 win, but it was a dominant win and even the IU loss the numbers will like that it was a narrow defeat that Michigan largely led. Pittsburgh is also now back at NET 52 meaning that Michigan is very close to squeezing out a third Q1 win. The very first posting of these I mentioned that 6 Quad 1 wins seems like the "control your own destiny mark." Four probably won’t cut it and 5 will be extremely iffy with that Quad 4 defeat.

On to the conference teams list. So unlike last week, this week teams like Florida, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, Clemson, and New Mexico all had pretty terrible weeks. What that means is it clarified our picture a bit. In our list of multi-bid conferences there are now 39 teams likely to make the dance. Ideally 10 of those also are conference tourney champs. So the bubble has 7 spots available:

Of the teams currently "Looking Bubbly" Memphis, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma St, West Virginia, New Mexico, Mississippi St, and Kentucky all seem like the best picks. The PAC-12 took a major hit this past week. Everyone in the "Outside" section is all in need of the same thing, A Few Good Wins. Michigan is no different but they are getting perilously close to the edge here.

Here is the remaining schedule which really seems locked into their Quad placements unless Michigan gifts Wisconsin two wins in which case Michigan’s case would be closed:

What changed from last week to this is that in truth Michigan is in a can’t lose week. Not only is it an avoid a loss week, but it comes at the expense of doing little more than keep their heads above water. They lose to either Wisconsin or MSU this week and well they could go 4-0 to close out the season, but even then the numbers would be hard pressed to include them. Luckily both games are winnable.

Finally, here are a few of the impact bubble games to watch for this week. I’m not including the weekend games as there are just too many at that point. I have the team to root for in bold:

There were a ton that could be selected this week, but if all these went in favor of the bold team and Michigan had a 2-0 week the door would definitely be open.

As always, for reference on how Quad Wins and Losses work:

• Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
• Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
• Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
• Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353