Although Michigan mauled Hawaii late Saturday night — compiling an impressive 42-0 lead by the half — ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) shows a slight dip in the odds of victory for the Wolverines against key Big Ten foes.
Despite Iowa’s tough loss to in-state rival Iowa State, Michigan’s chances of winning in Iowa City for the first time since 2005 dropped from 83.9% to 82.7%. Similarly, ESPN cut the Maize and Blue’s odds of winning back the Paul Bunyan Trophy from Michigan State from 74.5% to 68.3%. Odds against Penn State also fell from 73% to 68.2%.
Such is the variance in early season projections — just ask Texas A&M.
That said, Michigan holds steady at No. 5 overall in the FPI rankings, with the third-highest overall efficiency rating in the nation (seventh in offensive and sixth in defensive categories, respectively).
Take a look at the updated projections below:
Sept. 17 Connecticut: 99.3% chance of winning
Sept. 24 Maryland: 82.0% chance of winning
Oct. 1 at Iowa: 82.7% chance of winning
Oct. 8 at Indiana: 90.2% chance of winning
Oct. 15 Penn State: 68.2% chance of winning
Oct. 29 Michigan State: 68.3% chance of winning
Nov. 5 at Rutgers: 85.6% chance of winning
Nov. 12 Nebraska: 91.9% chance of winning
Nov. 19 Illinois: 90.9% chance of winning
Nov. 26 at Ohio State: 20.5% chance of winning