Week 13 was our best week to date! Michigan, Maryland and Illinois not only won, but covered easily. Minnesota also won outright. Our only losses were Michigan State by a half a point and the Purdue/Indiana over. In total, we went 5-2 on the week. What a great way to end the regular season.
This week, with the Big Ten schedule all but complete, we’ll take a look at the conference championship games across all of college football.
All lines courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
North Texas vs. UTSA (-9), O/U 69, 7:30 p.m. Friday
The C-USA Championship features two teams from the great state of Texas. Earlier this year, UTSA was favored by 10 but only defeated North Texas by four, 31-27. Both these teams put up massive amounts of points, but 69 is just too high for me to go over and feel confident. Give me North Texas to cover once again in the Alamodome.
The pick: North Texas +9
Utah vs. USC (-3), O/U 68, 8 p.m. Friday
USC has been an over’s machine this year, hitting 9-of-12. If you’ve watched the Trojans play at all this year, you can understand why. However, Utah is only 6-6 at going over. When they played each other earlier this year, the Utes pulled off the upset in an instant classic in Utah, 43-42. USC has everything to play for along with revenge on the brain. Give me the Trojans.
The pick: USC -3
Kansas State vs. TCU (-2.5), O/U 61.5, Noon Saturday
Both teams have been excellent against the spread this year; Kansas State is 9-3 while TCU is 9-2-1. At hitting the over, the Wildcats are 3-1 as an underdog, while the Horned Frogs are 6-4 as the favorite. The point total of 61.5 seems like a lot, but these two teams scored 66 against each other back in October.
The pick: Over 61.5
Toledo (-2) vs. Ohio, O/U 55, Noon
According to the Action Network, 67% of the money on this game has come in on Ohio. Since Thanksgiving, this line has moved from Toledo -5 to Toledo -2 with no signs of stopping. The Bobcats are also 9-3 at covering the spread. This one seems obvious to me.
The pick: Ohio +2
Coastal Carolina vs. Troy (-8.5), O/U 48, 3:30 p.m.
This is the trickiest pick of the week for me. The line has shifted from six, up all the way to 11, and has now settled back down at 8.5. No real trends stand out for either team against the over/under. Where I’m hanging my hat is on red zone efficiency. Coastal Carolina’s defense is 38th nationally while Troy’s offense is a measly 114th. Conversely, Troy’s defense is ranked 61st nationally in red zone efficiency while Coastal’s offense is a poor 119th. Both teams could struggle to convert, which leads me to the under.
The pick: Under 48
UCF vs. Tulane (-3.5), O/U 57, 4 p.m.
A whopping 75% of the money is on the favorite Tulane so far, and with good reason. Tulane is 10-2 against the spread and 8-2 as a favorite. UCF is no slouch, going 7-5 against the spread and surprising Tulane earlier this season in a 38-31 upset. Give me Tulane to cover in a revenge game of sorts.
The pick: Tulane -3.5
Fresno State vs. Boise State (-3), O/U 53.5, 4 p.m.
In their head-to-head matchup earlier this year, Boise State was favored by 10.5 and ended up winning by 20, 40-20. The fact this spread is only three makes me incredibly suspicious. At home, Boise State is 5-1 at hitting the over while Fresno State is 4-2 on the road. On the smurf turf in Boise, I’ll take all the points I can get.
The pick: Over 53.5
LSU vs. Georgia (-17.5), O/U 51, 4 p.m.
A week ago, I would have loved LSU with the points here. With a potential playoff spot on the line for the Tigers, and the Bulldogs with not much to play for (relatively speaking), I expected LSU to come out with its hair on fire. Instead, Texas A&M ended any playoff hopes for LSU with a huge upset last weekend. I expect Georgia to roll here, but LSU to put up some garbage time points to keep it respectable.
The pick: Over 51
Clemson (-7.5) vs. North Carolina, O/U 63, 8 p.m.
Prior to Clemson’s loss to South Carolina, this game might have had CFP implications. Instead, there isn’t much on the line as the ACC will be shutout from the playoff entirely. I’d feel much better about this one if Clemson was only favored by 6.5, but I just don’t trust the Tar Heels to keep this one close.
The pick: Clemson -7.5
Purdue vs. Michigan (-17), O/U 52, 8 p.m.
The large spread was not entirely a surprise following Michigan’s demolishing of Ohio State and Purdue’s luck of the draw in the Big Ten West. Last year, the Wolverines had no trouble dispatching the Iowa Hawkeyes in a Big Ten coronation. This year, I expect Purdue to put up a better fight. While I still expect Michigan to win with relative ease, I don’t expect Harbaugh to keep any of his injured starters in beyond what they’re absolutely necessary for. Michigan will get out to a moderate lead early and then sit on the lead late.
The pick: Under 52
As always, please bet responsibly.