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Daily Brews: Michigan football’s blue-chip ratio still among the top in the country

According to this model, 15 teams can win it all every season.

By AndrewBailey
/ new
Playoff Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl - Georgia v Michigan Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images

The 2022 season is almost upon us and every team is currently 0-0. Coaches everywhere are preparing their August camp “Why not us?” speeches, and belief is inundating campuses from Connecticut to California. While technically, every Power 5 team has a chance, a simple formula suggests only an elite tier realistically can win it all.

247Sports writer Bud Elliott has popularized the blue-chip ratio, which compares the number of four- and five-star recruits on a team’s roster to the number of two- and three-star recruits. Simply, the higher the number of four- and five-stars equals a higher chance of contending for a national championship.

Since the blue-chip ratio’s inception in 2013, it has become a widely used tool to identify the top 10% of teams in college football according to talent. The list takes in consideration the last four recruiting classes entering the season and since 2011 (the first year the previous four recruiting classes could be thoroughly tracked), no team under a 52% blue-chip ratio has won the national championship.

Previous National Champions and their Blue-Chip Ratio

  • 2021 - Georgia - 80%
  • 2020 - Alabama - 83%
  • 2019 - LSU - 64%
  • 2018 - Clemson - 61%
  • 2017 - Alabama - 80%
  • 2016 - Clemson - 52%
  • 2015 - Alabama - 77%
  • 2014 - Ohio State - 68%
  • 2013 - Florida State - 53%
  • 2012 - Alabama - 71%
  • 2011 - Alabama - 71%

Blue-chip ratio is not a guaranteed measurement of success and some team will probably burst through at some point to break the formula. But for now, these are the 15 teams that can win a national championship in 2022.

The Contenders

  1. Alabama (89%)
  2. Ohio State (80%)
  3. Georgia (77%)
  4. Oklahoma (71%)
  5. Texas A&M (70%)
  6. Texas (68%)
  7. LSU (66%)
  8. Clemson (63%)
  9. Notre Dame (62%)
  10. Florida (60%)
  11. Oregon (60%)
  12. Michigan (59%)
  13. Penn State (55%)
  14. Miami (55%)
  15. Auburn (54%)

This number is actually higher for the Wolverines than last year when they were at 58%, even though they had a higher ranking (No. 10) nationally last season.

The blue-chip ratio is a great way to separate the contenders and pretenders, but is in no way absolute. I could list somewhere between 42 and 27 specific reasons as to why there will always be variability within the ratio.

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