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ESPN’s FPI made a major change to Michigan football’s projected record after Saturday

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ESPN’s metric is riding the Michigan Hype Train.

NCAA Football: Northern Illinois at Michigan Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

The Michigan Wolverines have looked dominant in almost every phase of the game through the first three games of the 2021 season. There is still a fair amount of work to do, but the 63-10 win over Northern Illinois on Saturday has the buzz continuing to grow. It is impossible to not look ahead to see what could be coming next.

The win and results from other teams on Michigan’s schedule have given ESPN more data points to update its Football Power Index (FPI), which now predicts a 9.6-2.7 record for the Wolverines, which is up a whole win over last week. They came into the season with a 6-6-ish projection from the Worldwide Leader’s metric.

While not a true win-loss projection, Michigan now has a positive chance from FPI of winning every game left on the schedule. That includes the season finale against You Know Who.

Here are the updated chances of victory for each opponent this season.

Sept. 4 — vs. Western Michigan, 47-14 W (1-0)

Sept. 11 — vs. Washington, 31-10 W (2-0)

Sept. 18 — vs. Northern Illinois, 63-10 W (3-0)

Sept. 25 — vs. Rutgers, 87.1% projected chance of victory

Oct. 2 — at No. 18 Wisconsin, 61.5% projected chance of victory

Oct. 9 — at Nebraska, 71.2% projected chance of victory

Oct. 23 — vs. Northwestern, 93.6% projected chance of victory

Oct. 30 — at Michigan State, 55.1% projected chance of victory

Nov. 6 — vs. Indiana, 88.9% projected chance of victory

Nov. 13 — at No. 10 Penn State, 50% projected chance of victory

Nov. 20 — at Maryland, 80.3% projected chance of victory

Nov. 27 — vs. No. 9 Ohio State, 53.7% projected chance of victory

For reference, here were the FPI percentages from last week.

This is obviously not the gospel seeing as games are played on the field and not on the computer, but three weeks of data has Michigan stacking up more favorably than some may have previously thought. Of course, we have all been down this road before. They have to show it and keep performing.

Michigan’s non-conference slate is over and they will kick into Big Ten gear starting next weekend. The first opponent comes in the form of Rutgers, who is also off to a 3-0 start. Kickoff for Saturday’s homecoming game in Ann Arbor is set for 3:30 p.m. ET.