Bovada released its latest odds to win the College Football Playoff this upcoming season, which Michigan was of course included in. The Wolverines are currently getting 18/1 odds from Vegas to win it all in a comeback of sorts for Jim Harbaugh’s team under new quarterback Shea Patterson and a group that returns almost everybody from last season.
Before we get into a few takeaways, here is a list of Bovada’s top contenders:
(Note: For those new to the game, the first number in these odds mean what you would win if you bet the second number. For example, if you placed $4 on Alabama and they win the playoff, you would win $7.)
Odds to Win the 2019 CFP National Championship
Ohio State: 8/1
Penn State: 35/1
Miami (FL): 40/1
Notre Dame: 40/1
Michigan State: 45/1
Florida State: 55/1
Right at the top, it is about as predictable as it gets with Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Georgia leading the charge. Vegas is clearly still high on the Buckeyes despite what is going on with Urban Meyer or perhaps they know that he will still end up coaching this season as everything dies down with that storyline down in Columbus.
Michigan sitting at 18/1 is fine, but that they are ahead of teams like Wisconsin and Michigan State feels a bit shaky, at least from a betting perspective. From a pure “bang for your buck” standpoint, the Badgers at 28/1 and MSU at 45/1 (!!!) provide much better value with two teams that have made some more noise in the conference than Michigan has in recent years.
The MSU odds in particular are what sticks out here. They arguably have the best quarterback in the conference and also return most of their key contributors, plus they have actually been to the CFP since it began (despite getting pantsed by Alabama in the process). Mark Dantonio, sans the 3-9 season a few years ago, always finds a way to outperform projections, so even if you’re a Michigan fan looking to place a wager, 45/1 is insane value. Plus, it is never a good idea to stake your Michigan or home team fandom to a bet. That has bad news written all over it.
Michigan is getting love because it is a brand name with a lot of talent and if all goes well, they certainly can find themselves in the mix to win it all. If you truly believe Patterson is a Heisman candidate and that they will ride him to an undefeated season, 18/1 is a solid number. But from a gambling value standpoint, take Jim Harbaugh’s advice and “avoid it like the plague.”