Maize n Brew - Selection Sunday: four-seed Michigan to play South Dakota StA Michigan Wolverine communityhttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/49241/mb-fv.png2013-03-24T11:46:01-05:00http://www.maizenbrew.com/rss/stream/38800652013-03-24T11:46:01-05:002013-03-24T11:46:01-05:00Kansas-UNC: Waiting on UM's Sweet 16 Opponent
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<figcaption>USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Michigan won early yesterday and gets to celebrate for a bit while awaiting next Friday's matchup that will be determined today at 5:15 when Kansas and UNC face off in Kansas City, MO. If you're watching the game, check out our handy guide.</p> <h4><b>(1) Kansas 30-5 (14-4)</b></h4>
<p><b>Bad Losses:</b> TCU(!)</p>
<p><b>Good Wins:</b> @Ohio State, vs. St. Louis, KSU (x2), @Okla St, Iowa St (x2)</p>
<p><b>Kenpom vitals:</b> Ninth overall in Kenpom's composite rankings, 111.6 ORtg, (29th), 86.1 DRtg (7th), 41.3 eFG% (1st)</p>
<p><b>Dangermen: </b><a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/53330/jeff-withey" class="sbn-auto-link">Jeff Withey</a> - the seven-footer is sixth nationally in block percentage, shoots 57 percent from two and 70 percent from the line. <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/145556/ben-mclemore" class="sbn-auto-link">Ben McLemore</a> - wing leads the team in scoring with 16.2 ppg and shoots 56/44/87. <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/174425/perry-ellis" class="sbn-auto-link">Perry Ellis</a> - frosh bench player that cracks 20% usage rate when he is on the court.</p>
<p><b>The game: </b> The Jayhawks are a defense first team that uses length (36th in eff. height) to challenge shooters and block shots. This keeps KU at the head of the class in eFG% (41.3), 2pt% (39.0), 3rd in Blk% (17.9), and 7th in adj Def (86.1).</p>
<p>On the other side of the ball, Kansas has a balanced offensive attack that attacks inside (277th in 3PA/FGA) with a lot of success (52.8 2pt%, 16th nationally; 40.4 FTA/FGA, 61st nationally).</p>
<p><b>Fear level:</b> High. The Jayhawks are a big team that can pound the ball inside on offense and affect shots on defense. Michigan has struggled against these kinds of opponents this year, and while <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/175045/mitch-mcgary" class="sbn-auto-link">Mitch McGary</a> has improved, it may not be enough to deal with Jeff Withey for 40 minutes.</p>
<h4>(8) UNC 25-10 (12-6)</h4>
<p><b>Bad losses: </b>@Texas, @ NC State</p>
<p><b>Good wins:</b> vs. UNLV, vs. UVA, vs. NC State, vs Villanova</p>
<p><b>Kenpom vitals: </b>25th in Kenpom's composite rankings, 112.7 ORtg (25th), 93.1 DRtg (48th), 17.3 TO% (36th), 1.23 yrs avg experience (301st).</p>
<p><b>Dangermen: </b>James McAdoo - 6'9 post player one of three averaging 14 ppg, low eFG% (45.1) and high shot percentage (27.0). <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/124043/reggie-bullock" class="sbn-auto-link">Reggie Bullock</a> - wing shoots 56/44/76, averages 14 ppg, and has team's lowest TO%. PJ Hairston - efficient, high-usage scorer that shoots 49/39/78 and averages 14 ppg, also the best wing threat to draw fouls at 4.7 drawn per 40 minutes.</p>
<p><b>The game: </b>The Tarheels play fast. With an average of 70.6 possessions per game, UNC is 18th in adj tempo. They manage this by rebounding at a decent rate (34.8 OR%, 58.8 DR%), holding on to the ball, and finding players in transition for easy baskets (UNC has an assist rate of 60.5%, 36th in the nation).</p>
<p>Defensively they do a good job forcing turnovers (Stl% 11.2 is 73rd, TO% forced is 21.2, 100th) without fouling (opp. FTA/FGA 26.8). There are no glaring weaknesses, but also no areas UNC particularly dominates.</p>
<p><b>Fear level: </b>Moderate. UNC is a classic case of a team that beats teams it is supposed to and loses to ones it isn't, Against Kenpom top 50 teams, UNC has just seven wins in 16 tries, including 0-5 against teams in the top-15. The Tarheels aren't physically imposing, and Michigan has shown an affinity for opening things up. This is still a talented team, but if you expect Roy Williams to out coach John Beilein, I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.</p>
https://www.maizenbrew.com/2013/3/24/4141672/ncaa-tournament-2013-kansas-carolina-michigan-sweet-sixteenZach Travis2013-03-22T15:42:32-05:002013-03-22T15:42:32-05:00Round 2, Michigan-VCU: A different kind of fight
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<img alt="VCU's Briante Weber averages 2.7 steals per game. " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/77RgiBqJjAJhvKXuWbvKg8TfATY=/0x0:4000x2667/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/10245541/164255563.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>VCU's Briante Weber averages 2.7 steals per game. | Gregory Shamus</figcaption>
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<p>Michigan takes on the tenacious VCU Rams and their full-court, havoc-wreaking press. The Wolverines have not seen a press so well-executed since last season's Arkansas game; then again, VCU has not seen a player as talented as Trey Burke. </p> <p style="font-size: 20pt;"><b>Exposition </b></p>
<p>Despite a somewhat shaky first half for the Wolverines against South Dakota State, the second half was prolific enough for Michigan to run away with a 15-point victory (CALLED IT, I AM NOSTRADAMUS). <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/101126/nate-wolters">Nate Wolters</a>, whose name you had probably read a hundred times in the past several days, shot just 3/14 from the field (0/5 from three) en route to a 10-point effort, not nearly enough for the Jackrabbits to pull off the upset.</p>
<p>Even more impressive is the fact that Michigan got the win with Burke having his weakest game, offensively, in quite some time, going 2/12 from the field for six points; however, he did dish out seven assists.</p>
<p>This time, Michigan faces a 40-minutes-of-hell squad in Shaka Smart's VCU Rams. The Rams and their "havoc" brand of basketball will test Michigan's ball-handling, which even now can be somewhat shaky when the ball isn't in Burke's hands. All you need to do is remember Michigan's <a href="http://espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=320210008">visit to Arkansas last season</a> to see what can happen when you let the press ambush you in the game's opening minutes.</p>
<p>The Razorbacks jumped out to a 29-10 lead in the game's first ten minutes, and although the Wolverines rallied back, a <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/145685/trey-burke">Trey Burke</a> iso three-ball away from victory, Michigan spent the entire game attempting to come back, not an ideal scenario no matter who you are or what style you play.</p>
<p>If Michigan goes down by 19 in this game, it is extremely unlikely that they'll be able to claw their way back into it like they did in Fayetteville last January.</p>
<p style="font-size: 20pt;"><b>The Opponent </b></p>
<p><b></b>The fifth seed Rams come into this game with a 27-8 (12-4) record. Despite getting <a href="http://espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=330760139">knocked off by Saint Louis</a> in the A-10 title game, the Rams still had another tremendous season, their losses coming against: Wichita State, Duke, Missouri, Richmond, La Salle, Temple and Saint Louis (twice).</p>
<p>So, they can certainly be beaten, and there's no need for Michigan to be shaking in its boots. However, it won't be easy, especially if Michigan is not prepared for the intensity the Rams will bring to the floor.</p>
<p>VCU boasts a quartet of double-digit scorers in 6'5'' <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/146416/treveon-graham">Treveon Graham</a> (15.2 ppg), 6'9'' <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/124592/juvonte-reddic">Juvonte Reddic</a> (14.6 ppg), 6'4'' <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/100333/troy-daniels">Troy Daniels</a> (12.4 ppg) and 6'2'' <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/124593/rob-brandenberg">Rob Brandenberg</a> (10.5 ppg).</p>
<p><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/174687/melvin-johnson">Melvin Johnson</a>, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/100332/darius-theus">Darius Theus</a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/146414/briante-weber">Briante Weber</a> are the other three guys logging big minutes, all 6'3'' guards/defensive piranhas. When the press begins to work and there's blood in the water, either Theus or Weber are likely around for the steal; they average 2.7 and 2.5 steals per game, respectively.</p>
<p>As you would expect, the Rams lead the nation in turnovers forced per game (19.9). Although it was a blowout against an Akron team missing its starting point guard, the five Rams picked up two steals in Thursday's opening round matchup. If <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/124097/aaron-craft">Aaron Craft</a> is a Tyrannosaurus rex of defense then VCU is most definitely the hypercoordinated raptors.</p>
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<p style="text-align: center; "><i>VCU Rams set up the full-court press</i></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">And that is my cue to include this <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0107290/quotes">surprisingly relevant quote</a> from Dr. Alan Grant:</p>
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<p style="text-align: left;">A turkey, huh? OK, try to imagine yourself in the Cretaceous Period. You get your first look at this "six foot turkey" as you enter a clearing. He moves like a bird, lightly, bobbing his head. And you keep still because you think that maybe his visual acuity is based on movement like T-Rex - he'll lose you if you don't move. But no, not Velociraptor. You stare at him, and he just stares right back. And that's when the attack comes. Not from the front, but from the side, from the other two raptors you didn't even know were there.</p>
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<p>If Michigan (i.e. Trey Burke) attempt to dribble its way out of the press, they will be playing into the Rams' hands (or claws). Speed of thought and action will be the name of the game; hold the ball or dribble it a few too many times and you're raptor food. Other than the whole "not moving" part, attacking the VCU press will be not unlike that kitchen scene from Jurassic Park.</p>
<p>Offensively, the Rams naturally get much of it from their defense. However, Graham, Brandenberg and Theus are all solid three-point shooters (36%, 36%, 34%), and Troy Daniels is deadly, shooting 41% on 299 attempts, by far the most on the team. He led VCU with 23 points and shot 6/11 from downtown in yesterday's 46-point victory against Akron.</p>
<p style="font-size: 20pt;"><b>The Gameplan</b></p>
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<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;"><b>DON'T PANIC. </b>The name of this game is fairly simple. If Michigan can get through the first 5-10 minutes without the Rams sticking them with an unwieldy deficit, the odds of victory will skyrocket. Once again, Arkansas game yada yada yada. VCU has quickness, a well-studied system and some guys who can shoot the three. This is a deadly combination in concert, but it isn't without its weaknesses. Also, VCU has played some very good teams this season, but none of them had Trey Burke. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;"><b>Burke, you're driving. </b>Part of me thinks that Michigan should run on 100% of VCU misses, but another part of me says that maybe the Wolverines shouldn't be playing to that pace (think early on in the Indiana game at Crisler). In short, it has to be up to Burke's judgment. Are you sensing a theme here? If Michigan wins this one, it will be because of Burke; if he scores six points, Michigan is likely not winning this game. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;"><b>Half court game. </b>As weird as it is to say, if Michigan makes this a Big Ten game and not a VCU game, they will win this relatively comfortably (i.e. 6-8 points). Michigan put up its best defensive performance yesterday since the Michigan State victory at home. If the Wolverines can force VCU to get into its half court sets and expend energy on that end, advantage Michigan. Of course, everything will follow from how Michigan handles the press in the opening minutes, which is part of what makes a well-executed press such a dangerous thing. </span></li>
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<div style="font-size: 20pt;"><b>Miscellaneous Stats </b></div>
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<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;"><b>True, the Rams are a guard-oriented</b>, speedy squad of raptors, but Reddic can do some work in the paint; he's <a href="http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/player/virginia-commonwealth/juvonte-reddic">10th nationally and first in the A-10</a> in offensive rebounds. It seems like this is a guy that Michigan could use <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/99677/jordan-morgan">Jordan Morgan</a> to check, but it appears <a href="http://www.mlive.com/wolverines/index.ssf/2013/03/jordan_morgan_demoted_to_michi.html">he has been Vogrich'd</a>. Against VCU, though, rolling with <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/123898/jon-horford">Jon Horford</a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/175045/mitch-mcgary">Mitch McGary</a> again is likely a wise call. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;"><b>As a team</b>, VCU hits a <a href="http://statsheet.com/mcb/teams/virginia-commonwealth/team_stats?type=all">solid 35.5% from three</a>. However, the real story is that they're 8th nationally in attempts and 10th in three-pointers made. They will certainly look to find those open shooters spotting up after the havoc of the press has done its job and secured a turnover. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;"><b>Rebounding. </b>The Rams are a great offensive rebounding team, <a href="http://statsheet.com/mcb/teams/virginia-commonwealth/team_stats?type=all">29th in the nation</a> in offensive rebounding percentage (37.1%). On the other end, they're not so great, with a defensive rebounding percentage of 65.4% (296th nationally). If Michigan can get into the half court, McGary and Horford should have a field day. I'm not saying it will look like Payne and Nix rebounding against Michigan, but they should be able to get some put-backs. </span></li>
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<div style="font-size: 20pt;"><b>Ending Thoughts, Predictions, Etc. </b></div>
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<div>VCU <a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/mar/21/vcu-opens-rout-arkon-behind-troy-daniels-juvonte-r/">delivered a historic rout</a> on Thursday, albeit against a short-handed Akron squad. The Rams play an intense style of ball that eviscerates teams without composure, leadership or basketball smarts.</div>
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<div>It is reductive, but this game comes down to, in large part, how Michigan handles the press in the opening minutes. Teams like VCU are built to jump on you in the opening minutes and slowly squeeze the life out of you like a boa constrictor with a predilection for basketball.</div>
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<div>Michigan can't afford another poor day from the field for Burke (not that it needed a great day against SDSU), but I have a hard time imagining Burke putting up consecutive single-digit scoring games.</div>
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<div>I imagine (and sort of hope) that we will see a lot of the Spike Albrecht-Burke lineup. Michigan will need Spike's underrated confidence when attempting to break the VCU press. I do worry about what happens when <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/123897/tim-hardaway-jr">Tim Hardaway Jr</a>. has the ball in the back court, as his handle still doesn't exactly inspire confidence. However, if THJ can limit the turnovers and Burke can trust his teammates to make the right plays, Michigan should be fine.</div>
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<div>This game could go either way, really, which I suppose you could say for a significant majority of games in this tournament. I could see Michigan reprising that Arkansas game tomorrow afternoon, but I could also see them come out firing, looking like the team that was ranked No. 1 in the land on more than one occasion.</div>
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<div>Michigan is not a team without flaws, to be sure, but the press itself, as vaunted as VCU's may be, can be beaten. For the first time in a long, long time, Michigan makes it past the first weekend.</div>
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<div style="font-size: 20pt;"><b>Michigan 75, VCU 72. </b></div>
https://www.maizenbrew.com/2013/3/22/4136386/michigan-wolverines-virginia-commonwealth-rams-ncaa-college-basketball-shaka-smart-trey-burkeFouad Egbaria2013-03-21T20:17:18-05:002013-03-21T20:17:18-05:00Michigan 71-SDSU 56. That was fun.
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<img alt="That was fun." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/YeNqrVyjqupH7mmxJIztne79h_A=/0x190:2667x1968/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/10197549/164242586.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>That was fun. | Gregory Shamus</figcaption>
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<p>Michigan starts slow but gets a big win against South Dakota State in the first second round.</p> <p>It wasn't <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/145685/trey-burke" class="sbn-auto-link">Trey Burke's</a> day, but thanks to his teammates, it didn't have to be.</p>
<p>Glenn Robinson came out hot in the second half on the way to 21 points on 8/9 shooting. <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/123897/tim-hardaway-jr" class="sbn-auto-link">Tim Hardaway Jr</a>. was only slightly less brutally effective, scoring 21 on 8/13. If that wasn't enough, <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/175045/mitch-mcgary" class="sbn-auto-link">Mitch McGary</a> was 6/9 with eight rebounds and 13 points in his third start of the season. He provided defensive pressure all over the court, adding two steals and a block.</p>
<p>Burke struggled with his shot, going 2/12 for just six points. Still, his ball handling and passing led the way for the offense and helped spark GRIII's post half run of 11 straight points thanks to two Trey Burke kickout assists.</p>
<p>The Jackrabbits were paced by <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/101127/brayden-carlson" class="sbn-auto-link">Brayden Carlson's</a> 20 points, with both forwards <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/101128/tony-fiegen" class="sbn-auto-link">Tony Fiegen</a> and <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/124328/jordan-dykstra" class="sbn-auto-link">Jordan Dykstra</a> adding a dozen points. Point guard <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/101126/nate-wolters" class="sbn-auto-link">Nate Wolters</a> struggled to score as well, going 3/14 from the floor and needing four FTs to hit ten points.</p>
<p>Michigan now awaits the winner of Akron-VCU to find out Saturday's matchup in round <strike>two </strike>three.</p>
https://www.maizenbrew.com/2013/3/21/4133676/michigan-basketball-ncaa-tournament-2013-south-dakotaZach Travis2013-03-21T11:10:42-05:002013-03-21T11:10:42-05:00Five keys to tonights UM-SDSU game
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<p>The Wolverines have a pretty important game tonight. Here's a list of a few things to pay attention to during the game.</p> <p>If you're looking for our full preview, click <a target="_blank" href="http://www.maizenbrew.com/2013/3/20/4128048/michigan-wolverines-south-dakota-state-jackrabbits-college-basketball-ncaa-tournament-trey-burke">here</a>.</p>
<h4>Chicks dig the long ball</h4>
<p>There are many similarities between Michigan's offense and SDSU's, and in most cases, Michigan is the more efficient team. But one area where SDSU has an advantage could hurt Michigan big. The Jackrabbits are a very dangerous three point shooting team. They boast the ninth best three point percentage in the country (39.4%) and are solidly in the top-100 when it comes to distribution of three-pointers compared to field goals (36.4 3PA/FGA, 77th nationally).</p>
<p>This could be no bueno for a Michigan team that hasn't always had the best luck dealing with three point shooting teams. Think back to just last week vs. Wisconsin, when the Badgers took control of the game with a barrage of three point shots in the second half. <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/101126/nate-wolters">Nate Wolters</a> is a skilled passer and scorer, and if Michigan sags off shooters on the outside it will open up shots that SDSU can convert. Four SDSU starters shoot over 35 percent from three with over 100 attempts, so this is a team that will take and make shots from outside.</p>
<h4>The Nate Wolters Show</h4>
<p>A solid amount of this three point success is generated from the point guard position. Michigan fans should be very familiar with this, as Nate Wolters is a bigger version of <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/145685/trey-burke">Trey Burke</a>. A hyper-efficient scorer (22.7 ppg with an eFG% of 55.9) that can dish out assists at a high rate (An assist rate of 34.5 is in the top 50 nationally and a 12.5 turnover rate is downright Burke-ian in its efficiency considering the high dependence on the point guard position to handle the ball), Wolters is a matchup nightmare. He shoots nearly 40 percent from three and draws an average of six fouls per forty minutes, which puts him in the top 100 nationally in that stat. Hell, he even averages over five rebounds per game.</p>
<p>Michigan is going to have its work cut out for it checking Wolters. Putting Burke on him could be a recipe for disaster as you risk running your star player ragged on both ends of the court. However, that leaves either THJ or Stauskas as the only other starting options. I would guess that LeVert gets some significant minutes and spends most of them guarding Wolters to give Burke a break.</p>
<h4>Youth movement</h4>
<p>Michigan is the youngest tournament team in Kenpom's experience metric. <a target="_blank" href="http://mgoblog.com/content/unverified-voracity-needs-word-epic-only-moreso">It isn't even close, really</a>. Meanwhile, Michigan is facing a squad that is 44th in the nation in experience with an average of 2.18 years. The starting lineup consists of two seniors and three juniors.</p>
<p>Michigan starts two freshmen (three if McGary starts), and a sophomore. In all, five freshmen get non-blowout minutes. Only <i>two upperclassmen</i> play at all for Michigan.</p>
<h4>Possessions</h4>
<p>I've (and everyone else) has talked all year about how well Michigan holds onto the ball. The Wolverines are first in the nation in turnover percentage at 14.3. This is another striking similarity between the two teams as SDSU sits 10th nationally at 16.3 percent, a lot of it thanks to the aforementioned Wolters.</p>
<p>Given how well these two teams hold the ball, turnovers could be a big deal. "What?" you say, "that doesn't make sense." Bear with me. Both teams struggle to force turnovers (Michigan is slightly better with a turnover rate of 18.9 forced compared to 17.1 for SDSU). There won't be many to go around in this one, thus adding a lot of value to the ones that do happen. The team that wins the turnover battle -- and more importantly score more points off those turnovers -- is going to have a good leg up on the other.</p>
<h4>Second chances</h4>
<p>This is one of the areas that Michigan is going to have to win. SDSU has solid height spread across its roster. The starting lineup measures 6'4, 6'4, 6'6, 6'7, and 6'8. What the Jackrabbits don't have is someone really big. They still manage to do a good job keeping other teams off the offensive glass (10th nationally with an allowed OR% or 26.0). Michigan has had some problems on the glass this year, but that has been against Big Ten teams that have more size and athleticism down low. On the year Michigan is gathering in 32.5 percent of its offensive rebound chances, and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/175045/mitch-mcgary">Mitch McGary</a> is seventh nationally in OR% with an OR% (16.5) better than most players DR%.</p>
<p>Michigan is probably going to have problems with SDSU's three point shooting, and second chance points on offense will be a good way to mitigate those shots on the other end by keeping possessions fruitful and drawing fouls (something else SDSU doesn't do much: foul).</p>
<p>--</p>
<p>This is a matchup that Michigan should win. The Jackrabbits are a dangerous offensive team with some serious defensive issues. However, this one will probably come down to whether or not SDSU gets hot from outside. If that happens, it'll be a short tournament for Michigan unless the Wolverines find a way to dominate in other areas (rebounds, turnovers).</p>
<p>Go blue.</p>
https://www.maizenbrew.com/2013/3/21/4131618/michigan-basketball-ncaa-tournament-2013-south-dakotaZach Travis2013-03-20T17:59:23-05:002013-03-20T17:59:23-05:00Previewing (4) Michigan-(13) South Dakota St.
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<figcaption>USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Well, here we are. Win or go home. </p> <p style="font-size:large;"><b>Exposition </b></p>
<p>Ordinarily, I use this section to set the stage for the coming game: what has happened in the recent past, relevant story arcs, trends, initial fleeting thoughts before the hard numbers and bold predictions come rolling down the mountain. On a long journey such as this, you need to pull out your map from time to time to make sure you know where you are. We've reached the point where maps do you no good. There's no turning back, no time for recalibration, no recourse.</p>
<p>As things were leading up to the Indiana game at Crisler, the stakes are similar in form but greater in scope: win or it's nothing. Michigan lost to Indiana at home after a put-back danced off the rim with impudence, and left Michigan without a share of the title for a team that for much of the season appeared to be much better than last year's iteration.</p>
<p>But, better or worse, the Big Dance doesn't care. In 2011, Connecticut lost seven of its last 11 games to close out the regular season. They went on to win the Big East Tournament, dispatching Georgetown, Pitt, Syracuse and Louisville along the way. Then, of course, they strung together six more wins after that, with <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/52415/kemba-walker" class="sbn-auto-link">Kemba Walker</a> leading them to national championship. That squad certainly wasn't the best UConn team in the past 10 years or so, and yet they pulled it off with a little bit of Kemba Walker and some tournament magic.</p>
<p>I'm not saying Michigan is set to reprise that UConn run, but I'm saying there's a chance. A small chance, to be fair, but a chance nonetheless.</p>
<p>Of course, if Michigan doesn't win Thursday, then the above retroactively becomes a sad tale of wishful thinking.</p>
<p>The South Dakota State Jackrabbits come in at 25-9 (13-3), Summit League champions after defeating North Dakota State, 73-67 in the final last Tuesday. This team is a 13-seed for a reason, and yet they are just the sort of squad that can give Michigan a run for its money.</p>
<p>After all, we've seen that story before.</p>
<p style="font-size:large;"><b>The Opponent </b></p>
<p>It seems a little ridiculous to break down a squad that I hadn't seen at all before casually taking in the aforementioned Summit League final. However, as you probably know by now, six foot four inch senior guard <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/101126/nate-wolters" class="sbn-auto-link">Nate Wolters</a> is the guy who makes it go. Earlier today, Seth Greenberg and Jay Bilas used the names <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/28248/jimmer-fredette" class="sbn-auto-link">Jimmer Fredette</a> and Steve Nash when attempting to pin down what Wolters brings to the floor.</p>
<p>Obviously, Wolters is neither of those guys, but he won't have to be to beat Michigan. Not to beat a dead horse, but being D.J. Cooper is more than enough to beat Michigan when it is off its game.</p>
<p>Wolters is the sharpshooter who will likely be giving John Beilein et al nightmares tonight. SDSU will space the floor and, as we've found to be the case all season, get the ball moving and Michigan becomes all sorts of discombobulated. All it takes is one failed rotation and it's lights out. Wolters averages 22.7 ppg and is no scrub when it comes to dishing to his teammates (5.8 apg). He shoots 39% from three, but against Michigan you can expect most guys like him to outshoot their season average.</p>
<p>Based on the scant highlights I've seen and things I've read/heard in the past couple of days, Wolters is a legitimate NBA prospect (albeit a fringe prospect, but he's getting looked at, which is a big deal given the number of players occupying NBA rosters vis-a-vis the NFL).</p>
<p>Six foot eight inch <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/124328/jordan-dykstra" class="sbn-auto-link">Jordan Dykstra</a> is the second-leading scorer for the Jackrabbits, pitching in 12.5 ppg. Naturally, he only shoots 45% from the field overall but is hitting 43% of his treys. That is going to be a problem.</p>
<p>Six foot seven inch junior forward <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/101128/tony-fiegen" class="sbn-auto-link">Tony Fiegen</a> and six foot six inch senior guard <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/101129/chad-white" class="sbn-auto-link">Chad White</a> both pitch in 10 ppg apiece. Yes, Wolters is the clear headliner on this team, but it's certainly not as if some other guys can't hurt you, <i>especially</i> when you're keying on him heavily and generally sloppy with your rotations. Also of note: White is shooting 43% from downtown as well.</p>
<p>Six foot four inch junior guard <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/101127/brayden-carlson" class="sbn-auto-link">Brayden Carlson</a> pitches in 8.7 ppg of his own, shooting a respectable 35.6% from three.</p>
<p>Rounding out the eight man rotation are 6'3''ish guard <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/146109/taevaunn-prince" class="sbn-auto-link">Taevaunn Prince</a> and <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/176935/jake-bittle" class="sbn-auto-link">Jake Bittle</a>. At 6'9'', <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/124327/marcus-heemstra" class="sbn-auto-link">Marcus Heemstra</a> is the tallest guy on the roster but comes off of the bench. He averages just under 12 minutes per game but shoots 56% from the floor and a cool 78% from the line, pretty good for a big man.</p>
<p style="font-size:large;"><b>The Gameplan</b></p>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;"><b>SWITCH EVERYTHING FERGODSAKES. </b>Save Fiegen, SDSU's starting five can shoot the three, and they're all between 6'4'' and 6'8''. The fear of a mismatch shouldn't much of one at all, or, at least, not as much as a defender getting caught on the screen and leaving an open three or a simple pass to one. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;"><b>More LeVert, please. </b>Michigan's defense has failed it for some time now, but a salient sub-point here that separates Michigan from teams like Ohio State and Indiana is the lack of a true defensive stopper. Now, I'm not saying LeVert is like my Bulls' <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/52442/jimmy-butler" class="sbn-auto-link">Jimmy Butler</a> just yet, but he gives Michigan a little more length and agility, which will be the name of this game on the defensive end. When anyone other than Wolters puts it on the floor, Michigan should be okay. But, when he does, someone needs to check him and prevent those deadly drive and kicks. If it's not Burke, who has upped his defensive game in a huge way this season, it might have to be LeVert. He's shown flashes of defensive ability throughout the season. If Stauskas is not getting it done from outside, LeVert should get a little more run. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;"><b>Play the three-point line. </b>This is always easier said than done, especially when a team is full of three-point shooters and a guy like Wolters who can do it all. If only you could just face guard everybody, things would be just great. Alas, that would be as disastrous as trotting out a starting five of penguins with sprained flippers. SDSU was <a href="http://statsheet.com/mcb/teams/stats?season=2012-2013&conf=&games=&stat=threefg_attempted&stat_type=">first in the Summit</a> and 59th in the nation in three-pointers attempted. So, maybe, let's not let them do that. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;"><b>Pace. </b>I'm completely disregarding the possessions per game stat for this one considering the two conferences from which these teams hail. Athletically, when SDSU does miss and/or produce long rebounds, Michigan needs to run. The fewer sets that gradually become <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/145685/trey-burke" class="sbn-auto-link">Trey Burke</a> "save us" moments, the better. The Jackrabbits won't be able to hang with Michigan in the open floor, and Michigan <i>should </i>be able to do some work on the offensive glass as well. </span></li>
</ul>
<div style="font-size:large;"><b>Miscellaneous Stats </b></div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;">The Jackrabbits are <a href="http://statsheet.com/mcb/teams/stats?season=2012-2013&conf=&games=&stat=ft_rate_pct&stat_type=">255th in the country</a> in free throw rate (32.8%). </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;">Wolters, nationally, is: 4th in minutes per game, 5th in field goals made, 4th in points per game and 8th in free throws made. Needless to say, he fills it up like Denard Robinson makes fast people look incredibly slow. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;">SDSU is <a href="http://statsheet.com/mcb/teams/south-dakota-state/team_stats?type=all">7th nationally in free throw percentage</a> and points per possession. They are 59th in 3PA and 55th in 3P%. When they get to the free throw line, they've hit 76.3% as a team, but they don't get there too often. Additionally, they are 244th in offensive rebounding percentage. </span></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div style="font-size:large;"><b>Ending Thoughts, Predictions, Etc. </b></div>
<div><br></div>
<div>This is a game in which there will likely not be a lot of middle ground. Despite last year's misstep, 4-13 matchups usually don't go the way the Ohio game did last year (even if a 13-seed has risen up to defeat a 4 in <a href="http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/page/tcmen13trends/2013-men-ncaa-tournament-bracket-trends-consider-making-picks-field-68">each of the last five tournaments</a>). This game will either be a nailbiter or Michigan wins it fairly comfortably.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>SDSU has one absolutely tremendous player and a few others who shot the ball well and benefit from Wolters' abilities. They won't pick up too many offensive rebounds and they won't get to the line much. Yes, this basically sounds like a far less athletic and talented version of Michigan.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>With that said, I'm having a very hard time picturing Michigan losing this game, the mediocre close to the season notwithstanding. If Michigan advances and faces VCU, that's a different story.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>Of course, SDSU could end up hitting all of their surely open threes and Michigan's freshmen could flounder under the pressure, leaving Burke to do it all once again. This could happen, but I just don't think it will. This time, Michigan looks the underdog in the eye and says, as they say in Spanish: <i>no. </i>
</div>
<div><br></div>
<div style="font-size:large;"><b>Michigan 78, SDSU 63. </b></div>
https://www.maizenbrew.com/2013/3/20/4128048/michigan-wolverines-south-dakota-state-jackrabbits-college-basketball-ncaa-tournament-trey-burkeFouad Egbaria2013-03-20T07:00:31-05:002013-03-20T07:00:31-05:00A Look Ahead at VCU
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<figcaption>USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>If Michigan survives its 4/13 game on Thursday vs. South Dakota State, the Wolverines are probably going to face a very tough VCU team.</p> <h4>Resume</h4>
<p>VCU is not one of those teams you want to see in the second round.</p>
<p>The Rams have in Shaka Smart's four years, been one of the best mid-major teams in the country, and easily, the most successful. His second year saw VCU make the final four, and last year VCU narrowly missed a Sweet Sixteen birth after a two-point loss to Indiana.</p>
<p>This year, VCU has put together a very good regular season. The Rams finished second in the Atlantic 10 behind Saint. Louis (losing both in the regular season and in the conference tournament final), and compiled an overall record of 26-8.</p>
<p>The Rams lost three in the non-conference, all three respectable losses. A two point loss at the hands of WItchta St at home, a nine point loss to Duke, and a three point loss to Missouri. Meanwhile, VCU piled up wins against Kenpom top-100 teams like Memphis, Belmont, Alabama, and Lehigh.</p>
<p>The conference season and tournament saw the Rams add eight more Kenpom top-100 wins including two each against Saint Joseph's and UMass, and one against Butler.</p>
<h4>The team</h4>
<p>VCU has an impressive cast of players, and the Rams don't have one player that averages over 30 minutes per game.</p>
<p><b>Treveon Graham</b> has the highest usage rate on the team, and he leads the way with 15.5 points per game. He is both a deep threat (36 percent from three) and a threat to attack the basket and get points (5.5 fouls drawn per forty, 73 percent FT%).</p>
<p>The 6'9 <b>Juvonte Reddic</b> leads the team in both OR% and DR% and shoots 57 percent from the floor. He holds down the middle for VCU both offensively and defensively. On offense he scores 14.4 ppg and has the second best offensive rating on the team (117.9). On defense, he leads the team in block rate, averages almost a steal and a half per game, and has a very favorable foul rate (41.0).</p>
<p><b>Darius Theus</b> runs the point, and he does so in commanding fashion on both ends. His assist rate is 30.1 (tops on the team and 102nd overall in Kenpom's individual rankings), and his steal rate is 5.4 (second only to Briante Weber on the team, and 6th nationally ). He is also a capable, if underused, three point shooter at 34 percent on 44 attempts.</p>
<p><b>Troy Daniels</b> is "just a shooter". He has hit 40 percent of his 288 three-point attempts. He also has just 43 two-point attempts and 25 FT attempts. <b>Rob Brandenburg</b> is the other starter, and another athletic scorer/defender, that shoots 34 percent from deep with a good steal percentage.</p>
<p><b>Melvin Johnson</b>, <b>Briante Weber</b>, and <b>Teddy Okereafor</b> all get time off the bench, and all boast impressive steal percentages.</p>
<h4>Misc. stats</h4>
<p><b>Steals</b>. The Rams have got them. Lots of them. VCU leads the nation in defensive TO% at 28.7, as well as steal percentage at 17.1 -- both a full percentage point ahead of second place Louisville. VCU will force turnovers, and lots of them. Michigan's top rated TO% offense could have a swift test.</p>
<p><b>Consistency</b>. Soph guard Briante Weber averages 2.9 rebounds per game, 2.8 assists per game, and 2.8 steals per game. The man knows what he likes. Not quite three.</p>
<h4>Eh?</h4>
<p>VCU is not a fun matchup. If Michigan meets the Rams in the second round, it will see a strong defensive team that excels when creating chaos. The Rams play at a fast pace (adj tempo 68.4, 63rd fastest nationally) and can exploit mistakes quickly. The VCU offense has a similar offensive profile to Michigan: shoot a high eFG%, don't turn the ball over, hit the offensive boards, and do all of it without getting to the line. On the other side of the ball, VCU is the polar opposite. Where Michigan is an inconsistent, on-its-heels defense, VCU is a constant attack.</p>
<p>If this matchup happens, Michigan won't have to worry about too much of a dedicated post presence, but with the Wolverine's struggles defending the three at times this year, things could swing quickly if Michigan's offense isn't its normal careful self with the ball. While Trey Burke can handle himself against this defense, Michigan's wings are going to have to deal with this pressure defense on the perimeter and still find shots. Meanwhile, Michigan is going to need an active day from Mitch McGary and the rest of the fives, as VCU has a weakness keeping opposing offenses off their own glass.</p>
<p>This is a game that Michigan could win if it came down to it, but a lot of people are picking VCU in their bracket for a reason.</p>
https://www.maizenbrew.com/2013/3/20/4126012/ncaa-tournament-2013-vcu-virginia-commonwealth-michiganZach Travis2013-03-19T13:00:08-05:002013-03-19T13:00:08-05:00A quick look ahead at the 12-seeded Akron Zips
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<figcaption>USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>A quick look at a potential second round (or third, or 84th, whatever they call it now) opponent, the Akron Zips. </p> <p>The Wolverines are set to take the floor in Auburn Hills against the South Dakota State Jackrabbits this Thursday, and the blogosphere has <a href="http://www.maizenbrew.com/2013/3/18/4118684/first-look-south-dakota-state-jackrabbits">already gotten</a> to <a href="http://www.maizenbrew.com/2013/3/18/4120894/ncaa-tournament-2013-michigan-game-info-south-dakota">previewin'</a>. So, with a couple of days to go yet, we might as well look ahead to the other side of the pod.*</p>
<p>*No, Guy On The Internet, it does not matter if we "look ahead." You are a fan, and your thoughts are not space-time-continuum-altering mind bullets.</p>
<p>With that said, let's take a brief, introductory look at the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/teams/akron-zips">Akron Zips</a>, the 12-seed in Michigan's region. The Zips will take on VCU at 9:45 ET on Thursday, so if Michigan makes it past SDSU then we will know who the next opponent will be relatively soon thereafter.</p>
<p><b>The Resume </b></p>
<p>The Zips finished the season 26-6 (14-2) in the MAC, <a href="http://espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=330752006">beating the Ohio Bobcats</a> (yes, them) to end the season, 65-46, to win the MAC title. Wolverine-killer D.J. Cooper went 0/8 from the field (0/6 from three) for the Bobcats, scoring just three points. The Zips actually <a href="http://www.cleveland.com/sports/college/index.ssf/2013/03/akron_zips_overcome_to_win_mac.html">trailed at the half</a>, making the victory even more impressive.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Akron had four front court guys hit double-digits in points, with forwards <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/52216/chauncey-gilliam">Chauncey Gilliam</a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/144996/demetrius-treadwell">Demetrius Treadwell</a> leading the way with 13 points apiece on a combined 11/20 mark from the field. Needless to say, it was a smashing victory against an Ohio squad that took North Carolina to overtime last season for a spot in the Elite 8. Ohio appears to be pretty good once again, and Akron just dismantled them.</p>
<p>Akron's six losses came against: Coastal Carolina on Nov. 9, an overtime loss against 5-seed Oklahoma State in Puerto Rico, at Creighton, at Detroit, at Buffalo and, most recently at home against the MAC East's third best team, behind (Akron and Ohio), Kent State.</p>
<p>As far as common opponents go:</p>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;">Cleveland State--Akron beat them by 30, Michigan beat them by 30. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;">Western Michigan--Akron won its only meeting, 65-43, on Jan. 9. Michigan dispatched the Broncoes with ease, 73-41, way back on Dec. 4. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;">Penn State--Well, we know how Michigan did against the surprisingly gritty Nittany Lions. <a href="http://espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=323230213">Akron beat Penn State by 25</a>, also in Puerto Rico. </span></li>
</ul>
<div><b>Personnel </b></div>
<div>Seven-footer Zeke Marshall paces the Zips with 13.0 ppg and 7.1 rpg. Insert standard grumbling about Michigan not being able to handle size.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>Six foot seven inch junior forward Demetrius Treadwell pitches in 11.4 ppg and 7.9 rpg, and has notched double-doubles in his last three outings. Throw in <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/144998/nick-harney">Nick Harney's</a> 9.7 ppg and you have a pretty solid front count there.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>Unfortunately for Akron, <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2013/3/7/4076992/alex-abreu-suspension-arrest-akron">point guard Alex Abreu was arrested</a> and did not play in the Zips' last three contests. I would've liked Trey Burke's chances against a 5'10'' guy anyway, but moving down the depth chart at the point would make this even more of a mismatch. Abreu was Akron's deadliest three-point shooter, hitting at a 39% clip on the second-most attempts.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>The Zips have won without Abreu, even dismantling Ohio, but will they have enough to win a game in the Big Dance without him? You never know, but it seems unlikely.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div><b>Miscellaneous Stats </b></div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;"><b>Akron led the MAC</b> in points per possession <a href="http://statsheet.com/mcb/teams/akron/team_stats?type=all">at 1.08 per trip</a>, also good for 51st nationally. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;"><b>Center Zeke Marshall leads</b> the MAC in<a href="http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/player/akron/zeke-marshall"> field goal percentage, eFG% and true shooting percentage</a>. Nationally, he is 5th, 9th and 13th in those categories. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 9px;"><b>Pace-wise, Akron is, like most teams, </b>"faster" than Michigan. The Zips are <a href="http://statsheet.com/mcb/teams/stats?season=2012-2013&conf=&games=&stat=possessions_avg&stat_type=">second in the MAC</a> in possessions per game (67.5 per), good for 139th nationally. </span></li>
</ul>
<div><b>Rough Assessment</b></div>
</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>The Zips don't shoot the three <i>exceptionally </i>well (33.7%, <a href="http://statsheet.com/mcb/teams/stats?season=2012-2013&conf=&games=&stat=threefg_pct&stat_type=">4th in the MAC</a>, 185th nationally), but if they do get by VCU then you might have to worry about Michigan's chances of checking what seems to be a solid front court. On a simpler level, Michigan should worry if Akron moves on, period, because VCU is a pretty good squad in its own right.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>Of course, here is where I'll make the obligatory reference to last year's Ohio game. Did you know that Akron is also a small MAC team from Ohio, and that Michigan is once again a 4-seed this year? Well, it's true. I bet you didn't know those things, kind of like you probably didn't know that Denard doesn't tie his shoes and Tommy Zbikowski was a boxer.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>Either way, this is nothing more than a cursory look at this team; a more comprehensive one should follow, assuming Michigan and Akron both advance. On paper, it's hard to imagine Akron getting by VCU without Abreu, but, then again...it <i>is </i>March.</div>
https://www.maizenbrew.com/2013/3/19/4122804/michigan-basketball-ncaa-tournament-2013-akron-zipsFouad Egbaria2013-03-18T17:49:27-05:002013-03-18T17:49:27-05:00Michigan-SDSU Game Info
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<figcaption>USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Get all the info you'll need for the game right here.</p> <p>(4) <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/teams/michigan-wolverines">Michigan Wolverines</a> vs. (13) South Dakota State University Jackrabbits</p>
<p>South Regional</p>
<p>Thursday, March 18th; CBS, 7:15pm ET</p>
<p>Michigan: 26 - 9 overall, 12 - 6 in the Big Ten. 10th in Kenpom's overall rankings. 21st in RPI rankings.</p>
<p>SDSU: 25 - 9 overall, 13 - 3 in the Summit Conference. 102nd in Kenpom's overall rankings. 62nd in RPI Rankings.</p>
https://www.maizenbrew.com/2013/3/18/4120894/ncaa-tournament-2013-michigan-game-info-south-dakotaZach Travis