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Weighing in on Big Ten Odds for Week 3 Match Ups

The latest rendition of bettors vs. oddsmakers sees a ton of value outside your traditional betting lines

Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

We return with yet another list of opinions regarding Week 3 encounters: large favorites, low totals, and everything you can fit inside that logjam. The newest slate is offering some serious value outside the traditional 'line and total' subdivision.

Last Week’s Results

Penn State Team Total Over 34-L

Miami (Ohio) 1H +17.5-L

Maryland/BG 1H U34.5-W

Michigan State -3.5-L

Nebraska/South Alabama U54.5-L

Michigan -14.5-W

Oregon State Team Total Under-W

Wazzou +3-W

Rutgers Team Total Under 33-L

Rutgers/Wazzou Under 63-L

OSU/Hawaii Under 60-W

Indiana -7.5-W

Minnesota/CSU Over-L

Iowa/Iowa State Over-L

Total Big Ten Record: 15-11


Lock of the Weekend Record: 1-0

Kind of frightening to think what could have been if Michigan State sealed up Oregon instead of letting the Ducks slip in that backdoor score. As for Rutgers and the under, I put 150% of the blame on Washington State’s special teams. If the year was 1965 I’d deck out every member of that unit with a 3-foot dunce cap; I’m half-heartedly upset, however (insert smiley). Washington State assisted in sealing up our 'lock of the weekend' as River Cracraft hauled in a pass from Luke Falk with just :8 remaining. Rutgets=serious trouble from here on out.

To Week 3 we go!

South Florida at Maryland

Time: Saturday (12 ET)

Line: Maryland -7, 52.5

So, the Terps may opt for the ole’ gunslinger in Daxx Garman, eh? The Oklahoma State transfer will perhaps be in this weekend’s mesh with South Florida, a team that bugged and nipped at Florida State’s heels for the early stages of last week’s melee. For the Bulls, it's a super stagnant offense with a respectable defense.

Saturday’s the final go-around for Maryland before entering a coarse chain of contests (West Va, Michigan, Ohio State, Sparty) and a fair shake that the Turtles can squeak out a much-needed win prior to the upper echelon.

Pick: Maryland -7

Kent State at Minnesota

Time: Saturday (12 ET)

Line: Minnesota -23.5, 48.5

Two games in and I’m dealt with a quagmire of fishy lines. Minnesota tested Texas Christian in its home opener, then jolts out to the agonizing altitude at Colorado State and nearly trips up to 0-2.

What are we getting with the Golden Gophers this weekend? I couldn’t tell you, but the fact that Illinois romped on Kent State circa Week 1 and the ‘books are pleading for Minny wagers, this could open up a slot to grab the over, as I think Kill’s offense can score at will.

Pick: Kent State-Minnesota Over 48.5

Air Force at Michigan State

Time: Saturday (12 ET)

Line: Michigan State -26.5, 56.5

Huge win for Sparty on Saturday against a potent offensive attack in Oregon. East Lansing patrons should have countless excuses to display hope for its football team as Michigan State inches up in the AP Poll, decorating its agenda with an illustrious victory versus a Top 10 club.

I see no signs of slowing down here, and let’s note that since this revamp of Sparty’s offense emanated, Mark Dantonio is trouncing mid-majors: Spartans are 4-0 to the team total over when matched with G5 opponents since last season.

Pick: Michigan State Team Total Over 41

Illinois at North Carolina

Time: Saturday (12 ET)

Line: North Carolina -10.5, 64

Want to talk about a team that I absolutely, 100% loathe having action on? No, seriously, I’ll wipe any class I have scheduled for this week to rendezvous so we can marry and execrate the North Carolina Tar Heels as a couple.

For a team accompanied with renowned athleticism across the board on offense, I’ve yet to eyeball a correlative bunch that underperforms. With Marquise Williams orchestrating the unsystematic merry-go-round with receivers Quinshad Davis, Ryan Switzer and Bug Howard hitching coach, Larry Fedora’s bevy appears to search—and find—endless ways to squander opportunities, especially during red zone pleasantry.

Illinois: just your traditional defense that’s allowing 1.5 points per game via defense. Kent State and Western Illinois seldom squirm into juggernaut talk, so I expect at least some sort of success for North Carolina when it handles the pigskin.

I’ve answered more questions correctly on Monday’s episode of Jeopardy than I have guessing correctly on UNC contests since I was 15 years young, so give me the first half under and watch that ticket serve as just another slip of loose-leaf in a stockpile of lighter fluid and flames.

Pick: Illinois-North Carolina 1H Under 31.5

Northwestern at Duke

Time: Saturday (12:30 ET)

Line: Duke -3.5, 49

You want my honest opinion? Northwestern warily wobbled into the Top 25 due to process of elimination. I’m in no way prepared to buy into the team, just yet, that is. Sure, the ‘Cats strikingly subverted the Stanford Cardinal, but a west coast affiliate marching into the Midwest in no way was ready for that ballgame.

Duke took an adequate step back this offseason with the loss of playmaker Jamison Crowder and is still lurking for consistent quarterback play but this could be the game where you fade Fitzgerald.

Pick: Duke -3.5

Virginia Tech at Purdue

Time: Saturday (3:30 ET)

Line: Virginia Tech -6, 48

Bit of a weird setup here, but I’ll cut endless people in line to claim that I absolutely drool over these encounters.

An ACC team traveling to the pit of America to frolic amid the devil’s playground AKA West Lafayette, Indiana, I originally bookmarked the Hokies as 11-point favorites. That lines falls nearly a touchdown short, so I’ll just tag this one as a full-on trap, as I think Austin Appleby at quarterback has transitioned extremely smooth for the ‘Makers.

Pick: Purdue +6

Troy at Wisconsin

Time: Saturday (3:30)

Line: Wisconsin -35, 59.5

This line is tiptoeing the edge of both befuddlement and authenticity, given the Badgers thrashed the Miami Ohio Redhawks last week, yet five touchdowns unleased by the oddsmakers are similar to last week’s line.

Troy’s been absolutely brutal on third down thus far in ’15, compiling a measly 5-20 clip. It’s seemingly your traditional Trojans football team, if we’re being kind.

My stance remains cluttered but I think I like the under here. I think.

Pick: Wisconsin-Troy Under 59.5

Northern Illinois at Ohio State

Time: Saturday (3:30 ET)

Line: Ohio State -34, 66.5

Ohio State backers sat frustrated as the Buckeyes took eons to get the wheels churning versus Hawaii, so that begs the possibility of Urban Meyer lighting a kindle underneath his offense in hopes of rumbling over the Huskies right out of the gate.

I’m not exactly positive with this one to be honest, but I think the Buckeyes can run all over NIU’s defense, if they execute. Hell, the can run over anyone, but if the offense doesn’t chug along versus a MAC defense, then I don’t know what to tell you.

Pick: Ohio State Team Total Over 49.5

Western Kentucky at Indiana

Time: Saturday (4 ET)

Line: Indiana -1.5, 68

Playing with fire, it’s extremely fun. I love this WKU offense full of fireworks and stars alike, but it’s time for Indiana to finally cut the garbage and rise to the occasion.

For the Hilltoppers, the offense will miss running back Leon Allen, while fellow tailback Anthony Wales (out), cornerback Wonderful Terry (out), and wide receiver Jared Dangerfield (hamstring issue) still remain hindered. Tight end Tyler Higbee and receiver Taywan Taylor will be names to highlight for Saturday’s battle.

Two close calls for the Hoosiers, I’m basing this off of what will happen, not what has. In that case, I’d be draped over Western Kentucky and the points.

Pick: Indiana -1.5

Nebraska at Miami

Time: Saturday (3:30 ET)

Line: Miami -3.5, 57.5

Nice revenge spot here for Al Golden and the Hurricanes. Nebraska taking its first trip down south to the east coast and a determined Brad Kaaya, I’ll lay the points here.

Pick: Miami -3.5

Pittsburgh at Iowa

Time: Saturday (8 ET)

Line: Iowa -5.5, 51.5

Kirk Ferentz is 4-0 against the spread after the rivalry clash with Iowa State. Need I say more? Lots of value here with Pitt, however. I’ll play the trend and cloak my torso with black and yellow paint and sing Wiz Khalifa songs into the night. Wait, isn’t he from Pitt? Oh well.

Pick: Iowa -5.5

Rutgers at Penn State

Time: Saturday (8 ET)

Line: Penn State -10, 45

Rutgers football, sheesh. Allegations, perceived suspensions, arrests, and now Leonte Carroo sidelined for disciplinary action. Team total under, please.

Pick: Rutgers Team Total Under 17.5

UNLV at Michigan

Time: Saturday (12 ET)

Line: Michigan -35.5, 56.5

The rushing offense: it’s back. I witnessed the Wolverines bully Oregon State in regards to the trenches and it should be no different when UNLV strolls into Ann Arbor. 35.5 points is a boat load, but with the Rebels traveling from out west and playing an early start, I look for 5-6 yards a pop on the ground and the defense to feed off of its second half effort from last weekend.

They haven’t been great out of the gate, but the Wolverines should have no problem soaking their feet versus the runt of the west coast litter.

Pick: Michigan First Half -17.5

Who do you like in Week 3? Tweet us your opinion @MaizenBrew