A week ago we wrote about how the Michigan game against Wisconsin was essentially a pick ‘em, though FanDuel favored Wisconsin by 1.5. Sitting here today, it’s obvious that the Wolverines greatly exceeded expectations following their 38-17 thrashing of the Badgers in Camp Randall. Michigan alone almost beat the over/under that was set at just 44.
Next, the Wolverines travel to Lincoln, Nebraska, to take on a Cornhusker team going through a renaissance of sorts. After losing to Illinois in their season opener, Nebraska dispatched Fordham and Buffalo prior to hanging with Oklahoma and taking the now 11th ranked Michigan State to overtime in East Lansing. Despite losing both games, they appear to be headed in the right direction. On Saturday, they dismantled a disappointing Northwestern team 56-7. Maybe Nebraska isn’t bad after all.
DraftKings opens up with Michigan as just a 3.5 point favorite. As of the time of my writing, FanDuel has yet to put out any odds on the game. 3.5 points seems very tight to me. Given the way Michigan played against Wisconsin, I would expect this line to move towards a larger Michigan win throughout the week.
After a shockingly low over/under against Wisconsin, this week we are seeing a much more reasonable 53. The Michigan defense somewhat easily dispatched a bad Wisconsin offense, though Adrian Martinez will provide a different type of test as he is more of a runner than Graham Mertz is.
On the money line, you can get Michigan at -160 which still provides some value for now. As stated earlier, if the line moves throughout the week as I expect it to, there may be less and less value here as time goes by. Nebraska is currently showing at +140.
Across the Big Ten, here’s how the initial Vegas lines look on DraftKings:
- Michigan State is favored by 4 over Rutgers
- Ohio State is favored by 19.5 over Maryland
- Wisconsin is favored by 8 over Illinois
- Iowa is favored by 2 over Penn State in the biggest game of the week
- Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue, and Northwestern are all on byes
As always, please bet responsibly and enjoy every college football Saturday to the fullest!