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ESPN’s updated FPI projections for Michigan after Week 4

Michigan sees a dip in its odds for most Big Ten games.

Maryland v Michigan Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Michigan’s start to the Big Ten season was a rocky one. In no uncertain terms, the Wolverines did not look like the well-oiled machined that demolished their non-conference opponents. One can point the finger at the step-up in competition — and the “want-to” of the Terrapins — for the lackluster showing. Although the Wolverines maintained the No. 4 spot in the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI), they will have to step up their game as the Big Ten schedule carries on.

Outside the Oct. 29 matchup against Michigan State, Michigan saw a drop in odds of victory for all its other games. The most notable dip in odds was next week’s pivotal matchup against Iowa (from an 83.6% chance to win to 76.8%). The Hawkeyes boast a stingy and prolific defense which, once again, scored most of their points in a road win versus Rutgers. J.J. McCarthy and company will need to reprise at least some of their early season rhythm to give Jim Harbaugh his first win ever — as either a player or a coach — in the state of Iowa.

If Michigan can avoid mistakes on offense and have something resembling a pulse on defense, the Maize and Blue should exit with a victory and a boost in next week’s FPI.

Let’s take a look at the numbers:

Oct. 1 at Iowa: 76.8% chance of winning

Oct. 8 at Indiana: 90.1% chance of winning

Oct. 15 Penn State: 64.0% chance of winning

Oct. 29 Michigan State: 83.2% chance of winning

Nov. 5 at Rutgers: 91.0% chance of winning

Nov. 12 Nebraska: 95.3% chance of winning

Nov. 19 Illinois: 89.5% chance of winning

Nov. 26 at Ohio State: 21.2% chance of winning