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'Fight-or-Flight' refers to a physiological reaction that ultimately weighs how a figure responds to a harmful event, or a threat to survival. It tests a stress response, in which these characters have a choice: fight, or flee.
I'm no mastermind betwix the psychosocial aspect of sport, but it certainly applies in regards to the game. It's no surprise that head coaches and teams alike respond to failure on a wide spectrum.
The Formula
The formula weighs on head coaches (and their current team) and how they perform following a loss as a favorite of five (5) or more points (since 2000). Given spreads from 1-4 points are seemingly coin flips, the subject number strictly depicts a team as a clear favorite. Coaches were only pulled if they've been hauled into this role a minimum of four times.
|
School |
Head Coach |
ATS Record Following Letdown |
ATS % |
Average Margin ATS |
|
Indiana |
Wilson |
4 -- 0 |
100% |
(+)20.8 |
|
Michigan State |
Dantonio |
4 -- 0 |
100% |
(+)11.4 |
|
Central Florida |
O'Leary |
5 -- 1 |
83% |
(+)11.4 |
|
Iowa |
Ferentz |
9 -- 3 |
75% |
(+)6.2 |
|
Baylor |
Briles |
3 -- 1 |
75% |
(+)5.1 |
|
Air Force |
Calhoun |
3 -- 1 |
75% |
(+)4.5 |
|
Utah |
Whittingham |
6 -- 3 |
67% |
(+)8.9 |
|
BYU |
Mendenhall |
4 -- 2 |
67% |
(+)0.3 |
|
Ohio |
Solich |
5 -- 3 |
63% |
(+)3.3 |
|
Missouri |
Pinkel |
8 -- 5 |
62% |
(+)2.3 |
|
Notre Dame |
Kelly |
3 -- 2 |
60% |
(+)10.4 |
|
Georgia |
Richt |
6 -- 4 |
60% |
(+)9.7 |
|
Oklahoma State |
Gundy |
3 -- 2 |
60% |
(+)6.8 |
|
Florida State |
Fisher |
3 -- 2 |
60% |
(+)5.5 |
|
MTSU |
Stockstill |
3 -- 2 |
60% |
(+)2.7 |
|
South Carolina |
Spurrier |
4 -- 3 |
57% |
(+)4.7 |
|
Oklahoma |
Stoops |
9 -- 7 |
56% |
(+)6.3 |
|
Kansas State |
Snyder |
5 -- 4 |
56% |
(-)0.05 |
|
TCU |
Patterson |
5 -- 5 |
50% |
(+)1.6 |
|
Virginia Tech |
Beamer |
9 -- 10 |
47% |
(-)1.7 |
|
Northwestern |
Fitzgerald |
2 -- 4 |
33% |
(-)4.3 |
|
Georgia Tech |
Johnson |
2 -- 5 |
29% |
(-)11.9 |
|
Clemson |
Swinney |
1 -- 3 |
25% |
(-)2.4 |
|
Navy |
Niumatalolo |
2 -- 7 |
22% |
(-)2.4 |
|
Alabama |
Saban |
1 -- 5 |
17% |
(-)2.6 |
Let's be honest, there's a substantial amount of work that can be tinkered with here. You can suggest home/road splits act as a significant factor as well, but that's where ATS (against the spread) margin comes into play. If a team is +35 and loses by 28, they would be classified as +7--not -28-- in that category.
The Big Ten heads the pack with Indiana's Kevin Wilson and Michigan State's Mark Dantonio, as they've clocked in blemish-free at a combined 8-0; Wilson is covering by nearly three scores. Iowa's Kirk Ferentz also breezes in at number four behind UCF'S George O'Leary, as he's covered nine of 12 in this situation.
With the glitz and eye-opening comes a dash of gray areas, especially the logjam cemented in the middle. Crazy as it is, guys like Kansas State's Bill Snyder and Virginia Tech's Frank Beamer have endured a seesaw battle, while Nick Saban emerges as the bottom feeder in this role. It's not by much (-2.6 per contest), but a 1-5 clip, the big, bad Crimson Tide aren't exactly shellacking opposition following a letdown.
Once 2015 rolls around, I'll be sure to check in frequently to work up some magic and plug in these outlets via the 'letdown role,' but here's a small cheat sheet:
Play: Indiana, Michigan State, Central Florida, Iowa, Utah, Notre Dame, Missouri
Fade: Alabama, Navy, Georgia Tech, Northwestern, Clemson