Betting the Big Ten: Week 9

Week 8 was our best week yet on Betting the Big Ten! Ohio State covered the over/under all by itself against Iowa. Penn State was the easiest bet of the week, and even Wisconsin and Purdue smashed the over.

All in all, we were nearly undefeated, going 4-1 on the week. Who says we can’t run the table this week?

Here’s what’s in store for this week. All lines courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Ohio State (-15.5) at Penn State, O/U 61, Noon

Ohio State has been an overs machine this season, but Penn State’s defense is better suited to slow down an elite passing offense like the Buckeyes have as opposed to an elite rushing offense that Michigan possesses. That scares me away from the over. Head-to-head, in the last five matchups the Buckeyes have won all five but only covered in one. Penn State always plays Ohio State tight, especially at home. Give me Ohio State to win, but Penn State to cover.

The pick: Penn State +15.5

Rutgers at Minnesota (-14), O/U 40.5, 2:30 p.m.

To me, this matchup entirely comes down to the health of Tanner Morgan. I’m terrified to take the Gophers and lay the points on the chance Morgan doesn’t play. The offense just didn’t look good without him last Saturday at Penn State. With Morgan, I don’t see how Rutgers stays within striking distance. I’ll play it conservative and go with the under. Hopefully Minnesota plays it slow with a heavy dose of Mo Ibrahim.

The pick: Under 40.5

Illinois (-7.5) at Nebraska, O/U 50.5, 3:30 p.m.

Illinois has gone under in three of its last five. Nebraska has gone under in three of its last four. You would think the under would make sense in this matchup, right? Think again. Head-to-head, these two programs have scored a combined 89, 80, 64 and 52 points in the last four matchups respectively. In a game that ends under the lights on a surprisingly warm fall night in Lincoln, expect some offensive fireworks.

The pick: Over 50.5

Northwestern at Iowa (-11), O/U 37.5, 3:30 p.m.

Head-to-head, these teams have hit the under in five consecutive years. That’s all you need to know. I don’t envy anyone who has to watch this game unfold.

The pick: Under 37.5

Michigan State at Michigan (-23), O/U 55, 7:30 p.m.

This 23-point spread is pretty big, and it’s certainly enough to give me pause. However, from a pure X’s and O’s standpoint, I just don’t see how MSU holds up. The Spartan offensive line is not good and will likely have no running game to speak of. Defensively, I thoroughly expect Michigan State to load the box and force Michigan to pass the ball. I can’t envision MSU’s secondary keeping up with Roman Wilson, Ronnie Bell and Cornelius Johnson. I don’t feel great about laying the points, but I’ve got to pull the trigger.

The pick: Michigan -23

As always, please bet responsibly.