Betting the Big Ten: Week 10

Week 9 of Betting the Big Ten was highlighted by a terrifying, late-game back and forth between the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes. Luckily, we came out on the right end of it. On the flip side, Michigan oh so narrowly missed covering and I got greedy on Iowa unders.

On the week, we went 2-3 but with the way Penn State vs. Ohio State went, I’m considering that pretty fortunate.

Here’s what’s in store for this week. All lines courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Ohio State (-38) at Northwestern, O/U 57.5, Noon

Everything in me wants to take the over here. Ohio State is 6-2 on overs this season and Northwestern is 4-1 on overs when it is the underdog. However, the weather forecast shows a high chance of rain and some heavy winds. The last time the Wildcats faced adverse weather, they lost to Penn State but held it close, losing 17-7. Northwestern won’t pull off the shocker here but give me the cats to cover.

The pick: Northwestern +38

Minnesota (-16) at Nebraska, O/U 46.5, Noon

Minnesota hasn’t played well of late, losing three of its last four. However, with Tanner Morgan healthy again against Rutgers, it handily won, 31-0. As a favorite, the Golden Gophers are 5-2 against the spread while Nebraska is 1-4 ATS at home. I don’t love laying 16 points, but I wholeheartedly believe Nebraska will struggle to score on Minnesota.

The pick: Minnesota -16

Iowa at Purdue (-4.5), O/U 41, Noon

This is the easiest pick of the week in my opinion. Purdue has gone over in six of eight games this season. Iowa’s defense, while still very good, has proven it can’t stop the upper echelon of Big Ten offenses — Michigan scored 27 on them and Ohio State (albeit on some short fields) scored 54. The over/under of 41 just feels like an absurdly low number for any game involving the Purdue Boilermakers.

The pick: Over 41

Maryland at Wisconsin (-5), O/U 50, Noon

I don’t have any idea why Wisconsin is favored in this game; in my eyes, Maryland is the far superior team. However, this rat line is enough to scare me away. Despite potentially rough weather, I’ll take the over in this one. For what it’s worth, the weather isn’t supposed to be as bad in Madison as it is in Evanston.

The pick: Over 50

Penn State (-14) at Indiana, O/U 50.5, 3:30 p.m.

In the previous two matchups between these teams in Bloomington, both games were decided by five points or less and the over hit in both. With Penn State now out of the national picture, it will be interesting to see how it rebounds, or if it falters down the stretch. Given the history here and the chance Penn State hands the reins over to its true-freshman backup quarterback, I’ll take Indiana to keep it within striking distance.

The pick: Indiana +14

Michigan State at Illinois (-17.5), O/U 41.5, 3:30 p.m.

Following the events that transpired in Ann Arbor last week, I was excited to jump on here and bet Illinois, hoping the spread would be a modest two possessions, but 17.5 was more than I bargained for. However, Illinois is 6-2 ATS this season and 4-1 at home. With a chance of rain in Champaign on Saturday, that favors the team that runs the ball better, which is undoubtedly Illinois. The Fighting Illini have everything to play for while Michigan State will be without eight players due to suspension. Give me Illinois.

The pick: Illinois -17.5

Michigan (-26) at Rutgers, O/U 45, 7:30 p.m.

In shocking news to no one, Rutgers is not very good this year. With Michigan’s renewed focus on red zone efficiency this week, I expect touchdowns early and often from the Wolverines. This leaves us with two options: Michigan laying the points or hitting the over. On the season, Michigan is 1-6-1 on over/unders overall and 0-2 on the road, while Rutgers is 3-5. This leans me towards the spread.

The pick: Michigan -26

As always, please bet responsibly.