When Michigan’s Citrus Bowl matchup against Alabama was announced, I think many people were surprised to see the Crimson Tide open as less than a touchdown favorite. Well, the line has moved, and the Tide now have that touchdown advantage that many people probably expected.
Going into Wednesday’s contest, Alabama is now favored by seven points — a number that I personally think still feels too low. Even with backup quarterback Mac Jones starting the game for Alabama, I’m a bit surprised the number isn’t closer to what Vegas gave LSU in their matchup against Oklahoma — around 12 points or so.
Meanwhile, there has been significant movement on the game’s over/under. After opening at 54.5, Vegas now has it set at 58.
That is a pretty high number, but one I’d feel comfortable betting. Bama’s defense isn’t what it’s been in the past, and Michigan’s offense has looked tremendous the back half of the year. If the receivers don’t forget how to catch in the second half against Ohio State, that performance looks a whole lot better for the offensive side of things.
I think this game ends somewhere in the ballpark of 41-27 in favor of the Crimson Tide, so I would take Alabama and the over.