ESPN recently updated their 2022 Football Power Index (FPI), which calculates strength of schedule, predicts where teams will finish/rank and provides a percentage for conference titles and national championships. Last year, the FPI indicators became a rallying cry for the Wolverines when Michigan was given a 2% chance to win the Big Ten Conference and a 0% chance to reach the College Football Playoff (CFP).
While Michigan is given substantially more respect this season, bulletin board material will always be present.
College Football Playoff Odds
The Wolverines are given a 14.8% chance of making the CFP, a 4.2% chance to make the National Championship and a 1.3% chance to win it all. All of which are good enough for the seventh-best odds, respectively. Compared to last year’s 0% chance to make the CFP, any odds for Michigan are an improvement.
Top Seven CFP Odds: Ohio State (82.3%), Alabama (79.3%), Georgia (73.5), Clemson (59.0%), Texas (21.0%), Notre Dame (17.6), and Michigan (14.8)
Top Seven National Championship Game Odds: Alabama (51.6%), Ohio State (50.0%), Georgia (42.9%), Clemson (25.9%), Texas (6.9%), Notre Dame (5.7%), and Michigan (4.2%)
Top Seven National Champion Odds: Alabama (30.1%), Ohio State (27.4%), Georgia (22.7%), Clemson (11.1%), Texas (2.3%), Notre Dame (1.8%), Michigan (1.3%)
Notable Big Ten Odds: Penn State (3.8%, 0.9%, and 0.2%), Michigan State (1.8%, 0.4%, and 0.1%)
Big Ten Championship Odds
While higher than 2%, Michigan’s odd to win the Big Ten may not be as high as you think. FPI gives the Wolverines a 7.2% to win the Big Ten and 9.9% chance to win the Big Ten East. Both marks are good for second-best, only trailing the Buckeyes. Ohio State is given a 73.6% chance to win the conference and a 79.7% chance to win the East.
In Order (Conference Odds, Division Odds):
Ohio State (73.6%, 79.7%), Michigan (7.3%, 9.9%), Wisconsin (4.7%, 28.9%), Penn State (4.3%, 6.6%), Nebraska (3.5%, 29.2%), Michigan State (2.2%, 3.5%), Iowa (1.7%, 13.9%), Minnesota (1.4%, 14.2%), Purdue (1.3%, 13%), Maryland (0.2%, 0.4%), Northwestern (0.0%, 0.3%), and Indiana, Rutgers and Illinois are all given 0.0% chances for both.
Strength of Schedule and Projected Finish
Michigan’s 2022 schedule is one of the most favorable in the Big Ten, coming in at the eighth-hardest in the conference and No. 31 nationally. The Wolverines are one of only seven teams scheduled to play eight home games, but they will have two critical road tests at Iowa and Ohio State.
The Wolverines are projected to finish No. 7 in the country with 9.5 wins and 2.6 losses.
Top Ten Finishing Projections (FPI Score): Alabama (28.9), Ohio State (28.3), Georgia (27.4), Clemson (23.2), Notre Dame (17.5), Texas (17.4), Michigan (16.5), Oklahoma (15.6), Pittsburgh (14.6), and Auburn (13.9)