In Week 12, we had a horrible noon slate, as we went 1-3 and none of the three misses were particularly close. However, in the afternoon we went 3-0 thanks to Ohio State and Maryland both forgetting how to play defense, Penn State continuing its trend of thrashing Rutgers, and Iowa simply being Iowa.
In total, we went 4-3 on the week for the second week in a row. Here’s what’s in store for the biggest weekend of the year. All lines courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Nebraska at Iowa (-10.5), O/U 38.5, 4 p.m. Friday
Both these teams have hit the under in eight of their 11 games this season. Additionally, Nebraska has hit the under in its last four games while Iowa has hit the under in its last three. However, head-to-head in the last five years, the minimum amount of total points between these two teams was 46. I don’t know what it is about this “rivalry” but it tends to be relatively high-scoring, despite how bad the offenses may look.
The pick: Over 38.5
Rutgers at Maryland (-14), O/U 49, Noon Saturday
Maryland was 4-2 at covering the spread before failing to cover in four consecutive games. However, I think the Terps may have found something last weekend against Ohio State. On the flip side, the wheels have fallen off a bit for Rutgers as it has lost four consecutive games and failed to cover in three of those four. Fourteen is a lot of points but I have faith in the Maryland offense.
The pick: Maryland -14
Illinois (-14.5) at Northwestern, O/U 38, 3:30 p.m.
Northwestern has been very good when the weather is bad. When the weather is good, not so much. The Wildcats don’t have much of a passing game and rely on their running game to get the job done. As Michigan saw last weekend, Illinois is stout against the run. Being on the road doesn’t matter much when it’s Ryan Field. Give me the Fighting Illini.
The pick: Illinois -14.5
Minnesota at Wisconsin (-3.5), O/U 36, 3:30 p.m.
Similar to Nebraska vs. Iowa, both of these teams are on streaks of unders (Minnesota at four and Wisconsin at three). However, the head-to-head shows another picture with the under hitting in four of the last five, but all those marks being set well above 36. The under is tempting but 36 is just too small for me. A whopping 73% of the public money is on Minnesota so I’ll stick with the general public.
The pick: Minnesota +3.5
Purdue (-10.5) at Indiana, O/U 54, 3:30 p.m.
Both teams have struggled to cover the spread, going 4-7 each on the season so far. However, Purdue is 4-1 at hitting the over while on the road while Indiana is 4-2 at hitting the over at home. The total of 54 is quite high, but I’m just grateful it isn’t over 56.
The pick: Over 54
Michigan State at Penn State (-18.5), O/U 53, 4 p.m.
To me, this is the easiest pick of the week. Penn State has played very well of late, covering the spread in each of the past five. However, Michigan State has everything to play for as it needs a win in order to get bowl eligible. Additionally, James Franklin has a penchant for blowing games late in the season they have no business losing. Penn State is clearly the superior team, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Spartans not only cover, but win outright. For the purposes of this article, I’ll be conservative and take the Spartans with the points.
The pick: Michigan State +18.5
Michigan at Ohio State (-7.5), O/U 56.5, Noon
Last, but certainly not least, we have The Game. A week ago, I was ready to proclaim I thought Michigan would win outright. Post-injury plagued Illinois game, now I’m not so sure. Blake Corum’s health plays a monstrous factor in the outcome of this game. Historical trends point to the over, as it has hit in each of the last four years. However, Ohio State’s defense has shown a bit of progress and the weather could play a factor.
At the end of the day, I love I can get more than seven points with Michigan. I’m still very much up in the air on who wins this game outright, so the best decision is to take the points no matter who has them.
The pick: Michigan +7.5
As always, please bet responsibly. Go Blue!